@EasyDoesIt1989 That's the big question. How much of the initial love for the film is represented in the academy? Hard to say for sure. The techs, adapted screenplay, and Gosling on the bubble for Lead Actor should keep in close contention.
@EasyDoesIt1989 It's possible, though there does seem to be large passion gap that favors PHM over Fjord. It Was Just an Accident won the Palme last year but then quietly faded out.
1/ Are people still confident in Samantha Morton getting nominated for Supporting Actress? Early on, the consensus seemed to be that she would be championed by the regional critics. With the rise of You Can See Everything, [Redacted] seems a much likelier passion pick for them.
3/ I haven’t seen LBN, WH9, Tender Loving Care, or All of a Sudden yet, so it’s hard to compare strength of competition. Is Morton a safe nomination, or have people not yet recalibrated to the possibility that [Redacted] becomes the shiny new thing for regional critics to push?
@EasyDoesIt1989 5/ The doc branch is notoriously unpredictable with their nominations. Enough of their voters may love YSCE and it gets in due to its meteoric critical acclaim and box-office success. But there are enough concerns and uncertainty for me to take NO on this one at that price.