Rachit Jain

🤦🏽‍♂️ Professional Mistake Maker

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

Learn to separate conviction from impulsiveness. Sustainable wealth generally outperforms quick wins.

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

@BSEIndia this is happening at every 600 diff in CE STRIKEs

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

how does algo deal with this kind of situation AT THE MONEY call no buyer/selller and still 44.5 L volume

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

what is the source of this information....
Is @REDBOXINDIA really broadcasting news or manipulating indian markets..
Just unwanted spikes

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

@Ankit_Quant Yes as
Primary IP &
Secondary IP

[Raghav Wadhwa @raghavwadhwa]

Markets have crashed by 13% since the Middle East war started. Smallcaps are down 22%.

I went back and studied exactly what happened during the Russia-Ukraine crash of 2022 — sector by sector, week by week.

It's almost the same script playing out again.

The Setup — 2022 vs 2026

Russia-Ukraine (Feb–Jun 2022):
→War broke out Feb 24.
→Brent crude spiked from $90 to $127.
→FIIs sold roughly ₹70,000 Cr in a single month.
→Nifty dropped from around 18,000 to 15,183 — an 18.4% peak-to-trough fall.
→India VIX crossed 30.

The worst-hit sectors were IT (down 22%), Realty (down 20%), and Auto (down 18%). Energy and PSU stocks barely flinched — down just 5%.

Middle East Crisis (Feb–Mar 2026):
→US-Israel-Iran conflict escalated.
→Brent crude crossed $100.
→FIIs have dumped ₹60,000+ Cr in the March series alone.
→Nifty has fallen from around 26,000 to 22,900 — about 13% so far.
→India VIX spiked to 27, the highest since June 2024.

The worst-hit sectors? Auto (down ~15%), Realty (down ~15%), IT underperforming since February. Energy and PSU names? Down only 5-6%.

Same sectors leading the fall. Same sectors holding up. Same FII behaviour. Even the VIX spike is in the same ballpark.

Now Here's the Part That Actually Matters — What Happened AFTER the 2022 Bottom

Nobody talks about this during a crash. Everyone's too busy doom-scrolling.

After Nifty bottomed in June 2022, here's how sectors recovered over the next 3 months:

Nifty Auto rallied 45% from the bottom.
Metals bounced 35%.
Financial Services recovered 30%.
Midcaps and Smallcaps both came back 25%. Bank Nifty gained 25%.
IT was the last to recover, up just 12%.

The pattern is mechanical, not emotional. When FIIs panic-sell, they dump the most liquid, highest-beta names first. When the selling stops, those exact names snap back the hardest.

Auto led because it was the most oversold relative to its actual earnings. IT lagged because global tech weakness was a separate issue from the war.

Applying the 2022 Template to Today

If history rhymes, the sectors that have corrected the most right now should lead the recovery.

Here's what's most beaten down:

Smallcap 250 index is down 22% from highs.
PSU Bank index has crashed 16% in just one month.
Auto and Realty are both down around 15%.
IT has been quietly underperforming since six months.

On the other hand, energy stocks are down only 5-6%. Defensive names like NTPC and Power Grid actually posted small gains on some of the worst crash days.

If 2022 is the playbook, Auto and Financials lead the rebound. Metals could outperform if supply disruption keeps commodity prices elevated even after tensions cool.

5 Data Points Beneath the Panic

These are the numbers I'm watching more closely than the Nifty level:

→ FII net shorts are at 250,000 contracts. In 2022, similar levels marked the bottom. Short covering alone can push the market up 5-7% in a few sessions.

→ India VIX at 27+. In 2022, it peaked around 33 and started dropping before prices recovered. We're close to peak fear but probably not there yet.

→ DIIs have been net buyers in every single session during this crash. Domestic institutions are quietly accumulating what FIIs are throwing away. Same exact pattern as 2022.

→ Goldman Sachs just cut India's GDP forecast by 1.1% to 5.9% and downgraded Indian equities from "overweight" to "market weight." For context, Goldman downgraded India in March 2022 as well. The market bottomed 3 months later and rallied 25% by December. Brokerage downgrades near bottoms are a feature, not a bug.

→ India's Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped into oversold territory. Historically, this has been one of the more reliable contrarian signals.

