Gordon Shumway

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@yashar @AndrewCFollett @cspan @yashar

Congratulations you're the one person who believes that wasn't a concession speech. Then you woke up this morning on planet clueless and looked down to see the pigs flying through the beautiful yellow sky.

yashar ya betcha!

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@spencerpratt

Hey Spencer,
I don’t live in LA, but I’ve been following this race because I saw this coming from a mile away. I’m sorry man — this is poop.
I’ve spent a lot of time looking at election data (especially during 2020), and what’s happening here is statistically insane. Andrew Follett has been posting the clearest breakdown of the vote updates by batch, and the numbers don’t add up under any normal circumstances. The swing is way too big and way too targeted once that much data was already counted.
The problem is, a lot of regular people don’t understand how statistics work, so they just hear “late mail ballots” and tune out. You need the data explained in a way that normal people can actually understand — and it would carry a lot more weight if you had some real statisticians backing it up.
There are a couple of very respected guys in the field (Andrew Gelman and David Spiegelhalter) who would be perfect for this. If you reached out to them and got them to look at Follett’s data, it would give this whole thing some serious teeth. Right now it just looks like another “conspiracy” to a lot of people, but the numbers are actually screaming WE ARE CHEATING.
You’re fighting a machine that’s very good at controlling the narrative. Using hard data + credible experts is one of the few ways to push back effectively.
Appreciate you running. A lot of people are seeing what’s happening. God Bless you.
Here’s the main post with the data if you haven’t seen it yet:
https://t.co/ANTnkunJvH

[Andrew Follett @AndrewCFollett]

This is a fair assessment.

Bass' growth fell and Raman's is exploding suddenly....the INSTANT the later had the opportunity to lock out a Republican.

This directly lagged suspicious Kalshi trading activity btw.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@StatModeling

Dr. Gelman,
I’ve followed your work and respect how seriously you take statistical analysis in elections.
There’s a significant anomaly in the LA Mayor primary vote updates that’s hard to explain through normal processes. Early returns (including pre-Election Day mail ballots) showed Spencer Pratt with a clear lead over Nithya Raman. Then in later batches, Raman received a very large, disproportionate surge while Pratt’s gains were almost completely cut off. The final margin is now only ~3,100 votes.
Here’s the clearest data I’ve seen on the batch-by-batch updates:
https://t.co/ANTnkunJvH
Would you be willing to take a quick look? Your analysis would carry real weight. Thank you.

[Andrew Follett @AndrewCFollett]

This is a fair assessment.

Bass' growth fell and Raman's is exploding suddenly....the INSTANT the later had the opportunity to lock out a Republican.

This directly lagged suspicious Kalshi trading activity btw.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@AndrewCFollett Hey man, first off — thank you for putting together the clear data and graphs on the LA Mayor vote updates. It’s been the most useful thing I’ve seen on this so far.
I wanted to let you know that I tagged @StatModeling (Andrew Gelman) and @d_spiegel (David Spiegelhalter) on this post. These two are among the most respected statisticians in the field. I figured that having real PhD-level credibility and a strong reputation for rigorous analysis behind this would make it a lot harder for people to just dismiss it.
No disrespect at all to the work you’re already doing — your data is solid. I just know from experience that having recognized experts weigh in gives these arguments real teeth. If you’re comfortable with it, it might be worth you also reaching out to them directly.
Appreciate the work you’ve put in on this.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@StatModeling @AndrewCFollett Hey Dr. Gelman,
I’ve followed your work for a while and respect how seriously you approach statistical analysis, especially when it comes to elections and data integrity.
I wanted to bring something to your attention regarding the LA Mayor primary. There’s a statistical pattern in the vote updates that’s difficult to explain through normal processes. Early returns (including pre-Election Day mail ballots) showed Spencer Pratt with a clear and consistent lead over Nithya Raman. Raman was polling poorly and even conceded on election night. Then in specific later vote updates, Raman received a very large, disproportionate surge while Pratt’s gains were almost completely cut off. The final margin between them ended up being only about 3,100 votes.
The size of the swing from the early baseline appears extreme once that much data was already counted. Andrew Follett has been posting the clearest breakdown of the vote updates by batch and date here:
https://t.co/ANTnkunJvH
I’ve spent a lot of time looking at election data myself (I went pretty deep during the 2020 election and saw how hard it is for regular people to be taken seriously without formal expertise). That’s why I’m reaching out. Voices like yours carry real weight, and I think a clear statistical analysis from someone with your background would help a lot of people understand what’s actually happening in the data.
Would you be willing to take a quick look? Thank you for your time.

