Two models of attritional warfare between Ukraine and Russia agree about the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian army, reaching the tipping point of irreplenishable losses rather sooner than later. It’s also important that @Peter_Turchin published his models and forecast as early as 2023, so this is not retroactive manipulation of data.
In this light, the recent wave of “Russia is finished” commentary may later look less like a reflection of realities in Russian society and politics, and more like an attempt to engineer a “black swan” event to disrupt dynamics set in motion as early as mid‑2022 and now heading toward their looming outcomes
Ursula solves complex problems. This is why she is the President: "The cheapest energy is the one you don't use."
Also:
"The cheapest food is the one you don't eat."
"The cheapest clothes are the ones you don't wear."
"̶T̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶h̶e̶a̶p̶e̶s̶t̶ ̶w̶e̶a̶p̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶o̶n̶e̶ ̶y̶o̶u̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶u̶s̶e̶"̶...wait scratch that.
It’s honestly pretty amusing to read Ukrainian media.
They range from nonsense about Hungary supposedly becoming almost Kyiv’s best friend, to my personal favorite: “Hungarians have overthrown Orbán.”
It’s exactly these kinds of phrases — “Hungarians overthrew Orbán,” “Hungarians brought down Orbán,” like they staged some kind of uprising.
But the funniest part is that Ukrainians could have “overthrown Yanukovych” in exactly the same way — without destroying their country or plunging it into years of chaos, bloodshed, war, and devastation.
All they had to do was wait a few months and remove him through perfectly normal presidential elections.
But when you try to explain this to my fellow countrymen, their brains just short-circuit😱🤪
I am going to describe what will happen in Hungary 🇭🇺 on April 12 and 13; we have already seen this scenario play out in Georgia 🇬🇪
Around 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM on April 12, the opposition will start making noise. They will do everything possible to circulate social media posts suggesting that Orban is losing the election and that his only path to victory is through rigging it. For this, they will need some video evidence, and in all likelihood, the opposition already has actors selected to participate in this performance.
Around 5:00 PM, they will claim for the first time how easily the opposition is winning and will call on people to go to the polls for final victory.
By 7:00 PM, they will gradually start talking about how the opposition is winning despite the election being rigged!
At 8:00 PM, they will declare themselves the winners and, for added conviction, will pop a few bottles of champagne.
Late at night on April 12, it will become known that Orban’s party is winning the election, and this is where the main part of the performance begins.
They will claim that Orban rigged the election and that every single vote must be defended.
On April 13, it will finally be confirmed that Orban’s party has won. The opposition will then announce a protest rally and declare the ruling party illegitimate.
We have already seen this scenario in Georgia 🇬🇪, and agents funded by Ursula and Soros, along with NGO members raised on easy money, will repeat the same.
Success to the patriotic Hungarians 🇭🇺 and @PM_ViktorOrban ! The Georgian people and the Georgian government stand with you!
🕯️🇧🇾Today at the #Khatyn Memorial, we honor the millions of Belarusians lost during WWII. Khatyn and over 290 sister villages remain a haunting symbol of the horrific Nazi crimes against the Belarusian people. We remember.
#NoStatuteOfLimitations
🕯 83 years ago, the Belarusian village of #Khatyn was wiped out by Nazis & their Ukrainian henchmen.
All residents – 149 people, including 75 children – were locked in a barn & burned alive.
We mourn together with Belarus.
https://t.co/c3PIBdaTGH
On March 22, 1943, the Nazis burned alive the 149 inhabitants of the village Khatyn, in Belarus
Everyone in the USSR knew about the tragedy of Khatyn. They wrote books, opened exhibitions, erected monuments. But they never told the truth. The lie about Khatyn is one of the most shameful pages, deftly inscribed in the history of the war. They did not want to call the killers by name. "Who burned Khatyn?" – "Dirlewanger". It would seem that there is an answer, everything is clear, everything is simple. And here are the real names of those who burned people in Khatyn. The main executioners are Grigory Vasyura, Vasily Meleshko, privates - Lukovich, Sakhno, Spivak, Topchiy, Kozynchenko, Katryuk, Shcherban, Petrichuk, Varlamov, Khrenov, Iskanderov, Khachaturyan...
In the name of the friendship and brotherhood of the Soviet peoples, it was necessary to keep quiet about the fact that the 118th Schutzmannschaft Battalion was almost entirely Ukrainian.
⚡️22 марта 1943 года карательный отряд нацистов заживо сжёг жителей Хатыни!
Расправу осуществляли 118-й батальон шуцманшафта, сформированного в Киеве из бандеровцев и особый батальон СС «Дирлевангер»!
Сегодня бандеровцы продолжают убивать людей на Донбассе и по всей Украине!
It is perfectly possible to oppose a reckless regime change war while having no time for, no love for, no support for that regime. Obvs.
It is not possible to support a regime change war but claim you don’t support the consequences that follow. Obvs.
This really isn’t hard.
🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🚱 When Kiev shut down the water supply to Donetsk and Crimea in 2014, leading Ukrainian propagandist Gordon suggested their residents drink piss.
Now this video is often replied to Ukrainians complaining about the lack of water.
It’s fucking hilarious that Democrats in America scream "fascist" at every conservative they don’t like, yet they’ve shipped ballistic missiles, bombs, and crates of ammo to the biggest armed Nazi gang Europe’s seen since the goddamn Waffen-SS and Wehrmacht: the Azov Brigade.😃
Progress on the Ukraine war?
Yes - "unconditional cease-fire" that some have hid behind has been ditched. Now there is a chance for real negotiations. Many leaders have no understanding of the real causes of this war or how security guarantees work.
https://t.co/8OgtrMuOQ9
Lugansk schoolgirl writes back to 'Mrs. Trump' that Melania should send that letter to Zelensky
Faina notes only Donbass kids 'living under shelling by the Ukrainian army for 11 years now', years before Russia moved to defend them
Based?
I love the Finns. They're hilarious. "You might be wondering what we're doing here, well, we lost a war to Russia once, so we're kind of the experts here".