Jitesh Choudhary

turning decades into dividends 👽

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

@saurabh_gunjal_ welcome to the jungle brother!🤩🙏🏻

[Patterns @Patterns0001]

HISTORY SHOWS:

Whenever Nifty stayed flat for 2 years, the Next 5 years delivered strong returns

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

crazy times. ab jab markit upar jaata he toh logo ko risky lagne laga he? 🤣

#NIFTY rallying up and at the same time ATM straddle pricing in the risk premia, lol.

[Sarang Sood @SarangSood]

CAS at 3:15 wasn't enough entertainment.

Now individual strikes take random breaks too.

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

payrolls night. forecast 56k, previous 21k. actual 162k.

everyone positioned for a cooling us labour market and it came in 3x hot. rate cuts got deleted, dollar up, yields up and gold, which pays you nothing for holding it, repriced in one candle. -1.7% in minutes. $4,472 → $4,394.

silver didn't even wait for its own reason. dragged -1% on mcx by pure correlation.

the mechanism is boring and that's the point: gold vs jobs data is just gold vs "will the fed cut." strong jobs = no cuts = no reason to hold the zero-yield metal tonight.

3 years of nfp fridays say the same thing avg intraday range 1.68% vs 1.23% on normal days, but average direction ~zero. the number guarantees you a move. it never promises which way.

first friday every month, 6pm ist. mark it.

#Gold #Silver #MCX #NFP #Commodities

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The Fed is now expected to hike interest rates at their September 16th meeting after the August jobs report nearly tripled expectations.

Market expectations for a September rate hike are surging, now up to a 53% chance.

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

month 1 of the program done. tough month, honestly

selling options post CAS is a different sport. premium doesn't die after 2pm anymore, it just sits there pricing the 3:15 auction lottery.

one tuesday an OTM call did 40x in the auction hour. two days later the same auction flash crashed 3%

after all of it: +1.7% for august. worst day -2%, every number reconciled against contract notes

not the seller's paradise it used to be. still fine if you leave the party before 3:15 😭

#AlgoTrading #Nifty #CAS #OptionSelling

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

today's lineup: q1 gdp tonight, msci rebalance, around $2 to 5bn of passive flows depending who you ask. Jio ipo cleared, month end

the entire msci reshuffle executes through the 3:15 auction. the same mechanism that printed a 2,200 pt flash crash on thursday. biggest CAS stress test since it went live

my algo will read none of it. at 9:45 it measures the opening range against vix and hands me a number. that number doesn't know what msci is

flat before the auction, as always. tonight i'll read the gdp print like everyone else as a spectator

#Nifty #Sensex #CAS #MSCI

[Ashish Gupta @AshishGupta325]

Traders waking up on Monday but realizing there's MSCI rebalancing too apart from CAS session.

Good night.

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

Thursday Sensex Expiry : sensex down 539, and the closing auction briefly printed 2,200 pts lower before clawing it back.

settlement is a lottery drum now

algo trades: sold puts 9:58, stopped -7k by 10:25. mandatory 30 min cooldown, the rule that once cost me 24k to disrespect.

re-entered short 10:55, covered 1:52pm. +8.6k net, note-verified

tuesday the auction gifted a 40x to call buyers.
yesterday it took 3% from whoever was short the print. option premium at 3pm is pricing that coin flip, not theta.

evening silver book went long at 6:10, out by 9:22, +11.1k net. +19.7k for the day across both books, all reconciled

#Sensex #CAS #DelinkCAS #ExpiryDay

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

sensex bounced ~230 pts yesterday morning. algo sold the 78000 CE into it at 10:03 for 196

market spent the rest of the day rolling over. IT dragged, sensex closed -183 at 77,473. covered at 12:37 for 112. +27,028 net, off the contract note

best day on this book's record.

sell the morning hero, fade by lunch. wednesdays in this market.

#BSE #ExpiryDay #algotrading

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

25 Aug 2026.

nifty opened 44 down at 24,175 yesterday and then decided to do nothing.

hovered around 24,150 for four straight hours. proper dead expiry.

morning algo sold the 24150 straddle at 9:46 for 75 pts, book closed 1:02pm at 51. +15,527 net.

then 2:20 happened. ~180 pt rip, closed 24,334, the exact high.

the 24300 CE did 40x in the last hour.

CAS expiries are two different markets in one day now. crazy times guys.

#CAS #DelinkCAS #Nifty50 #Expiry

[R @AlphaWizarDD]

FIIs + DIIs pumped in ₹40,000 cr since Aug 3.

Nifty still fell — from 24,800 to ~24,200.

