✨ Is the vibe worth the time? ✨Enjoyment.👌🏻Gratitude.🤝Creativity.🫶🏻Mindfulness.🙏🏻🔥Genuine kindred artist w/ colorful ninja stars.⭐️ Ready. Based. Few.🌈
History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:
1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism
4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources
5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order
In 10 years, the US government will be $55-60 trillion in debt (which will be 7-7.5 times government revenue) because there will be $25-30 trillion of additional borrowing. That amounts to about $425,000 of debt per American family.
When I calculate the supply and demand for this debt, I don’t see enough buyers to buy the debt the US needs to sell, which will cause big problems.
We can avoid the worst-case scenario, but we need to act now.
To learn more, I encourage you to read my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.
#raydalio #principles #economics #debt
History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:
1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts
2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation
3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism
4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking resources
5) Populist leaders emerge pledging to take control and bring about order
#principles #raydalio #history #debt
Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur.
"I promise to not raise your taxes" and "I promise to not cut your benefits" are the two popular political promises that are inconsistent with the much more needed promise "I promise to cut the budget deficit to about 3 percent of GDP" that is required to prevent a big debt/dollar crisis. There is no way that the deficit/debt bomb problem can be sustainably dealt with unless there is a mix of tax revenue increases and spending decreases that are determined in a bipartisan way. Our representatives in Washington, DC, both Republicans and Democrats, know this is true. They understand the need to reduce the deficit by having those from both sides chip in a bit (e.g., a 4 percent increase in tax revenue and a 4 percent spending cut) which would lead to a supply/demand balance improvement for US debt which in turn would lower interest rates. Lower interest rates would help reduce the budget deficit as well as help the markets and the economy. But because politics have become so absolutist, they feel they can't go down this obviously best path because both their constituents and their parties will throw them out of office if they explored this more balanced approach. To me, that’s a tragedy.
Funny how “legacy media” or MSM (as I prefer to call it) immediately labels this event a “failure”- negative spins are overplayed IMO.
🌎 needs a refresher for some enlightened positivity. Props to this being 1st time for launching Pres bid on the twit!🐥🏠
Do you remember when you joined Twitter? I do! #MyTwitterAnniversary
It’s funny they even do this anniversary thing.
TBH I don’t tweet often. I encourage everyone to simply have as much IRL fun as possible, it’s cooler than the twit.
@jgraydigital Update: my partner agrees with you about it tasting like suntan lotion. Surprisingly I liked the flavor. Have you tried the new Coca Cola “Move” one? It has a light coconuty flavor; tastes better than the peeps🐥