⚠️ THE HONEST PART — WHY THIS TIME COULD BE DIFFERENT

I'm not writing this to sell you a feel-good "buy the dip" story. There are real differences between 2022 and now that you should understand before deploying capital:

Crude at $98-100 is more sustained this time. The Strait of Hormuz is an existential chokepoint for global oil supply in a way that Ukraine never was. If Hormuz gets disrupted, crude doesn't stop at $100 — it goes to $120+.

Goldman raised India's CPI forecast by 70 basis points. If inflation stays sticky, RBI won't be able to cut rates to support recovery the way it eventually did post-2022.

This conflict involves direct US military engagement, not just economic sanctions. The escalation risk is structurally higher.

Valuations aren't as cheap as 2022. Nifty was trading at ~18x PE when it bottomed in June 2022. Right now we're still at roughly 20x. Another 5-10% down before we hit genuine value territory is very possible.

And specific sectors face real headwinds regardless of war resolution. Cement companies are looking at ₹200-250 per tonne cost increases from higher pet-coke. FMCG and paint companies derive 20-50% of input costs from crude-linked materials. Airlines are getting crushed between high fuel costs and no pricing power. Singapore refining margins have actually gone negative at -$9.4 per barrel.

The pattern rhymes. But it's not a photocopy.

📋 THE FRAMEWORK — How to Position Right Now

Based on the 2022 recovery template overlaid with current correction data, here's how I'd sort the sectors:

Likely to recover first when tensions ease: Auto (most oversold vs fundamentals), Financials and Banks (FII short covering + rate cut narrative returns), Metals (supply disruption keeps prices elevated + potential China stimulus).

Slower recovery: IT (global macro weakness is independent of the war), FMCG and Paints (input cost headwinds will persist even if crude softens to $85-90).

Be careful with: Airlines (direct crude exposure, zero pricing power at current load factors), Oil marketing companies (refining margins have turned negative — BPCL, HPCL, IOC will bleed until crude stabilises).

Contrarian opportunity if you can handle the volatility: PSU Banks — down 16% in a month, many now offering dividend yields above 5% at these prices. That's higher than most FDs. And smallcaps with zero debt plus purely domestic revenue — these are insulated from both crude and rupee risk.

One Final Thing

Nifty crashed 18.4% in 2022. It felt apocalyptic. People were liquidating SIPs.

Within 6 months, the index was back at pre-crash levels. Within 12 months, it was at all-time highs.

The investors who sold at the bottom missed a 25%+ rally. The ones who bought during peak fear compounded at 30%+.

I'm not saying the bottom is in today. It might not be. Another 5% down is a real possibility.

But here's what I am saying: every single geopolitical crash in Indian market history — 2001, 2008, 2020, 2022 — has been a buying opportunity when viewed from 12 months later. Every single one.

The question isn't whether the market will recover. It always does.

The question is whether you'll still have capital and conviction when it does.

.....

Data references: ICICI Direct Geopolitical Impact Report (March 2026), NSE India, Bloomberg, Trading Economics.

Disclaimer: Not investment advice. Markets can absolutely fall further. This is a data comparison for educational purposes. Always do your own research.
Save this. Come back in 90 days. Let's see how it ages.

Follow @raghavwadhwa for more data-driven market breakdowns.

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

and the beauty is amid all global tension ISRAEL is enjoying 😀😉

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

The US has better energy self-sufficiency and a stronger “safe-haven” currency/status.

This is pure market reaction to events — not structural weakness in India’s economy. Stay calm, avoid panic selling, and use dips selectively if you have a long-term view.

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

Quick Snapshot (as of March 3, 2026 evening IST)

The Indian stock market (via Gift Nifty) is indeed under sharper pressure right now compared to the US, but both are bleeding due to the same core trigger: the rapid escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend.

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

Bottom line
The root cause is the weekend US-Israel strikes (killing Iran’s Supreme Leader) + Iranian retaliation, spiking oil and fear. But India feels it more because we are a massive oil importer, vulnerable to FII flight, and already trading at a sentiment low.

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

@Iamsamirarora @Flipkart If I win, I promise not to run a course called:
‘How Samir Arora changed my life in 7 charts.’

[Rachit Jain @onlyrachit]

"Data dominates. If you've chosen the right data structures and organized things well, the algorithms will almost always be self-evident." — Rob Pike

[Stockizen Research ll SEBI RA @Stocki_zen]

Discussion in Parliament on Capital Gains Tax.

I fully agree with the view.

Watch and share!!