El Gordo

Step from the road, to the sea, to the sky. Business thrives on asymmetries of information.

[Luis Rodríguez @luisrodriguezrm]

No se olviden del NEUROCHANTA de Manes que nunca ganó nada.

[Manu Ginobili @manuginobili]

Che, juega bien el pibito ese con el 10... Me gusta!

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

When Your Stocks Go Up, Be Careful

One of the strangest truths in investing is that the better an investment performs, the worse an investment it can become. Most investors never realize this because rising stock prices make them feel smarter, safer, and more optimistic. A stock doubles, confidence rises, and the future appears brighter.

Yet a rising stock price does not necessarily mean the investment has become better. In many cases the business improves modestly while the stock price improves dramatically. When that happens, future returns may actually be falling even as investor enthusiasm is rising.

Most investors celebrate when a stock rises sharply. They check their brokerage account and feel validated. The wise investor understands that price and value are not the same thing.

Imagine you own a business worth $100 and one year later that business is worth $115. That is genuine progress because intrinsic value increased by 15%. Now imagine the market suddenly decides the business is worth $180 even though the underlying economics have changed very little.

Most investors treat the extra $65 as evidence that the business became dramatically better. In reality, the difference between price and value may have simply widened. The stock became more expensive, future returns became lower, and risk increased beneath the surface.

This is one of the market’s most dangerous gifts. The market has a habit of rewarding investors before proving them right. A stock rises, confidence grows, and investors begin trusting their conclusions more than they should.

The problem is that a rising stock price may have nothing to do with the quality of the original analysis. Sometimes the market is simply becoming more optimistic and willing to pay a higher multiple. The investor mistakes a favorable outcome for a correct decision and becomes increasingly vulnerable to future mistakes.

The market constantly plays tricks on our emotions. Falling stock prices make investors nervous even when opportunities may be improving. Rising stock prices make investors excited even when opportunities may be deteriorating. The market encourages investors to focus on how they feel rather than what the underlying business is actually worth.

Consider two businesses that both increase intrinsic value by 15% during the year. The first stock rises 15% while the second stock rises 80%. Most investors automatically assume the second investment was superior, but that conclusion may be completely wrong

The first stock may still be reasonably valued and capable of generating attractive future returns. The second stock may have simply borrowed returns from the future by becoming significantly more expensive. The better performing stock may actually be the less attractive investment going forward

Price is the most addictive number in finance. It updates every second, flashes green and red, and constantly demands our attention. Intrinsic value compounds quietly in the background and rarely receives the same attention despite being far more important

The investor who watches stock prices all day is like a farmer who digs up his crops every morning to see if they are growing. The activity creates the illusion of progress without contributing anything useful. Great investors spend their time thinking about the business rather than obsessing over the stock price.

Every time a stock rises dramatically for no obvious reason, resist the urge to celebrate immediately. Instead ask yourself whether intrinsic value increased or whether the difference between price and intrinsic value simply widened. That question will usually tell you far more about your future returns than the stock chart ever will

Most investors ask themselves how much money they made. The wise investor asks how much future return they may have sacrificed. A rising stock price creates wealth today, but when price rises much faster than value it may simply be pulling tomorrow’s returns into the present

🌹

[Warbird 💵 @warbirddotcom]

Lo que trato de explicar siempre es que en la Era de la IA, todo funciona diferente.

Hay acciones muy baratas (Software, $MU, $MELI, $UBER, etc.). Pero eso ya no importa, y les explico por qué:

Las reglas del juego están cambiando y se está construyendo la infraestructura más grande de la historia de la humanidad (US$3 billones de inversión en infra de IA para 2028, y el 80% todavía está por venir).

La forma de hacer negocios cambia 100%. Los agentes y los robots van a transformar TODO — desde los autos hasta cómo manejás una empresa o cómo comprás.

Y en ese mundo, modelos como el software y el ecommerce tienen que cambiar. Aunque terminen ganando estas mismas empresas, el mercado primero quiere comprobar que así sea.

Entonces el análisis que hago y creo que el mercado tambien, y por eso digo ALL IN IA, es este: hay que invertir 100% en lo que SÍ nos podemos asegurar que tiene futuro en esta nueva infraestructura: Chips, GPUs, memoria, neoclouds, cooling, energía. Eso tiene MOATs reales y es el cuello de botella (TSMC anunció Arizona en 2020 y recién está produciendo a escala ahora).

El software lo copiás en meses y aunque este barata una accione, hasta que no cambie su storietelling, el mercado las castiga.