[Andrew Follett @AndrewCFollett]

This is a fair assessment.

Bass' growth fell and Raman's is exploding suddenly....the INSTANT the later had the opportunity to lock out a Republican.

This directly lagged suspicious Kalshi trading activity btw.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@Arden_2210 .001 i meant, the answer is in the….answer

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@Arden_2210 001 = succeed
Puzzle solved. You’re welcome.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@Arden_2210 42, 6+6=12 12+8=20 20+10=30 30+12=42

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden if I'm being honest…this list if fucking stupid. You got four of the greatest presence of all time on there and Barack Obama is just as bad if not worse for the country then Joe Biden but at least he could fucking put sentences together and articulate his corruptness. Obviously this bullshit list is meant to trigger TDS and divide. You're stupid.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@TroliusMaximus @nypost Ummm because she could have been arrested for not “bringing them there” you dumb fuck. Have you ever lived on planet earth. Ever known anybody at all in general? Has kids, gets divorced and the state gets involved??! You should be arrested for being a fucktard.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@littlesnoop99z @nypost Not even close! There’s a big difference between being accused of murdering the mother of the children and simply not having a residence wouldn’t you think???

Derrrrr.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

Because they were found with their arms tied behind their backs and bags over the head you idiot! And they were in his custody. Do you think they did this to themselves after murdering their father and hiding his body.

Are people seriously this fucking stupid. I’m having a hard time with these posts obviously. Are you a retard???

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@Dennisc80704394 @nypost Fake?! I am so sick of people like you. Fake!!!! What is wrong with you. You’re fake. Who the fuck would fake this you retard!!! Shame on you.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

Don’t have children then because in just one post I can tell that anybody who has the privilege of creating a family with an ignorant moron such as yourself would be that race of men. Fortunately, in your case they would most likely just end up killing themselves after about a week with a dumbfuck like you. Go away moron.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@ScorcherJ17356 @nypost I’d rather have a country filled with homeless people than one of you. You moron. Ignorant tool. You think being homeless caused this man to do this??? You’re dumber than a box of rocks. Eat shit.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

You are retarded and shouldn’t be allowed to be on the internet. How old are you? Clearly you have no friends or a social
Life. Most people understand that when people have children together and divorce or separate that part of that process is creating a legally binding parenting plan. It’s mandated. You have to follow it, or they step in and enforce it against your will you fucking idiot.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

@mymomcare @nypost Didn’t have a choice you fucking moron moron! Another dumb fuck post from a dumb fucking person. Do you have a soul?

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

You are sick…white male privilege? How the hell do people like you exist. I would ring your neck if I could. Three beautiful girls were horribly murdered and you would post this garbage. Shame on you. The father was homeless and clearly not in his right mind. Where the fuck do you get off thinking it’s okay to post this shit you worthless garbage human being. White male privilege? You fucking moron!! I hate worthless trolls like you. Leave earth please.

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

Do you even know what hyperbole means? An energetic cow maybe.

I’m 90% positive that 110% of you is 200% retarded. You probably bought a Tesla just to blow it up, and then threw a fit when you’re fat angry wife forgot to purchase the TDS insurance and you weren’t covered for “being alive and a democrat at the same time”

[Gordon Shumway @orphanedalien]

Well shit, she is still telling us that Trump is F’ing amazing. Joe Biden couldn’t walk and lick ice cream at the same time. Trump apparently can be telling us about Greenland and abducting Americans at the same time!!! That’s amazing. And personally I would be honored to be snatched up in the middle of the night by the greatest president of all time. I’d sign up for that shit, maybe even pay to have Trump come and snatch me up. I’d be so excited I wouldn’t be able to fake sleeping when he creeps in my door to snatch me though. It wouldn’t be an authentic surprise, like “oh no look it’s Donald trump, he is snatching me up in the middle of the night, please help me”…”hey can we get a selfy of this please”