Steven Holland

I make movies, gamble on entertainment award shows, and analyze blood.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@LCWTAction @EasyDoesIt1989 @nandodifino @expert_oscar_2 @Domahhhh @withbrotherbro @1DavidLong @kylebuchanan @AwardsWatchErik Agreed. It has a huge range of possible outcomes in terms of awards. The doc branch seems likely to be the most sensitive to the ethical/moral aspect.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@LCWTAction @EasyDoesIt1989 @nandodifino @expert_oscar_2 @Domahhhh @withbrotherbro @1DavidLong @kylebuchanan @AwardsWatchErik I won’t criticize it for not being a different film. They took the approach they did and it was fascinating to watch. Sitting with the ethical uneasiness actually increased my appreciation of it as a piece of art, but would give me qualms if I were an awards voter.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@LCWTAction @EasyDoesIt1989 @nandodifino @expert_oscar_2 @Domahhhh @withbrotherbro @1DavidLong @kylebuchanan @AwardsWatchErik To the film’s credit, it’s neither a free pass to Holmes or nor mere voyeuristic gawking. That said, it feels like an uncomfortable first step towards the rehabilitation of Holmes’ reputation: the boyfriend plays the Heel, she gets closer to becoming a sympathetic Face.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@LCWTAction @EasyDoesIt1989 @nandodifino @expert_oscar_2 @Domahhhh @withbrotherbro @1DavidLong @kylebuchanan @AwardsWatchErik Elizabeth Holmes harmed people in the past.

Millions of people will watch this film.

Some will leave with a more sympathetic view of her than before.

As a result, Holmes has a greater ability to harm people in the future.

Is it morally responsible for us to support this?

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@LCWTAction @EasyDoesIt1989 @nandodifino @expert_oscar_2 @Domahhhh @withbrotherbro @1DavidLong @kylebuchanan @AwardsWatchErik Yes, it's definitely far above typical celebrity docs. It’s a great piece of entertainment and thought-provoking art. My main hesitation is that many doc branch members likely view documentaries as a tool to produce positive social change. Their hang-up might be:

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@EasyDoesIt1989 6/ I do worry that the “YSCE get nominated for Picture, but missed Documentary” prediction feels just a bit too clever to be true. Any thoughts?

@EasyDoesIt1989 @LCWTAction @nandodifino @expert_oscar_2 @Domahhhh @withbrotherbro @1DavidLong @kylebuchanan @AwardsWatchErik

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@EasyDoesIt1989 5/ The doc branch is notoriously unpredictable with their nominations. Enough of their voters may love YSCE and it gets in due to its meteoric critical acclaim and box-office success. But there are enough concerns and uncertainty for me to take NO on this one at that price.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@electionsjoe The effectiveness of right-wing culture war is inversely proportional to the price of gas.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@bduffez @LudwigNverMises For sure.

When Harris was behind Trump in the betting markets in 2024, I saw a lot of left wingers give bad explanations and poor arguments for why.

And now I'm seeing a lot of the same arguments from right wingers in 2026 to explain away Talarico's lead.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@bduffez @LudwigNverMises There are likely arbitrage bots running on both Kalshi and Polymarket, so it would probably take bets on both sites to move the price for more than a few seconds.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@Txnbybirth @AvocadoPablo_ @LudwigNverMises @Txnbybirth stupid counterparties = profit opportunity

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@bduffez @LudwigNverMises https://t.co/5XBi8ZOjNA

I'm guessing he's referring to Talarico's orderbook liquidity. If someone bought up all the shares in one click, it would move the price significantly; however, another trader would likely see it as mispriced and quickly bet it back the other way.

[Steven Holland @OurMetalFriend]

@showbiz411 @showbiz411 Do you think the doc branch will shortlist / nominate it for Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars?