Outright Alpha

30 years in outright markets | Knowledge-led strategy | Staking & active hedging | Long-term approach

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

Most people approach outright markets by trying to predict winners.

That’s not what I do.

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I identify hedging opportunities early and model how prices are likely to move under different scenarios.

Different results create different market reactions.

Understanding those price paths is where the opportunity lies.

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30 years specialist knowledge on a small number of markets, mainly European football and Tennis.

12% ROI proven by available results over last 7 years, 18% in 2026.

DM to learn more.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@markgoldbridge I’m not saying he’s good, but one reason is…..he’s not interested.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@SamLee “Until we have a ruling”?. The hearing finished in December 2024. Nothing short of a disgrace.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@henrywinter When you thought no one could be worse than Blatter, along comes Infantino. A truly odious man.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@maddycted @mason8815 @henrywinter Agreed. Arsenal played great football second half of that season and wouldn’t have got anywhere near the “hate” they did this one had they won it.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@premleaguechat @henrywinter Risk averse and lacking urgency. Too many games to mention.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@Melavin @charles_watts Some people will say that but, for me, it’s irrelevant. It’s not a team award but an individual one.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@TheTennisLetter It's consistent with what has been a patchwork of a Slam. Exciting in the first week but revealing a soft underbelly in the tennis ranks. Questioning his tennis career whilst at no. 4 in the world. This from a player losing in the 1st round in 7 of his last 15 slams.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@puresinnema I agree and he'll be a well deserving champion too. With just 3 top 10 seeds in the last 16, I think the soft layer of men's tennis under the Top 4 has been exposed in the second week, after the excitement of the first.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@NYMag Has it though? The first week felt that way but the unpredictability of this week, with only 3 top 10 seeds in the last 16, has, for me, revealed a soft layer under the Top 3.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

There's a 72% probability of the men's winner coming from the bottom of the draw as opposed to 28% for the top.

With many players in unchartered waters, it's difficult to know how each will react to such an opportunity.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@josemorgado There's a 72% probability of the winner coming from the bottom half of the draw and 28% for the top.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@nishikoripicks Tiafoe beat Arnoldi in the 5th set at Wimbledon

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@henrywinter Agree on the Rice for captain call. A natural leader and yet he appears to be behind both Odegaard AND Saka. There’s been talk of Odegaard being sold which would make the transition a lot easier.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@TunedIntoTennis FAA is the highest seed but I think a final will be too big for him. Berrettini has the experience but does he have the fitness? He looks exhausted already. Ruud was the biggest threat and Fonseca has a chance.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@Zwxsh He has played in seven semi finals and three finals against some of the greatest players that ever lived - and fallen only just short. Of those left in the draw only Berrettini has played in a final. This is his edge.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

@markgoldbridge I don’t agree. Any team attacking PSG is leaving themselves open to the devastating counter attacks that saw them beat Inter 5-0 in last years final and win comfortably at Stamford Bridge and Anfield. Arteta’s tactics were sound.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

Arsenal's front 3 pale by comparison with those of PSG, Bayern, Barca, and Real who have true world class forwards. This is where Arsenal need to invest although more creative full-backs would also add to their attacking threat. Hakimi and Mendes at PSG and O'Reilly and Nunes at City are the comparisons there.

[Outright Alpha @OutrightAlpha]

If you compare the Arsenal front 3 with those of PSG, Bayern and Real then yes that is an obvious statement. They also need more offensively minded full-backs though. Timber, Hincapie etc are fine defenders but don’t offer enough of a threat going forward. Again, comparisons with Hakimi and Mendes are not positive.