Investing in broad-market ETFs, silver & gold. Deleted LinkedIn. Self-employed in a service biz with a flex work lifestyle. 30 yo, prev. @UBC & @Shopify 🚀🇨🇦
My theory is that the dot-com crash around 2000 was prolonged because investors left the stock market and ran towards real estate, which was a highly popular investment in the early 2000s until it popped around 2008.
Today, real estate remains unpopular and there are no other comparable alternative investment to the stock market (except maybe commodities for now).
This situation is forcing everyday investors to remain confident in the stock market no matter what.
As a result, it becomes difficult for the market to stay down for long, because every dip gets bought by everyday investors who feel like they have to buy and stay invested.
The alternative is bleak and people can’t have that, especially when cost of living is inflating.
Until there is a viable alternative asset that rivals the stock market, maybe the stock market will remain a self-perpetuating confidence machine that investors just won’t let go.
Ever heard of “The Lost Decade”? 📉
Between 2000 and 2010, the S&P 500 basically went nowhere overall.
Dot-com crash.
Financial crisis.
Years of volatility.
Imagine investing consistently for 10 YEARS and barely seeing progress in your portfolio.
It’s easy to say “I’m a long-term investor” when markets are flying.
But if something similar happened again, do you genuinely think you could stay invested and keep buying for a decade with little or no gains? 🤔
My theory is that the dot-com crash around 2000 was prolonged because investors left the stock market and ran towards real estate, which was a highly popular investment in the early 2000s until it popped around 2008.
Today, real estate remains unpopular and there are no other comparable alternative investment to the stock market (except maybe commodities for now).
This situation is forcing everyday investors to remain confident in the stock market no matter what.
As a result, it becomes difficult for the market to stay down for long, because every dip gets bought by everyday investors who feel like they have to buy and stay invested.
The alternative is bleak and people can’t have that, especially when cost of living is inflating.
Until there is a viable alternative asset that rivals the stock market, maybe the stock market will remain a self-perpetuating confidence machine that investors just won’t let go.
@rohitdotmittal I feel like Siri hasn’t improved much compared to when iPhone 4S was launched. I remember seeing an ad for it and I was amazed back then. But now, relative to other AI tools we have…
@unusual_whales In some cases, getting one actually becomes a detriment to getting a job, especially with minimal work experience.
Why would employers hire a Master’s Degree candidate for entry-level jobs over someone who doesn’t have one?
@GenXmillionaire I’ve been DCAing. I keep thinking if I should just lump-sum my spare cash but I’ve been resisting. Then the next ATHs keep rolling in one after another 😅
Reasons why I think the stock market will go up:
1. Fourth of July (America250)
2. We just had a mini-crash in March
3. Upcoming US midterm elections
4. No comparable assets for investors to move their $ to (e.g. real estate in the early 2000s)
5. Upcoming IPOs
Reasons why I think the stock market will go down:
6. Too many speculators
7. Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position
8. The stock market is at its most expensive valuation
9. The S&P 500 Shiller PE (CAPE) ratio is at its second highest level on record
10. Upcoming IPOs
@FirstSquawk In some cases, getting one actually becomes a detriment to getting a job, especially with minimal work experience.
Why would employers hire a Master’s Degree candidate for entry-level jobs over someone who doesn’t have one?
@BoomerDivvies We just had a mini-crash in March. Seems unlikely we’re getting another one soon.
At the same time, I wouldn’t dare to lump-sum my spare cash into the market right now…
@theswansjr Hmm I don’t know. But to root for Bitcoin is to root for the decline of the dollar and fiat.
How likely is it that govs around the world would surrender control over their own currencies and switch into something they can’t control like Bitcoin?