Max

PhD student. Data scientist adopted by environmental epidemiologists. Interested in causal inf, modelling, meta-science, epi, policy etc. Sports enthusiast.

[Max @Oostermax]

@MoeSquare see my blog analysis here https://t.co/nrR9U8fFjF

[Max @Oostermax]

@MoeSquare some of the best pk takers in the world do something like a stutter (eg Kruse, Bruno Fernandes, Lewandowski) players with stutters consistently show up as best deceivers iirc. i would say it’s a high variance skill: some do it exceptionally well, others quite horribly bad

[Max @Oostermax]

And bonus: all of Mbappe his penalties. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

[Max @Oostermax]

France - Morocco penalty taking and stopping skills. Two of the very best penalty stoppers with Maignan and Bounou. Both teams consist of very average penalty takers on the other hand. If they get to a shootout, we may see multiple saves. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

[Max @Oostermax]

And bonus: all of Mbappe his penalties. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

[Max @Oostermax]

France - Morocco penalty taking and stopping skills. Two of the very best penalty stoppers with Maignan and Bounou. Both teams consist of very average penalty takers on the other hand. If they get to a shootout, we may see multiple saves. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

[Max @Oostermax]

My model believes a shootout between Morocco and France would be a literal coin toss! #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #FRAMAR

[Max @Oostermax]

@ItalianScallian thanks!! good to hear as I’ve been struggling to find an audience for it (was lots of fun to do though)

[Max @Oostermax]

@ItalianScallian thanks! was quite some work haha. for this WC I also assembled a dataset with 330k penalties and I’m using these to estimate penalty skill for players and goalkeepers https://t.co/nrR9U8fFjF I then use this for plots like these and tweets like these: https://t.co/K5LxqgDrtu

[Max @Oostermax]

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland should sub Keller on for Kobel. Per my model: 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. This could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

[Max @Oostermax]

@rajsinghchohan on average they convert penalties at roughly the same rates as other positions. see https://t.co/FfrMa3lNN5

[Max @Oostermax]

and here are the other estimated skills for both teams. Camilo Vargas is really excellent at stopping penalties! Columbia their penalty takers seem to be (sub)par however. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

[Max @Oostermax]

if Switzerland vs Columbia gets to a penalty shootout, they should bring on Keller for Kobel to increase their shootout chances by 8 percentage points (per my Monte Carlo simulation based on estimated skill levels)! #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

[Max @Oostermax]

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland should sub Keller on for Kobel. Per my model: 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. This could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

[Max @Oostermax]

@PieterZwartNL

[Max @Oostermax]

If we get to a shootout, Switzerland should sub Keller on for Kobel. Per my model: 77% chance that Marvin Keller is the better penalty stopper. This could improve their chances from 39% (with Kobel) to 47% (with Keller) in the shootout! #SUICOL

[Max @Oostermax]

and here are the other estimated skills for both teams. Camilo Vargas is really excellent at stopping penalties! Columbia their penalty takers seem to be (sub)par however. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #SUICOL

[Max @Oostermax]

Messi and penalties: likely even below average over this career. He's been especially bad at deceiving the keeper, ranking in the bottom decile in sending the goalkeeper the wrong way. #WorldCup #WC2026 #FIFAWorldCup #EGYARG

[Max @Oostermax]

And to conclude, penalty takers for both teams. Tielemans has not always been a sure bet for penalties surprisingly enough! The US squad has not taken many penalties. The reversal of Balogun's suspension could harm the US's shootout chances #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026

[Max @Oostermax]

Which Matt defends the net for a US-Belgium penalty shootout? The US has rotated both, but my model backs Matt Turner. Data gives him a 77% probability of being the superior career penalty stopper (other pk statistics below) #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup

[Max @Oostermax]

Courtois is a surprisingly average penalty stopper compared to the other great goalkeepers at this World Cup. Model suggests Lammens would probably do about as well, maybe even better. #USABEL #BELUSA #FIFAWorldCup #WC2026 #WorldCup