Thank God @POTUS was elected and our country’s border no longer looks like this.
These images out of Spain are an unfortunate reminder of the consequences of mass migration and the radical left-wing globalist policies that have enabled the Invasion of the West.
@BillMelugin_: "Just look here, do you see any women or children? I mean most people would call these folks so-called asylum seekers. These are young guys just flooding into the country and overwhelming what if any border there is."
$BTC just printed a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.
To make matters worse for the bottom callers, the candle closed below the blue line, again.
Probabilities continue to increase of price hitting the yellow & pink lines.
The bank of Japan has made a huge intervention to prevent the Yen from breaking down versus the Dollar.
If this doesn’t work - what else can they do and what are the consequences if that doesn’t work?
I expect Mamdani's public grocery stores will not offer significant price discounts relative to budget grocers. Thinking about his mandate they make things cheaper reminded me of "parchment guarantees" and this speech from Justice Scalia.
Japan's 10 year yield is ready to explode higher from 2.8% to 4% over the next 30 days.
The entire market rally since 2016 has been driven by QE and the Japanese yen carry trade liquidity.
Nothing stops this train.
Nasdaq put in its higher versus Gold back in 2000!
Nasdaq recovered a bit after the 2011 blow off top, but it looks like the next leg down has already begun.
Thanks to @NorthstarCharts for brining it up in our video.
10 numbers every investor should know by heart:
6.9%
Real annualised return of stocks over 200 years. After inflation.
72
Divide by your return rate = years to double your money.
At 8%: 9 years. At 12%: 6 years.
40%
Of your total long-term stock return comes from reinvested dividends.
Spend them instead and you burn 40% of your compounding engine.
2%
Average annual inflation.
Over 30 years it cuts your cash’s purchasing power in half.
Over 50 years it destroys 73% of it.
10
The number of best trading days per year.
Miss them over 20 years and you lose half your returns.
Most fell during bear markets.
0.98
Correlation between S&P 500 and earnings growth over 30 years.
In the short term, sentiment rules.
In the long term, fundamentals always win.
4%
Safe withdrawal rate in retirement.
Historically lasts 30+ years without running out.
−14%
Average intra-year drawdown of the S&P 500.
Every year. Normal. Expected. Ignore it.
+36.4%
Average S&P 500 return in the 12 months after a midterm election year bottom.
The most reliable seasonal pattern in markets.
100%
Percentage of 20-year rolling periods that delivered positive real returns.
Every single one. In 150 years of data.
Save these.
They are worth more than most financial advice you will ever pay for.
The last can private equity will kick down the road
"Private equity (PE) firms have acquired large life insurers and loaded their balance sheets with private credit assets that are opaque and difficult for regulators to value...when a life insurer becomes insolvent, state-based guaranty funds protect insurance policyholders by "assessing" surviving insurers to cover the shortfall. In most states, such outlays are fully creditable against state premium taxes over time..PE-owned life insurers reflect a structural transformation in which an insurer supports a broader asset-management business that is designed to extract value upfront and impose losses on others. PE firms exploit this regulatory regime by pairing life insurers with private credit to capture value from both sides" #privateequity #privatecredit #insurance
https://t.co/MSwkuVeYBN
It’s crazy how many people think they will be able to retire with one or two million in 30+ years.
You will need AT LEAST $5 million to retire comfortably unless you want to eat ramen every day.
The sooner you understand this, the better.
I’m going to hand you the secret to becoming a profitable trader right here in this post, and most of you still won’t use it.
You’ll think it’s too simple. Or you’ll read it, nod, and go right back to looking for one more chart, one more opinion, one more indicator, one more person to agree with you, like if enough things line up, the trade suddenly becomes safe.
That’s the mistake.
You’re still looking for certainty in a game that was never going to give it to you.
The job is a lot simpler than people make it.
Find where the setup actually matters. Know where your idea is wrong. Know how much you’re risking. Be okay with that before you enter. Know what you’ll do if price confirms, and know what you’ll do if it doesn’t.
That’s it.
If you have those answers, you have enough. If you don’t, no amount of confidence, indicators, or outside agreement is going to save you.