Market's been stuck in a 23,800–24,800 range for 5 months.

HDFC Bank — India's most valuable stock — is sitting near its 52-week low.

Meanwhile margin funding (MTF) book just hit an all-time high of ₹1.4 lakh cr.

Institutions are buying.

Retail is stuck holding leverage in a market going nowhere.

Something has to give.

Not investment advice. DOR.

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

India just changed how the stock market closes. And two days in, NSE and BSE printed different closing prices for the same stocks.

Let me break down what's actually happening. 👇

What changed (Aug 3, 2026)

SEBI rolled out the Closing Auction Session (CAS) for all F&O-eligible stocks. Instead of the closing price coming from continuous trading right up to the bell, the last stretch of the day now works like an auction:

→ Continuous trading in these stocks stops at 3:15 PM → 3:15–3:30 PM: orders get pooled (reference price first, then market + limit, then limit-only)

→ 3:30–3:35 PM: everything matches at a single equilibrium price, the price where the maximum quantity can trade

→ That equilibrium price becomes the official close

F&O trading got extended to 3:40 PM. Non-F&O stocks still close the old way at 3:30.

The use case (why SEBI did this)

The old system had a weak spot: a few large orders in the final minutes could nudge the closing price. That closing price matters — it's what index funds, ETFs and derivatives settle against. CAS is designed to make the close harder to manipulate, tighten price discovery, and cut tracking error for passive funds. It also brings India in line with how most developed markets already close.

How traders reacted ?

Mixed, leaning skeptical.

Global and passive investors welcomed it fewer tracking errors, cleaner benchmarks. But domestic brokers, arbitrage desks and intraday traders raised a real worry: does India have deep enough two-way liquidity for a thin 20-minute auction to price stocks fairly? A small order imbalance in a shallow auction can produce a "technically valid but economically unreliable" close.

The numbers everyone's pointing at.

The clearest signal came from the exchanges themselves. In the first days, NSE and BSE closed the same blue-chips at different prices names like Trent, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finance, M&M, Titan, TCS and UltraTech showed visible gaps.

Several Nifty stocks even closed meaningfully above their 3:15 PM levels, which pushed Nifty and Sensex to diverge on the day. A first-day derivatives expiry landing on the same day didn't help.

Analysts expect these gaps to narrow as liquidity in the auction window deepens, but for now, the close itself has become a talking point.

Now I want to hear from the people:

If you trade say especially intraday or F&O how have your last two sessions gone under CAS? Has the new close helped, hurt, or just confused your exits? And do you think Indian markets have the liquidity to make an auction close work?

Genuinely curious where the desk sits on this one.

#StockMarket #SEBI #WealthManagement #Trading #IndianStockMarket #CapitalMarkets

[Shijumon Antony @Shijumonantony]

@SEBI_updates @SEBI_India @NSEIndia @BSEIndia

Stop facilitating manipulation. This is a scam. #CAS_Scam

Traders: Please repost if you agree

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

India's most-hyped IPO just did something nobody expected.

It pressed pause.

PhonePe — 46.85% of every UPI transaction in this country — got its SEBI approval in January, filed its updated DRHP, and then quietly shelved the listing. Official reason: "market volatility."

Most people read that as "they'll list when markets recover." This is the real story:

1. You're not buying growth. You're buying an exit.

The entire offer is an Offer for Sale. Zero fresh capital goes into PhonePe. Every rupee goes to existing shareholders cashing out — Tiger Global and Microsoft selling their entire stakes, Walmart trimming ~9%. When the smartest early money is using your application form as its exit door, that's not a red flag. But it's a question worth sitting with.

2. The thing that makes PhonePe huge is the thing regulators want to shrink.

NPCI has proposed that no single UPI app processes more than 30% of total volume. PhonePe is at 46.85%. The company's single greatest strength is sitting 17 points above a cap that, if enforced, directly caps its core engine. The DRHP lists this as a risk. It's not a footnote — it's the whole thesis.

3. Revenue lines here can vanish by government memo.

In FY25, rent payments brought in ₹1,262 crore. Real-money gaming added ₹245 crore. Both got switched off in 2025 after RBI and policy changes. A business where a regulator can delete a revenue stream overnight deserves a different multiple than one where it can't.

The good news buried in the same document: revenue grew 40% to ₹7,115 crore, and 42% of it now comes from beyond UPI — merchant payments and financial services. The diversification is real.

So here's my read:
PhonePe is a genuinely great company wrapped in a genuinely hard valuation question. The pause isn't weakness — it's discipline. Seven of eleven mainboard IPOs in 2026 listed at a discount. PhonePe waiting is the rational move.

But when it does come back, don't read the GMP. Read the risk factors.
That's where the real story always was.

#WealthManagement #PhonePe #IPO #Fintech #UPI #IndianMarkets #Investing

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

Two weeks ago, finance LinkedIn was on fire.

⚠️ "Crude is at $82." "Strait of Hormuz is closing." "Your portfolio is about to pay the Iran tax."

Here's where we actually are today:

Brent crude — $78 a barrel. Down ~21% in a month. Trading near its lowest level since early March.

The same conflict that was supposed to drain your portfolio? Oil round-tripped — spiked on the headlines, then bled back down as ceasefire talks took over.

So what's the lesson for anyone managing money?

The market doesn't pay you for reacting to the scariest headline. It pays you for knowing which shocks are permanent and which are just noise with a loud voice.

A geopolitical spike is a flow problem — fear bidding up a barrel of oil. It fades the moment the tankers move again. A structural shift — demand collapse, a supply regime change — is a stock problem. That one stays.

Crude in June was flow, not stock. The investors who rebalanced in a panic on June 9th are the ones nursing the real loss today — not from oil, but from selling into fear.

The Strait is still a live risk. Iran reportedly threatened to close it again on June 20th. This isn't over.

But "this isn't over" and "sell everything" are not the same sentence.
Sitting still is a strategy. Most weeks, it's the winning one.

#WealthManagement #CrudeOil #BehavioralFinance #IndianMarkets #Investing #Geopolitics

[Sarang Sood @SarangSood]

Bear markets don’t destroy people with red candles alone. They do it with green candles that change nothing.

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

₹15.15 lakh crore in alleged revenue inflation.

That's not a typo. That's the scale of what SEBI is alleging against Rajesh Exports — one of India's largest listed gold jewellery companies.

On June 3, 2026, SEBI dropped a 109-page interim order that's shaken the markets.

⚠️ Here's what allegedly happened:

→ 97–99% of Rajesh Exports' consolidated revenue came from its overseas subsidiaries (mainly Switzerland-based Valcambi SA)

→ When SEBI cross-checked, the subsidiary-level revenues didn't match what was reported at the group level — by a staggering amount

→ Purchases of ₹11,400 crore were made through a broker who denied knowing the company — and didn't even show up in GST records

→ ₹1,035 crore was reportedly invested in African gold mining assets, with no supporting documentation ever produced

→ Both the company and its promoter-chairman Rajesh Mehta have now been barred from the securities markets

Now here's the part that should make every investor pause.

LIC — with its army of analysts, access to management, and decades of institutional experience — held a 10.8% stake throughout. As the stock fell nearly 49% over the past year and most institutional investors quietly exited, public money stayed in.

If a team of professional analysts with every possible advantage couldn't see this coming, what does that say about the information available to the rest of us?

This isn't a dig at LIC. It's a reminder of something finance teaches you early but the markets teach you harder:

Picking individual stocks isn't just about finding good businesses. It's about detecting what isn't visible — manipulated revenues, opaque subsidiaries, auditors who missed the obvious, and promoters who knew exactly what questions not to answer.

Most of that information never reaches a retail investor. Ever.

This case is still unfolding. The full picture is emerging. But the lesson it's already leaving behind is one worth sitting with.

#RajeshExports #SEBI #IndianMarkets #CorporateGovernance #StockMarket #Investing #WealthManagement #PersonalFinance #FinanceIndia #InvestorAwareness

[Jitesh Choudhary @onlyhustlin]

⚠️ Watch the language, not the number.

The number came in as expected — repo rate held at 5.25%. Third consecutive pause. No surprise there.

But the language? That's where it got uncomfortable.

Here's what actually changed today:

➡️ The RBI revised its inflation forecast from ~3.5% to 5.1%. In one meeting. That's not a nudge — that's a rethink.

➡️ Core inflation is now projected at 7.4%.

➡️ FY27 GDP forecast was cut to 6.6% — down from 6.9%.

➡️ The rupee hit ₹97 to the dollar last month. FPIs have pulled out ₹2.47 lakh crore this year.

And Governor Malhotra's phrase of choice? "Preserve optionality."

That's central bank language for: we don't know what's coming, and we're not committing to anything.

No rate cut in sight. And Standard Chartered's call for a hike before year end is looking less like an outlier now.

The hold was the easy part. What comes next isn't.

hashtag#RBI hashtag#MonetaryPolicy hashtag#RepoRate hashtag#IndianMarkets hashtag#MPC hashtag#WealthManagement