Onur

building agents | prev data & ml @opensea @nansen_ai @mcgillu

[Lisan al Gaib @scaling01]

OpenAI is no longer comparing themselves to Anthropic

guess they are now comparing themselves only to their group for tied 2nd place

Anthropic >> OpenAI, Google, SpaceX AI ?

[Onur @OnurES_]

i would do this in a heartbeat too. just give me fable access

[Theo - t3.gg @theo]

If Anthropic put out a $1000/month tier that gets 5x the $200 tier limits and also lets us keep Fable access, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[Onur @OnurES_]

initial impressions: fable is amazing

[Fabricated Knowledge @fabknowledge]

Total victory.... holy shit

[Onur @OnurES_]

probably a good time to revisit this
hyperliquid

[Onur @OnurES_]

probably something like this:

pipe investors dump dat stock -> mnav goes negative -> buy pressure stops -> coins dump -> dat stocks dump harder -> management starts dumping the coin to buy back the stock -> coins dump even harder -> multi year bear market

[Midnight Capital @Midnight_Captl]

“Yeahh I dumped my $NVDA to go buy the next bottleneck in the supply chain. Ticker symbol is $0028.0006 it trades on the Sri Lankan stock exchange. They make some kind of glue or something man i don’t even know haha, but it’s a big bottleneck i heard”

[Onur @OnurES_]

still true

[roon @tszzl]

not enough people are emotionally prepared for if it’s not a bubble

[Onur @OnurES_]

agi is still very underpriced. everyone still thinks more of the same, just a bit better.

we will see a very different world in next 5 to 10 years

[Daniel Eth (yes, Eth is my actual last name) @daniel_271828]

Your kids will not work 3.5 days a week or live to 100. They might work much less than 3.5 days, or much more. They might live much longer than 100. They might die in an extinction event. But things won’t be just a bit better than now. Dimon isn’t taking AI seriously enough

[Onur @OnurES_]

@reach_vb 👋

[Steve Hou @stevehou]

The stock market has been highly rational. Not everything went up. And it’s not just a junk profitless tech rally either as we all know that Cathie is very good at hoovering up those. Instead, the right things went up a lot (maybe more than they should).

[smac @0xsmac]

"it's a bubble"

[Andrew Côté @Andercot]

Humanity spent 5x the Starship Development Costs on NFTs

[Onur @OnurES_]

i built that

[Peter Steinberger 🦞 @steipete]

All I want is codex automatically entering /review mode after it's done and just looping until it stops finding booboos.

(Yah I'm gonna build that)

[Onur @OnurES_]

This makes no sense?

sure, labs use internal models, but why would the rest of SV be ahead of RoW?

and why is NY ahead of RoW?

like they magically adapt to AI models faster and everyone else is still using Sonnet 3.5?

[Elad Gil @eladgil]

People at major AI labs (using internal models) 3-4 months ahead of startup silicon valley engineers

SV founders/eng 3-6 months ahead of NY

NY founders/eng 6-12 months ahead of rest of world

Most people have no idea how fast AI shifting as 1-2 years behind SOTA

"The future is here, just not equally distributed" - Robert Heinlein

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

I think OpenAI + Anthropic will end 2026 with a combined ARR of $160B-$200B

[David Orr @orrdavid]

$TSM at 20x earnings, $GOOG at 30x earnings... it just doesn't seem like a bubble at least in the main stocks. Maybe kind of expensive, maybe not though.

If the core doesn't seem insane, I just don't get how we call this market a bubble. Expensive, sure. Some pockets are insane, of course - like always.

[METR @METR_Evals]

We evaluated an early version of Claude Mythos Preview for risk assessment during a limited window in March 2026. We estimated a 50%-time-horizon of at least 16hrs (95% CI 8.5hrs to 55hrs) on our task suite, at the upper end of what we can measure without new tasks.

[Citrini @citrini]

People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable.

A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations.

The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around.

Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets.

But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.