Outputlayer

Turning onchain data into growth insights | Pet projects: outputlayer/rwa_cli and @PredGraph | DMs open

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

Wasn't active the last few days, still working on the cli for rwa trading/portfolio management.

Added a few cool commands:

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

hook - https://t.co/GKUyucmwsJ
router - https://t.co/mppSqe6g0Q

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

You can contribute rather than extract from this space, it's definitely +ev long term:

last 10 days since i found @Trueo_ from the @DefiLlama announcement:

- created a uni v4 hook that removes arbitrage (ty to @sterlingcrispin for showing me that)
- created a router contract for better execution price
- created a better ui (for personal use only so far, but shared screenshots of the improvements)

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

I think we're moving from UI and simple web3 scripts to our own contracts and some onchain experiments. I see more and more such cases

soon everyone will have custom contracts just like scripts and bots now

- onchain research
- spec and plan
- contract and bot code
- blind and fork tests
- security audit and code review
- deploys with rollback
- monitoring, alerts, daily reports

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

Not an obvious fact about @xStocksFi on Solana.

In late Sep-mid Oct, 40-80% of daily xStock DEX volume was memecoin transit.

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@donaldjewkes @ByrneHobart Thanks, was just looking to read something new this week

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@felix_dolderer @justmazer haha yep

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@PaikCapital @fomo @tryfomo congrats gg!

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@DefiLlama @0xngmi @patfscott, pls need you to check this

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

thought i found a niche prediction market with an inefficiency but turns out they added this recently and just didnt announce it aaaaaaaa

@DefiLlama on cc revenue kept/vaulted pulls count the full pack price as revenue and sell backs subtract it later so daily revenue is basically when whales decide to sell back not margin. today went 1.46m -> 0.69m intraday, for a market on october revenue thats kinda a big deal, worth a note in the methodology

[DefiLlama.com @DefiLlama]

You can now trade protocol revenue and exploit odds. We're partnering with Trueo to launch new prediction markets that settle based on DefiLlama data.

Revenue Markets
If you follow the revenue meta, you can now trade that directly on Trueo. We launched markets for Hyperliquid, Pump, Aero, Uniswap, Collector Crypt, and Papertrade revenue.

Exploit Markets
Hedge against exploit risk by trading the odds of total DeFi hacks and exploits of specific protocols. We have markets for whether there will be exploits of Aave and Morpho this month. We also have weekly and monthly markets for the size of the largest hack.

Other Onchain Metrics
Robinhood Chain RWA mcap, Robinhood Chain DEX volume, and whether Solana or Base ends the week with higher TVL.
https://t.co/To5jNeNDDj

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

сс https://t.co/hNhPstcE6l

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@noveleader lol risk free

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@0xDeployer haha, I was recently working on a similar idea, but a bit more complicated. The idea was to maintain the actual index weights: new buys go into assets that have dropped below their target %, while sells come from assets that have grown above their target weight.

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

finally played with uniswap v4 hooks

as i see it, it only works if your pool actually gets order flow, so you need:
- something unique (a pair)
- target pools to trade against

right?

but it also needs real demand

e.g. a meme/usdc pool rebalanced against meme/stock + stock/usdc:
- arb is expensive: launchpad hook 1-3% + v3 0.3-1%, so the pool drifts 1.3-4% before rebalancing pays and lps eat it
- you're stuck holding a meme that usually dies in days
- 3-4 swaps of gas per buy, so routers prefer the bots' direct path

couple questions:
- how do you handle hedging in your setup?
- how do you get flow into your pool, uniswap allowlist or your own frontend/bots?
- who pays the arb gas in your hook, the swapper? doesn't that make routers skip your pool?

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

Looks like someone is already running this at scale:

0x53a42d2d0fdd60bf8f833fb94841349095a74024

Results (by closing balance):
53 real episodes, 45 green
Bought $63.3k, realized +$21.3k
Median +$154 (+15%), mean +$402 (+25%)
p10 −$30, p90 +$889
Worst −$336, best +$3,208
Top 10 episodes = 73% of profit
Max drawdown $336, 4–6 open positions ($4–8k at risk)
Net $19k, $6k/day

Targets: 33 FOMO whale wallets, a fixed ticket per wallet.

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

I spent the weekend trying to land in the same block
as someone else's buy. Not the next block, the same one. https://t.co/cNWkUpgyMM

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@Senti__23 gg

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

I spent the weekend trying to land in the same block
as someone else's buy. Not the next block, the same one. https://t.co/cNWkUpgyMM

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@sssionggg If there wasn’t a signing thing, even auto-signing feels slow. It would be much cooler to just deposit into a balance and then trade like papertrade did

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@Claysaico ik, i meant actual numbers. 99% per contract but realized ~90%, part goes to refilling lp after trader wins. imo 5m cap makes the house super efficient but fragile, no buffer so any trader win pauses payouts

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

I think it only makes sense if you expect:

a) PAPER to become tradable on DEXes
b) volume to stay where it is now or keep growing

LP vs the $5M cap:
- above $5M only ~8–11% of the time
- staked supply is growing ~8%/day

Weekly model (staker payouts stay at today's level)
Oct 15 -> Oct 21:
- Staked: 7.9B -> 11.2B PAPER
- Stake growth: +7.5% -> +5.1% per day
- Paid to all stakers: ~$5.3M per day, flat
- Per 1M PAPER: ~$690 -> ~$485 per day (-30%)

[deployer @0xDeployer]

my bankr farm routine bought 1.17M $PAPER since midnight

> hedged btc 100x, $25k a leg
> it only opens a pair when the pool is at its cap and the estimated payback is under 20 days
> bankr's take-profit + stop-loss close the pair
> every PAPER auto-staked, usdc claims land on their own

all from one prompt. reinstall the papertrade skill to set yours up

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

@wontonsoupHL excess over 5m gets swept right away, so lp has no buffer. any move where traders net win pulls it below the cap, and stakers go from ~99% to 1% until losses refill it. so time at the cap showed how often trader pnl swings against the house, i.e. how stable staker income is

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

1. yeah fair, time above 5m doesnt matter. at the cap ~90% of trader losses go to stakers (oct 14: 5.43m of 5.93m), below cap less (oct 11: 59%)

2. agree, i kept mint flat. with decay 11.2b is around nov 5-28 depending on H (35-17m/day), supply caps ~12.6b. per 1m paper ~695 -> ~565 by oct 21, ~470 mid nov

[Outputlayer @outputlayer]

Would be cool to have stocks/RWAs or other efficient crypto markets where you need to burn or get paper to launch

Not sure about lowcap/midcap tokens or memes, though. Since there’s no order book and the price comes from an oracle, it could be relatively easy to manipulate the price and drain the LP, like what happened on launch day