@hazadozzarelli 3/ slight ramble, but main point was with less overall monetization from transferability (depreciation benefits) which will seemingly take more of TE, increasingly “hairy” offtake, and higher rates - financing broadly is notable concern for PE strat / proj dev in my mind
@hazadozzarelli 2/ but project rev is becoming increasingly merchant- meaning sell down market is worse / less value realized, and backleverage value is less (esp in relatively higher rate environment). Need to consider what factors drives offtakers - given them that drives sell down + fin
@Iberia_en did not manage to send to send my bag to Spain from JFK and it’s been 3 days - still waiting. Bag is in NY still. This is fucking ridiculous
IMO lack of trust in CEXs means: 1) some retail swapping to fiat and withdrawing to tradfi; 2) some withdrawing tokens to other hot wallets / cold storage; 3) others moving tokens to a DEX. 2+3 leans slightly towards bullish. 1 is short term bearish but long term bullish.
@JustnThePhotog I wouldn't try to rationalize it. Too many factors: tokens frozen (to be liquidated) / stolen, accounts not withdrawal-able (so people acting irrationally), market manipulation. Safe to say you can assume it's NOT an efficient market - don't trade accordingly
near term contagion likely limited to the "FTX Acq" section of names; but the remaining investments already received capital so no immediate risk - but rather go through fire sale to recoup capital - thus valuations will get cut heavy (private markets will be hurting as result)