On-Chain Mind

₿itcoin & Crypto Data Analysis 🧠

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

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#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Bitcoin recoveries are not quick.

Historically, full round trips from peak back to new highs have taken around 847 to 1,184 days.

Patience is the most underrated skill in markets.

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@ChrisFromAT Bottom sounds plausible, but I think we top much, much higher than that next cycle

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Cycle lows tend to cluster near the 400-day mark from the top.

We are only around day ~240.

History does not run on a stopwatch, but it does say this process usually takes longer than people want.

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@andresblitz Exactly, hence my base case is expect something slightly different

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@ChrisFromAT The general cycle certainly is

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@quantpilotapp Would be textbook picture perfect wouldn’t it

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@LLicket That’s the main thing 😄

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@OrderflowAca Well done

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

The Bitcoin ETFs are now selling $200-300M a day.

That’s nearly half of all the capital leaving the network.

The cohort everyone called “diamond hands” is the one heading for the exit, and it changes how this downtrend reads 👇🏼

https://t.co/KjzpsMLok6

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@HayKing369 We’re not likely to escape this region immediately that’s for sure

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Bitcoin’s Mean Reversion Oscillator is now approaching levels typically associated with bear market bottoms.

The further it falls, the more asymmetric the risk-reward becomes.

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@HayKing369 @MaksimXBT 👀

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Mate, people have been saying this for 15+ years.

Bitcoin is slow because it’s optimised for security, neutrality and final settlement, not pretending to be Visa.

It’s survived every ban, crash, obituary and “bubble bursting” call so far, while the network keeps producing blocks every 10 minutes. That’s kind of the whole point.

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Bitcoin spends 96% of its life below its all-time high.

Almost the entire return is made in the other 4%, in short violent bursts most holders never wait around for.

I explore every drawdown in Bitcoin’s history, and what the data says actually happens next👇🏼

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Bear markets create knowledge.

Bull markets create confidence.

If you can survive multiple cycles, you’ll learn the difference.

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@WellspringGP You could say that

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@RicoPointEth Never had to be immediate

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

We’ve just wicked outside the lower bounds of the Kernel Envelope.

With the lower baseline sitting around $69K, this has historically been a region where downside becomes statistically exhausted and mean reversion takes over.

Even during this bear market, that setup has consistently favoured a bounce.

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@Elixir_XBT Ah I thought I’ve seen you before

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@QuoteJenks2 Not yet but maybe in the future! There’s lots of new features being added weekly 😄

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@JasonMP78 It’s highly probable

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

@TimBitKamp Alts aren’t looking pretty either