OrcaLayer

🐋 The Clean Data Layer for @Polymarket
📊 Whale consensus · farmer filter · ISW monitor
🛠 Web · API · Python SDK · MCP for AI agents
🔗

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

Just open-sourced orcalayer-mcp — any AI agent (Claude, Cursor) can now pull Polymarket whale data into chat:

→ Leaderboards (farmer-filtered)
→ Smart-money consensus per market
→ Wallet stats + positions

Free, no key. Live whale alerts via Premium key.
uvx orcalayer-mcp · MIT
https://t.co/K4LYDmBOaf

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

Scored signals, not raw tx. The leaderboard/wallet/market tools return computed metrics — NegRisk-corrected win rates, profit factor, smart-money consensus per market. whale_alerts is the one event-style feed: filtered live trades by smart wallets, not a tx firehose. The confidence is in the methodology — farmer filter + NegRisk correction — that's what makes the numbers real. And agreed on auth: keyless public was deliberate, the auth step is where adoption dies.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

Just open-sourced orcalayer-mcp — any AI agent (Claude, Cursor) can now pull Polymarket whale data into chat:

→ Leaderboards (farmer-filtered)
→ Smart-money consensus per market
→ Wallet stats + positions

Free, no key. Live whale alerts via Premium key.
uvx orcalayer-mcp · MIT
https://t.co/K4LYDmBOaf

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

Track the fader on OrcaLayer: https://t.co/SOZbMiNk4m

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

Spain 0-0 Cape Verde was one of the World Cup's biggest upsets.

Polymarket book before kickoff: smart-money whales put $837K YES on Spain by 3+ goals. One wallet faded with $1.4M NO across four trades.
The draw paid the fader.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@Ifeanyi_gmi Spain drew 0-0 and is still 16% to win the whole tournament on Polymarket, level with France. One bad group game; the title market barely blinked.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@unusual_whales Iran says Friday. Polymarket says 24.5% by end of June.

The reopening is a process, not a switch.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

Today on Polymarket:
— Sports back on top: $77M traded across 4,268 markets on World Cup match day — Geopolitics $57M — but across only 662 markets — That's $85K per geopolitics market vs $18K per sports one
The crowd came for the football. The money came for Iran.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

The US-Iran deal reportedly requires Israel to leave Lebanon. Today its defense minister said it won't.
Polymarket's "Israel withdraws by July 31" tripled in volume today, but held at 13.5%.
Traders priced the refusal, not the treaty.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

A US-Iran peace deal was announced this weekend, and Polymarket is pricing the war out market by market.
US invades Iran before 2027: 11.5%. Iran closes its airspace by June 30: 9.5%.
Peace doesn't just end a war. It empties every bet that priced one.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

Today on Polymarket:
Sports owned the volume — $58M across 4,300+ markets, double geopolitics.
But the biggest market was a US-Iran peace deal resolving tomorrow, $5.1M.
It round-tripped: 27% this morning, under 10% midday, 21% now.
A deadline the market couldn't settle.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@RoundtableSpace the lattice + tail probability ridge visual is genuinely creative. nice work
on the dashboard structure.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

The 2026 World Cup hasn't reached the knockouts and the title market is already a three-way photo finish. Spain 16.7%. France 16.5%. Portugal 11.3%.
Half a point separates the top two. The bracket decides the rest.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@Lutchyn13 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketSport Underrated group — and today makes it messier.

All three play this afternoon. Sweden's the bigger favorite to win its match (50.5%) than the Netherlands is (46.5%). Japan trails at 25.5%.

The group-winner odds and today's match odds aren't telling the same story.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@unusual_whales A draft deal and a permanent peace are two different bets.

Polymarket's US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 is at 57.5%. A permanent peace by June 15 sits at 21%.

The market will buy the paperwork. It won't buy the handshake yet.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

This morning Polymarket gave a US-Iran permanent peace deal by tomorrow 27%.
Three hours later: 11%.
The deadline didn't move — the optimism did. Still the platform's most-traded market, $4.8M in 24h.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@se_margl ...The edge was never secrecy — it's getting the data right. The more agents rely on it, the more it's the reference layer, not less useful. And the live feed is gated for exactly the reason you're pointing at.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@BiiGMYLES @agentis_hq @pevraHQ @TurkDogSol Sure, feel free to DM me.

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@unusual_whales Track this wallet on OrcaLayer: https://t.co/APm6MMVH4Q

[OrcaLayer @orcalayer]

@unusual_whales Every headline today says 24 hours. The market says: maybe.

A signed permanent US–Iran deal by Monday is still under a third on Polymarket — and one wallet with a $2M track record just put six figures on No.

It's pricing the signing, not the settlement.