Otto Kässi

Lover. Also an economist. @EtlaNews.

[Tero Moilanen @TeroMphotos]

Mietin pitkään kirjoitanko tänne mitään tapahtuneesta mutta ehkä tämä pitää kertoa, varoittavana esimerkkinä. Seuraa ketju vakavasta asiasta.
Kuvan reitti on viimeisin pyöräilemäni matka, reilu viikko sitten sunnuntaina.

[Peter John Lambert @pj_lambert]

Is GenAI causing the relative decline in early-career hiring? Our latest research finds that these effects may be conflated with another important driver: the rise of WFH arrangements (1/N)

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

NEW: Claude-powered coding agent reportedly deleted a company’s production database, and backups, in 9 seconds.

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

@VilleKaitila - erityinen luontosuhde

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

Snow's gone, but the scooter is still in the same place @BirdRide.

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

Hey @BirdRide there are at least a dozen of your scooters abandoned around Helsinki. Despite reports, you have not collected them. The scooter in the photo was reported to you 1 month ago via your website, and today it is in the same place. Please clean up after yourself thnx!

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

Hey @BirdRide there are at least a dozen of your scooters abandoned around Helsinki. Despite reports, you have not collected them. The scooter in the photo was reported to you 1 month ago via your website, and today it is in the same place. Please clean up after yourself thnx!

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

@heimbergecon Finland has a very broad conscription-based army. If you included the opportunity cost of conscripts' time spent in the army, you could add an additional 0.4-0.5pp. of GDP to the Finnish number even under very conservative assumptions. Even that would not quite make us Poland.

[Oxford Internet Institute @oiioxford]

NEW: A new study led by researchers including Dr Fabian Braesemann shows how #GenerativeAI tools like #ChatGPT are reshaping the workforce.

Read more: https://t.co/AiE6CL886P

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

It was an immense pleasure to work on this with with @ole_teutloff @RMaria_drc @__jae_1 @manlikemishap and Fabian Braesemann

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

There's lots more stuff in the paper, incl. details on how we can be sure that this really is a demand shock due to ChatGPT launch. The paper is open access, and available here: https://t.co/6aKB1gviTr. I also blogged about this (in Finnish):https://t.co/fUeLQZ32Lp

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

@CallMarcus Yeah, I think this is accurate. You would not want to let the (even the current reasoning) llms loose on anything that with non-trivial stakes. Ofc, our evidence is based on ChatGPT launch, and the models have advanced in strides since then.

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

@m_silliman My condolences, but what a fascinating life story!

[Otto Kässi @ottokassi]

@OsmoSoininvaara Spekulointia: https://t.co/ql9cdaA56E

[Domer❤️‍🔥 @Domahhhh]

Biggest current user on Polymarket is "Fredi9999" -- who is himself a curiosity.

He is by far the largest holder of Trump shares, checking in at 7.2 million shares and counting.

The user has a total of $6.4 million in positions, all of them on Trump. He also has a lot of cash ready to deploy, and brings in new cash on a regular basis.

Couple of curiosities here. One is that this username doesn't exist on the internet. Seems designed to give the impression its some rando whale flinging cash around. Many such cases. But a lot of whales just make huge bets and move on. This person moves the price slightly and then uses limit orders to try to get as many shares as possible.

Second is an outsized interest in betting on Pennsylvania, where he owns 2.3 million shares of Trump.

Couple of possibilities here with this user: (1) it's a consortium of folks or (2) it's someone who is likely worth in excess of $100m given the cavalier bet sizing and endless bankroll.

The current speculation among users is that the account may be affiliated with @elonmusk, and while I am not sure how seriously to take that idea -- it definitely seems stupid at first -- there's a couple more curiosities. The recent tweets around Trump and Pennsylvania about Polymarket (from his personal stenographer "Doge Designer") seem to be timed with large purchases by Fredi. Musk rallied with Trump in Pennsylvania, and has connections to Pennsylvania from his college days.

The join date of the account was June 22nd, a few weeks before Elon officially endorsed Trump. BUT June 22nd roughly lines up to when I was told privately by someone in Republican circles that Elon was getting ready to endorse and donate a ton of money to get Trump elected.

Two more things to mention:
-I don't think this person(s) is trying to manipulate anything. The account seems designed to acquire a very large number of shares. It's a true believer. As a result of trying to buy that much, the user is going to end up moving the price. But i am not sure moving the price is the point. (I also don't think the price will have a single impact on the election)
-If it's not Musk, it is definitely someone very similar to Musk. And someone very similar to Musk is probably a fan of Musk (so could explain the aforementioned bet timings). The user is a fervent and wealthy supporter, crypto & tech savvy, who wants to back up his belief that Trump will win with a lot of money.

[Antti Ripatti @anttiripatti]

@AJTanskanen Tein tuottolaskelman Klubiaskin kanteen. Harvalla interviolla on näin huikea tuotto.

[EtlaNews @EtlaNews]

Etla hakee tutkijaa/senioritutkijaa, hakuaikaa jäljellä vielä kuun loppuun👍 Lue lisää: https://t.co/BNf1DkWCVa

[CLS @ChengleiSi]

Automating AI research is exciting! But can LLMs actually produce novel, expert-level research ideas?

After a year-long study, we obtained the first statistically significant conclusion: LLM-generated ideas are more novel than ideas written by expert human researchers.