LONG $NVDA $TSMC $MU $NBIS $IREN #BRUN #BE #GOOGl $GEV #CEG

[santi @santtiagom_]

se sumó mucha gente a partir de este tweet 🙏

les dejo mis posts más importantes para empezar a aprender de IA desde cero:

1) Qué es un agente
https://t.co/pR2uGS5Wn2

2) Empezar con Claude Code
https://t.co/1yM8CqZB27

3) Arquitectura de Claude Code
https://t.co/aZQ3ckV99V

4) Anatomía de un Agente
https://t.co/zuh0fACMhm

5) Claude: Prompt, MCP, Skill & Subagent
https://t.co/zhqeIcrVS3

6) Harness Engineering
https://t.co/q09Tqldlia

7) Agente = modelo + harness
https://t.co/afElqdz0sj

8) Guía de Skills (artículo)
https://t.co/JlqTvbTcsi

9) Prompting Engineer con Claude
https://t.co/MCaWjpLJFq

10) Hermes Agent
https://t.co/x8p49RvH2R

espero que les sirva de guía para arrancar 🫡

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@ClaudiFerreira_ 1) Son 500 mil usd, no palos.
2) La auditoría de la UBA es necesaria por una cuestión sistémica, independientemente de quien la pida.
3) Estudié en la UBA y no voté a Milei, pero comentarios como este, dignos de decerebrados, le bajan el precio al socialismo en Arg.

Estupida!

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@eldaminato Short

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@kpak82

[Felipe Núñez 🦅 @Felii_N]

Se patearon casi $7 billones a 2028, 2029 y 2030 (post primer mandato de Milei). No olvidemos de que heredamos mas del 78% de la deuda consolidada en pesos venciendo a 1 día.

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@eldaminato Jajaja excelente, que delirio. Equilibrio fiscal de baja calidad, porque nos descapitalizamos…

[StockWhale @thestockwhale]

I'm going ALL-IN on Mag 7's and buying soon.

I'm building up my positions every single day on these DIPS. THIS is what we were praying for.

Do NOT let this opportunity pass you by!!!

$AMZN, $AAPL $GOOGL, $NVDA, $META, $MSFT, and $TSLA.

Never stop buying these great companies.

[Rose Celine Investments 🌹 @realroseceline]

I have some great news, I am practically finished writing the book. It is approx 65k words across 40 chapters, so at this point it’s mostly proofreading, editing, and finishing the illustrations. This page is from the $MELI case study, one many businesses explored throughout the book.

What’s interesting is that I started writing a book about investing and ended up writing a book about something much bigger. After studying great businesses, great CEOs, capital allocators, acquisitions, mistakes, bubbles, crashes, and decades of market history, I came away with a surprising conclusion.

Most investment success has very little to do with predicting the future. It has far more to do with understanding incentives, recognizing quality, allocating capital rationally, avoiding unforced errors, and then having the patience to let compounding do what it does best.

The greatest fortunes in investing were rarely built by people who found hundreds of great ideas. They were built by people who found a handful of exceptional businesses and held them through years of doubt, volatility, and uncertainty.

Ironically, one of the hardest parts of this entire process hasn’t been writing 40 chapters. It’s choosing a title. I thought I had found one I loved, but the closer I get to the finish line, the more I find myself second guessing it. Any good ideas? Capturing years of lessons, mistakes, insights, and approximately 65k words in just a few words is proving significantly harder than I expected.

🌹

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@realroseceline When is it going to be available? Cannot wait any longer to read it

[Matias Scalbi @MatiasScalbi]

Link al paper: https://t.co/BWQIPOvmmC

[PlotLine @TradeTactician1]

$MSFT let's zoom out and look at the bigger picture since the day to day is frustrating as it gets.
For one, the bottom is already in on #MSFT. RSI trending up + 200 WMA + channel support.

The thesis is intact.
Patience is the trade.
#MicrosoftCommunity

[Roan @RohOnChain]

i can't believe this man just gave away the exact math every Jane Street & Citadel quant secretly studied to get the job:

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@drdetusfinanzas Aunque pongan más máquinas, el cartel sigue siendo válido

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@TraductorTeAma @hugo1969s Que querias que le salten encima? Que le pasen la mano por la pelada? Sos boludo o te cortaron verde?

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@drdetusfinanzas @chtrader @TrendSpider Incomparable el riesgo de vista, pbr y gprk. No tiene sentido.

[El Gordo @oreiteb]

@invertiramateur PYPL por DLO