Ordinary Guy Trades

ES Futures | Supply & Demand • GEX • Divergence
Daily game plans + real trades
Real wins. Real losses. No hype

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

I’m publicly documenting my journey trading ES futures.

My approach is built around 3 things:

→ Supply & Demand
→ GEX
→ Divergence

Every trading day I’ll share:

→ My ES premarket game plan
→ Key supply & demand zones
→ GEX levels I’m watching
→ Setups & trades I actually take
→ Wins AND losses
→ Weekly P/L recap

No hindsight-only charts. No guaranteed calls. No hype.

Just an ordinary guy working toward consistency and documenting the process publicly.

Follow along.

$ES_F $SPX

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@Mr_Derivatives @Mr_Derivatives appreciate your support here! It would mean so much as I continue to grind through this.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@realtyking116 @kevinxu Luck is part of the game. Embrace it.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@GAndersonTrades The market is definitely torn between the two. Holding dry powder til an opportunity strikes.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@pdicarlotrader May I ask what you see to be bullish in $NFLX long term?

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@Jimmy56541 Definitely in a chop price action. Prices and charts have been reset every single week.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@1769_alex What are you seeing here? $UBER hasn’t been on my radar but now I’m curious. With $TSLA and $GOOGL, I feel like it's hard to compete with 2 giants.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@MichaelPBento Credit spreads waking up while equities are still near highs is definitely worth watching. That divergence with the market can get definitely interesting fast.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@jbfinancebull 100% agreed. Accountability and self-reflection are must to be a successful trader/investor.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

September 2026.

I started to share my ES futures plans middle of September so I want to take a moment to reflect on why I started this account and where I hope to take it.

A little about me:

I’ve been actively investing for roughly 15 years and trading ES futures for about 6 years.

It’s been a journey — and it definitely wasn’t all peachy in the early days. I’ve made plenty of mistakes, learned some expensive lessons, and I’m still learning today.

So why start this account?

Is it for followers? Subscribers? Another source of income?

Those things would be great someday, but they’re not why I started.

I realized I genuinely enjoy teaching.

I enjoy sharing my plans. I enjoy explaining why I took a trade. I enjoy talking about what worked, what didn’t, and what I learned along the way.

And I want to eventually take that much further than ES futures trading.

X platform is just the starting point.

My bigger goal is to make finance and investing easier to understand and more accessible — whether that’s for someone learning about markets for the first time or, one day, helping introduce financial education to kids as early as K–12.

I have a lot to learn and a long way to go. For now, I’m focused on continuing to document everything transparently, and build the foundation one step at a time.

If that journey interests you, follow along.

We’re just getting started.

$SPY $ES_F $SPX

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@jbfinancebull Thanks brother! 🙏. I wasn’t able to optimize every trade and was able to closely trail my stop losses to ensure a win. Onto next week, let’s go.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

ES WEEKLY RECAP | 9/28–10/2

MON 9/28
1 trade | 1W
+$3,875

TUE 9/29
No trades

WED 9/30
1 trade | 1W
+$2,700

THU 10/1
2 trades | 2W
+$14,837.50

FRI 10/2
1 trade | 1W
+$9,300

WEEK TOTAL

5 trades
✅ 5 wins
❌ 0 losses

Gross P/L: +$30.7K

A lot of the bigger moves happened overnight while NY sessions remained choppy.

Every day, I waited for price to come to the levels mapped out in my game plans rather than forcing something in the middle. I like to play asymmetrical bets, usually in the extremes.

5 trades all week. Patience, level by level.

Real wins. Real losses. No hype.

$ES_F $SPX $SPY

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@jbfinancebull Excellent results! Keep on the consistency. I look forward to your updates in the future!

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

Trade #22 — ES Short ✅

6 @ 7795
→ 6 @ 7764 (TP)

+31 pts avg | +$9,300 gross

Entered per Setup #1 from this morning’s game plan.

