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The Black Bull.... Fighter
Ever since the $Ansem launch, I keep hearing the same thesis from every character of the bell curve:
Ansem will not let this die.
Ansem will not let it top at X.
Ansem will not ruin his reputation over this.
All incredibly stupid theses, because a thesis is only as good as the antithesis it can survive:
What does Ansem lose if the token fails?
Absolutely nothing.
He already won:
Money, through what I believe were his “airdropped” wallets, fees, perps, and a broader protocol fee-share deal with pumpdotfun.
Attention, for himself, Market Bubble, and any brand he decides to support next.
He is done.
The market is still pricing his incentives as if his trade is unfinished.....His trade ended the moment he captured the money and attention.
Don't be a moron, don't confuse association with liability.
Ansem is obviously associated with the token. His name is on it, his audience bought it, and its performance reflects on him. But association only becomes liability when failure forces him to give something back, lose something he has already captured, or accept responsibility he cannot explain away.
I do not think any of those conditions exist here.
This Vitalik's 2016 Reddit post gave core idea for Uniswap:
'Let's run on-chain decentralized exchanges the way we run prediction markets'.
Hayden then built it and DEXs became core infra of DeFi where price discovery happens, LPs farm, and ppl can trade without KYC.
What if the new idea by Vitalik becomes a new Uniswap? Or in this case Aave?
He proposes DeFi without liquidations, built on options instead of debt.
How it works in practice:
Today on Aave you deposit 1 ETH at $1.5k and borrow $1k USDC.
If ETH dumps too much (likely lol), a bot sells your ETH with a penalty.
The whole system depends on real-time oracles being correct every second. Late liquidations incur bad debt.
In Vitalik's design your 1 ETH splits into two tokens: a 'stable dollars' token and an 'ETH upside' token.
- Borrowing: sell the stable token for cash, keep the upside token.
If ETH dumps you just lose the upside. No liquidation bot and no penalty
- Stablecoin: hold the stable token.
Worst case it slowly turns back into ETH rather than depegging overnight
- Leverage: buy the upside token. Max loss is what you paid and you can't get liquidated
It works like buying a call option: you pay once upfront, that payment is the most you can ever lose, and a temporary price wick can't liquidate you since only the price at expiry counts.
The two tokens always add up to 1 ETH, so the protocol can't end up with bad debt.
And the price oracle is only checked once at expiry so slow prediction-market style oracles are enough, no real time price feeds.
Since positions expire you have to roll them. But this creates new DeFi products like Pendle-ish vaults that automate the rolling for a fee.
This design removes cascading liquidations from DeFi lending.
Gotta keep an eye on it.
According @predictdotfun team, only 5 people care about this.
Meanwhile on @ethos_network they got slashed with an overwhelming 93.4% with nearly 200 slashers.
Shows how disconnected this team is.
🧵The @predictdotfun Scandal and why Binance prediction markets are off to a terrible start!
1. This is the biggest scandal ive personally experienced in prediction markets and its happening right now on @predictdotfun
I was genuinely excited to see Predict revived from the Blast days and relaunched on BSC with backing from @yzilabs
This excitement is gone. 👇
Today marks the worst possible start to 2026
I rarely get scammed after years in this space but @predictdotfun team with @dingalingts front and center managed to pull a fast one on me.
Predict has now officially classified the Lighter ($LIT) token as a "Governance token"
This goes against all public evidence including @Lighter_xyz founder himself saying a governance token would make no sense right now.
When challenged Predict claims they have "insider confirmation" details they cannot disclose and that public factors are therefor irrelevant. I wonder if the @SECGov is aware of this 👀
@yzilabs I assumed strong vetting standards were in place for teams operation under your umbrella. Situations like this expose users to unnecessary risk and deserve a closer look.
As of now I would urge everyone to stay away from BNB prediction markets and go use @Polymarket instead the BNB markets are resolved based on them anyway.
@predictdotfun Your docs says resolution = Team/AI decision. It says nothing about external markets (Such as relying on Polymarket's resolution). Changing the criteria for the $LIT airdrop after the date is reached isn't decentralization, it's fraud
@opinionlabsxyz
Guys, did you see what predict dot fun did? They actually shifted the responsibility for accepting the controversial situation to Polymarket. And Polymarket does not consider this a controversial situation.