Osamah Al-Momen

Interested in energy policies and economics

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr The irony is not lost here

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

⭕️SPR withdrawals so far: ~108 mb

⭕️Remaining under the 172 mb plan: 64 mb

⭕️Current SPR inventory: 307.7 mb

⭕️If the full plan is completed, the government would drop roughly 8 mb below the legal minimum set by Congress.

👉The problem isn’t the SPR withdrawals themselves.
It’s the method being used: loans.
Companies are making hundreds of millions in profit from this approach — at the expense of taxpayers.
👇👇👇👇

[Don Johnson @DonMiami3]

80% see no rate change tomorrow

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr #proud

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr Hi Amena
How do product flows compare before and after?
Thanks

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@LarryVasqu99365 @Amena__Bakr Also, it’s not just SPR that needs to be refilled. Commercials inventories are also very low, at the operational floor.

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@LarryVasqu99365 @Amena__Bakr Larry, Iran oil is already in the market. Lifting sanctions only means a higher price. UAE capacity has never been tested and is questioned by many. Still, even if true, they were the only other spare capacity in OPEC. This leaves balancing the market to Saudi, which is bullish

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@LarryVasqu99365 @Amena__Bakr I don’t think Iran was constrained pre-war. They have increased their production over the years and China was buying it all. As for UAE, they have been over producing for a while. I doubt they have the capacity they claim to have. Their additions to the market would be small IMO

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr - countries that were producing below quota pre-conflict would compensate, effectively reducing available spare capacity.

The question is when would the market catch up?

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr 3 things I see pushing prices up moving forward
- Lifting of sanction on Iranian oil means that Iran doesn’t need sell at a discount. I think said discount from Russia and Iran was pulling prices down.
- War inventory draws will likely increase demand to replenish inventory.

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@staunovo The 2026 numbers don’t make sense. Rationing shouldn’t be a function of demand

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@ElianWorldView @Amena__Bakr Not sure what you are talking about here. Also, Maersk doesn’t move oil.
You seem to insinuate there is a workaround that’s in action. However, Iraq and Kuwait bbl are still shut in. Saudi and UAE exports are below average. Diesel and jet fuel market is still tight. We need SoH.

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr I check FT X page and the website and didn’t see anything on EW pipeline attack. Hopefully not true

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr Which group?

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr 🤣 gold!

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr @TankerTrackers If they aim to bring down oil prices, then taking out Iranian exports would only make the situation worse by the market even tighter. It makes sense that they would spare damaging oil and oil export infrastructure.

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@Amena__Bakr He will take credit for the 30 dollars drop today 😄

[Peter Lukacs Research @Peter_Lukacs_R]

If the thesis is 2027-8-9 non opec growth turns negative and lack of sustain capex starts to hurt supply, then whatever happens short term doesn’t matter much (other than dip opportunities), that said oil relative up vs “glut” so pullbacks can happen

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@MarioNawfal Reserves don’t equal production (+ not all oil is equal but thats a story for another day). Iran produces ~ 3.2 mmbpd and Venezuela at best can only add 400 kbpd by year end. Each 100 kbpd lost easily translates to 50 cent increase in oil price, not factoring uncertainty premium.

[Osamah Al-Momen @osama_momen]

@jackprandelli This data is not accurate. As of 2024 Saudi Arabia’s capacity was ~ 92.5 GW. This is electricity connected to the grid.