ES pushed into 7795 supply but couldn’t reclaim 7811.5. With price already extended following the morning data, I was leaning bearish and looking for a rotation back down.

Closed the full position at 7764 provided 7765 and 7757 range remain to be hard level to break.

One trade is all you need. Don’t chase glory numbers, pursue consistency.

$ES_F $SPX $SPY

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

ES DAILY GAME PLAN | 10/2

Good news is bad and bad news is good. NFP came much lower than expected with unemployment rate higher than expected. Probability of rate hike in October declined. Yields declined. Stocks up.

ES continued the rally yesterday after bouncing directly from 7680 demand, putting bulls back in short-term.

After data, we pumped up to 7795 12H supply. If bulls can reclaim and hold 7811.5, I’ll be watching 7832–7840 next.

🎯 GEX

We’re back in positive GEX territory, with SPY 770 around +$1.5B.

SPY 770 remains the pivot I’m watching.

⚔️ KEY ES LEVELS

🟢 BULLS: Hold 7769 → 7795 → Reclaim and hold 7811.5 → 7832–7840.

🔴 BEARS: Lose 7755 → 7739 → 7705-7710

SETUPS I’M WATCHING

1️⃣ Short 7795
2️⃣ Long 7765-7769
3️⃣ Long 7811.5
4️⃣ Short below 7755

$ES_F $SPX $SPY

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

Trade #21 — ES Short ✅

6 @ 7735
→ 6 @ 7714 (TP)

+21 pts avg | +$6,300 gross

Took the short per the game plan #1 and closed the full position at 7714, right into the 7710–7715 pocket of 12H + Daily S/R.

7735-7740 remained to be the key pivot if we want to respect lower highs trendline from previous overnight.

$ES_F $SPX $SPY

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

Love your analysis. What a volatile overnight price action. I agree with you we are still in bullish bigger picture. It rejected right at SPY 768 to more downside and more lower highs. I'm also looking at SPY 760 as a huge support, and if this breaks, we are definitely in the SPY 750s territory.

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

ES DAILY GAME PLAN | 10/1

What a volatile overnight price action. ES continued to climb after NY session closed. Continued to soar all the way to 7765-7769 range, or SPY 768 overnight just to dump in Europe/London session down to where we started at 7706-7710.

🎯 GEX

SPY 760: -$1.5B
If 760 breaks and price accepts below, I’m watching:
SPY 755: -$1.2B
SPY 750: -$1.3B
SPY 745 Put Wall: -$1.9B

On the upside, SPY 785 continues to get chipped away but still sits around +$1.0B.

⚔️ KEY ES LEVELS
🟢 BULLS: Need to hold above 7738-7740 → 7757 retest. Acceptance above 7757 puts 7777-7785+ in play

🔴 BEARS: Lose 7706 → 7693. Below 7680 opens the door for deeper downside

SETUPS I’M WATCHING
1️⃣ Short 7738-7740
2️⃣ Short below 7706
3️⃣ Long if price holds above 7738
4️⃣ Short 7757

Overall, we still have a bullish structure, but it is important not to be married to one direction or bias. To be honest, today's price action can quickly be overturned by one post by Trump regarding Iran deal.

Whether your strategy is intraday or swing, please remember to always enter with a game plan and strategy.

$ES_F $SPX $SPY

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

Trade #20 — ES Long [overnight] ✅

5 @ 7709.25
→ 1 @ 7757 (TP)
→ 4 @ 7740 (SL)

+34.15 pts avg | +$8,537.50 gross

The overnight move didn’t play out the way I was looking for. I was targeting a larger move through 7777 and potentially chop between 7769-7785 intraday, but price never got there.

But, I continued to play this position level by level. Trailed the remaining position before going to sleep. Nonetheless, I got stopped with a profit.

The bigger move never came, but the points did. Onto tomorrow!

$ES_F $SPX $SPY

[Ordinary Guy Trades @ordinaryguy_io]

@Basssem666 Yes of course. I agree. One day, one level at a time haha. (Especially in this range bound basing period)