WARSH OPEN TO SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE
FT reports Fed Governor Kevin Warsh would be prepared to raise rates in September if upcoming inflation data comes in hot and markets increase expectations for higher borrowing costs, according to people familiar with his thinking.
Bessent actually doing the responsible thing to keep everything afloat for now. The whole management price is really important to Japan right now. They cannot have the oil price rise or the Yen will weaken further. At what point does the US need to save itself first as an exporter of oil.
But now the Fed will step in, print money effectively with FIMA to prop up Japan effectively. That money will find its way around and inflation will get to it.
🚨 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Just WARNED The Fed: Expand the FIMA facility NOW or watch the yen collapse and drag U.S. Treasuries down with it.
Japan is bleeding. The U.S. already intervened once… and it failed. Bessent is telling the Fed: “Help prop up the yen with dollar loans or Japan starts dumping American debt.”
Now Bessent is publicly pushing the Fed to expand its FIMA repo facility so Japan can borrow massive dollars against its Treasuries, instead of selling them.
This isn’t cooperation. This is desperation.
What’s really going on:
Japan holds over a trillion in U.S. debt. Selling even part of it would spike yields and crush markets. So Bessent wants Fed liquidity to paper over the problem.
Extremely risky long-term, terrifying consequences:
• Erases Fed independence as the Treasury publicly pressures it to expand facilities for a foreign crisis.
• Signals the world’s second-biggest U.S. debt holder is in deep trouble. Markets will test how far this goes.
• Turns a temporary tool into a permanent backdoor bailout. The market will force ever-larger interventions.
• Risks accelerating a loss of confidence in both the yen and the dollar.
BoJ Banker Yuto had earlier warned about forced U.S. interventions and it did indeed happen.
He also warned that BoJ has discussed the worst case scenario that considers collapse of creditors trust on U.S. dollars but Washington will never let that happen.
The famous City of London banker @LordBelgrave had dropped this exact playbook at the start of the year, suggesting this crisis could very well be planned. He had also revealed that most of the financial crisis are engineered by central banks and IMF.
These backstops rarely stop the crisis, they just make the eventual reckoning far bigger.
@BankerWeimar algorithms that use rising yields as a premise to short gold are gonna feel significant pain. These algorithms obviously existed before the but the war has probably reinforced them.
Based on my fun little chart I used to model gold prices we should be at $5,600 right now. Whatever handshake deal trump made with Xi to suppress gold and oil is now expired. Blue line won't stay far from the black line for long, and the black line isn't going anywhere.
The confirmed volume of oil flowing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has fallen by ~40% since the Houthis announced their naval blockade of Saudi shipping
Russian flows holding pretty firm, while Saudi flows are functionally back to prewar (pre-East-West pipeline reroute) levels