Warren Buffett: “I Should’ve Bought Google, Not IBM”
Warren Buffett put $10.7 billion into IBM and was wrong for 6 years. He said so on live TV on his 87th birthday.
In 2011 Berkshire bought 64 million IBM shares at about $170 each. 5.4% of the company. He was 81, and it was his first real tech bet.
He had read IBM’s annual report every year for 50 years before the 2010 edition changed his mind.
Then he kept adding. By the end of 2016 Berkshire held 81 million shares.
IBM’s revenue fell for 22 quarters in a row.
In Q1 2017 he started selling at $175. By the fourth quarter he dumped 35 million shares in 3 months.
August 30, 2017. His birthday. Navy suit, red tie, camera on.
“I was wrong in my original analysis. And that’s my fault.”
“Somebody says they never made a mistake. Check them out.”
The part nobody replayed came 90 seconds later.
Asked what IBM $IBM taught him, he started talking about Amazon. AWS from a standing start. He named IBM, Microsoft and Google and said they all let Bezos run.
“You don’t want to let a smart fellow have a big lead.”
AWS did $17.5 billion that year. It runs at $123 billion a year now.
Buffett bought his first Amazon share in 2019. “I’ve been a fan, and I’ve been an idiot for not buying.”
Halfway through explaining tech disruption, he pulls a phone out of his pocket and holds it up. The hottest item around, once. A $20 Samsung flip phone, while he owned Apple.
“Tim Cook’s reminded me of that a few times.”
He has 11 weeks left as CEO.
He called the winner out loud, on camera, in 2017. He just never placed the trade.
What’s the one you called right and never bought?
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