Ace Ender

Bitcoin is the hurdle rate.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

Assets are overvalued due to artificially suppressed interest rates over the last 20 years, which has created bubbles in real estate and stocks. Bonds provide negative real return. Cash loses purchasing power every year.

The only rational option for long term value storage for non traders is hard assets or undervalued companies if you can find them in an environment of overvaluations, which even Warren Buffet can’t do.

Precious metals were the logical choice for this environment in the past, but that was before Bitcoin arrived on the scene and solved for all of Gold’s shortcomings: difficult verification, difficult transport, difficult storage, and gradual debasement.

Until there is a structural reset and all financial assets are repriced, the only rational place for the average investor to store their long term wealth is Bitcoin.

Diversification is normally a great strategy, but that assumes a functioning financial system that operates according to free market principles.

Unfortunately, we live in a centrally controlled financial system where the Fed has distorted all prices across all assets within the system by manipulating the price of the money the underlies the entire system.

To protect your wealth, you have to step outside of the system and ditch antiquated stores of value like Gold.

Once you realize this, you realize Bitcoin is the hurdle rate, and you become a Bitcoin maxi.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

@most_real_psymd Power law may not have been discussed, but Bitcoin has always been following from it. Diverging from the power law would be a warning sign.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

Either the power law floor or 4 year cycle fractal is broken this year. Both can't play out in tandem.

Power law floor is currently at $58k and rising, and cycle bottom is $48k in October.

If power law floor breaks, then so does the belief that Bitcoin is growing as a network.

That could be catastrophic.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

So far we've been following the fractal almost perfectly, but I get your point.

If/when the power law floor breaks, we'll have nothing left, and the market will react very negatively. At this point, Bitcoin will move on nothing but utter and complete speculation.

Power law is rooted in the belief that Bitcoin is growing as a network. Failure of the power law is a warning sign that the Bitcoin network is failing to grow.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

@ActuallyClimber Power law floor is at $58k and rising. If we go below that, it'll be the first time ever and confidence will really be shaken. We are dangerously close.

If Saylor starts having to sell BTC to pay prefs, it's game over for a long, long time.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

You keep being right, which scares me.

If it underperforms other assets, people will lose interest, and it will in a sense become irrelevant, because who will want to hold it?

I think it either becomes a reserve asset or irrelevant. I think either outcome is possible, I just don't see a middle scenario.

Every other crypto project has basically died, so if Bitcoin doesn't become ingrained in the financial system, it will suffer the same fate.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

You keep saying we won't see certain prices again, but we keep seeing them. The 4 year cycle is playing out as usual, so expect new lows in October.

If cycles keep playing out, Bitcoin will be below $126k (this cycle's high) in 2030.

Think about where the Nasdaq will be by then.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

@NitherDither @BTCtreasuries I think they only care about surviving the bear market so they can explode in the bull. Bitcoiners have learned to stomach 80% drawdowns.

BTCTCs are good to throw in a retirement account that you can't touch for a while. It makes the volatility more manageable.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

You've got nerves of steel. I have to admit, I knew this was coming, but still feel a mental toll.

I keep thinking of switching from shares to options like you mentioned in chat, but might wait until October since we are following the 4 year cycle presicely.

A lower low in October would break the power law floor for the first time, however, which would be disconcerting.

So either the 4 year cycle breaks, or the power law breaks. Hopefully it's the former.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

Can you feel the pressure? This is how diamonds are made.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

@BURNERACCNT256 @sunny051488 If it doesn't work as a store of value, no one will want to hold it. Nobody wants to hold something that makes them poorer, no matter how decentralized it is or how much you can self custody it.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

@BURNERACCNT256 @sunny051488 If Bitcoin remains dormant for a decade like gold, it will mean it has failed completely, and will be worth zero.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

@sunny051488 @BURNERACCNT256 Gold is pretty useless outside some limited industrial uses. Bitcoin is a useful, growing monetary network. People are building on top of Bitcoin, using it as a base layer to reimagine the financial system.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

@sunny051488 @JoelHodlman No. Life is short, and that's half a life span.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

If the 4 year BTC cycle continues to repeat itself, we will be at just above $100k in the summer of 2030.

Think about that.

Every cycle dips below the previous cycle's high. The high in fall of 2025 was $126k, so if the pattern plays out as usual, we'll see sub $126k in 2030.

Imagine where the Nasdaq will be by then.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

It's also sad to think that 4 years from now we will only be at just above $100k. Every cycle falls below the previous 4 year high, so in summer of 2030, expect to see BTC close to $100k. Imagine how much the Nasdaq will be up by then.

My Bitcoin DCA has underpeformed my Nasdaq DCA into my Roth since 2020, but with significantly more volatility.

I know you constantly says BTC DCA outperforms everything else, but that's not true. Nasdaq DCA has outperformed BTC DCA.

BTC is on life support. I converted my 401k to MSTR and ASST during this dip, but am done buying BTC going forward.

The evidence of out performance just isn't there anymore.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

I have gradually rotated out of Metaplanet into Strive since the start of the year. I sold my last Metaplanet shares Sunday night. I wish I would have done it much sooner. Instead of trusting my own analysis, I listened to the other bagholders coping, and doing nothing but speculate, because that's the only thing one can do with Metaplanet, since they literally have no products.

[Ace Ender @orangeyield]

Metaplanet is not a business, as it does not yet have a product. There is the potential for a product, but it's completely speculative at this point.

Last year, many were searching for the next Microstrategy (I'm referring to Strategy in the past tense) and assumed it would be Metaplanet.

The fact is, Japanese markets and participants are vastly different than in the US, and Metaplanet will never be able to run a clean flywheel like its US counterparts even if prefs are approved.

Getting prefs out is still a big "if". Many thought they would have been launched by now, and they were wrong.

We don't even know if Japanese regulators will recognize derivates tradings as qualifying income.

On top of the uncertainty, management has been nothing but cryptic, and has provided no guidance on the process of launching prefs or timelines.

If you are looking for the next Microstrategy, the most obvious candidate is Strive.

Strive is highly amplified, so volatility to the downside is likely during this bear market, but it has 18 months of cash reserves and has a high probability of surviving the bear and exploding into the bull.

It's small in scale, has a clean balance sheet, runs a functioning flywheel, is positioned in US markets, and can learn from Strategy's mistakes. It's actually superior to what Microstrategy was from 2020 to 2024.

If you are looking for the next Strategy, to me, Strive is the obvious choice.