Today I was at Robinhood’s Q2 earnings call and I got to ask @vladtenev and @ShivVerma what they think about the path to $1 Trillion Market Cap.
Peter Thiel once said in regards to facebook he thought every 10x to $100B was about equal difficulty, but $100B to $1T would be significantly harder. In hindsight, that may have been Facebook’s easiest 10x since it already had scale.
So as $HOOD approaches a $100B market cap: could the next 10x actually be the easiest one? Their answers were the most bullish part of the entire call.
Vlad: “I don’t think a financial company has ever hit a trillion market cap. But I think it can be done… I see multiple axes that the company could 10X, and I think we’re gonna pursue all of them.”
CFO Shiv Verma: “We believe we can 10X the business over the next 10 years.” Nearly $400B in customer assets today vs. competitors at tens of trillions — and unlike most companies, every adjacent market (retirement, banking, crypto, international, B2B) has a larger TAM than the last.
Agentic finance. Robinhood Chain. Ventures Fund 2. The roadmap isn’t 1 year it’s 10.
Full exchange below.👇 Long $HOOD
@RobinhoodApp
Apparently 1 in 4 South Koreans own stocks. Half the KOSPI is just Samsung and SK Hynix. And the ones getting liquidated the hardest are the young people. They couldn’t afford houses so they gambled on the market… now they’re even further behind. Straight up a youth wealth destruction event in the country with the world’s lowest birth rate.
But according to Elon we won’t need money by 2036 or so anyway, so who knows 🤔
🦔It's a bit of a late night post, but I wanted to get this out to explain what's going on in South Korea.
South Korea's stock market triggered another emergency trading halt today, the second day in a row. Yesterday the KOSPI crashed 10.84% and tripped a full circuit breaker. Today it dropped another 8.17% and the exchange froze program trading again. The index is down 41% from its record high in about 28 trading days. SK Hynix fell below its US IPO price 18 days after a $26.5 billion debut. Jensen Huang called it "the golden age for Korea" four days ago.
My Take
SK Hynix reported record revenue and profit today. The stock bounced early and then the broader market sold off anyway. Record numbers and the market still ran for the exits.
Korean retail investors borrowed heavily to ride the AI chip rally, and now brokerages are liquidating their accounts as prices drop, which drives prices lower and triggers more liquidations. Korea has seen 1.2 million margin calls this month with 360,000 accounts wiped out. On top of that, a Chinese memory company called ChangXin raised $8.6 billion in a Shanghai IPO and briefly hit a $443 billion valuation on its first day. If China can produce cheap DRAM at scale, the premium SK Hynix and Samsung charge gets a lot harder to hold.
I've been covering the AI buildout for months now, the debt, the circular deals, the capex nobody can fund from cash. This is what it looks like when the doubt starts to price in...
Hedgie🤗
Bruh what is up with all these perp avenues offering $100k+ rewards just for people to come and trade? What happens after the rewards run out? Users just leave? Others (@OndoPerps@PhoenixTrade@perpltrade) doing the same thing. You can just long on one and short on other btw to stay relatively neutral.
Not a single person has been held accountable for their participation in genocide.
Meanwhile, opponents of genocide are sentenced as terrorists.
What kind of dystopian world are we living in? This absurdity must end. De-proscribe Palestine Action, now.
This is turning into of the worst days for Semis all year.
Market seems to be reacting to a few things:
- A Chinese state-backed company has started mass-producing its own DUV lithography machines. The market is worried that the development could reduce China’s dependence on Western suppliers like ASML and weigh on future equipment demand
- NVDA backstopping OpenAI’s new datacenter buildout with $250B is making the market think that things are getting a bit too circular
- NVDA investing $5B into a new AI startup once again is creating fears of circular financing
- China just had their second largest IPO ever and it was a memory company which is now making the market think that oversupply of memory and a peak in prices is underway
Trump tried to calm down markets by saying that the US and Iran are talking, which got Oil down 7%, but isn’t really helping the chip stocks. Usually, a drop on oil that big would explode high beta names like semis but the market seems to be taking the China buildout threat seriously.
Effectively, the market is saying that China supply coming through means the constraints that create the pricing/earnings power for the semis is diminishing. I’m not sure if this is actually true, especially given how new these reports are, but it goes to show how fragile the entire semi trade is if a headline like this can wipe out $500B+ from the entire sector today.
As always, if semis go down hard, the software names go up which is why software is rallying heavy today.
Are you buying the semi dip or is this a legitimate concern?
$MU $SNDK $INTC $NVDA $AMD
While SPY has been flat this month, the FLP Equity Pool has delivered ~7.8% in passive returns, driven by its structured basket of assets and pool PnL ⚡️
If you’re still not using FLP to diversify your portfolio across multiple assets, then what are you even doing?
nobody gives a fuck about your tech if you don’t tweet about it well
hiding in a cave for weeks to build the thing is negligent. you’re only doing half the job. and it’s the half that makes the money.
NEW: Preconfirmations
See transactions the moment a validator commits to executing them
That's 5-50 milliseconds BEFORE transactions are turned into shreds, and the earliest a tx can be observed on Solana
All delivered via one new WebSocket subscription: preconfSubscribe
Five playbooks to still make money in crypto:
1. Invest in revenue generating tokens
Probably the simplest to execute: just buy tokens where value distribution to token holders (relative to MC) matters most. Some plays: $HYPE, $TRX, $SKY, $JUP.
Simple but not easy as $PUMP despite huge buybacks failed to rally.
2. Narrative trading
In previous cycles yielded great returns as crypto was experimental and traded mostly on hype and story telling
Now, the market demands revenue and clear PMF but opportunities still exist: $ZEC is the biggest win this cycle.
I'd put memecoins in this section too as they trade purely on attention e.g., Robinhood memes
3. Yield Farming
Yields are compressed and risks due to AI hacking have increased.
Still, more sophisticated players can be tradfi returns and emergence of 'vault managers' and Risk Curators make it easy for retail to participate too.
4. Bet on institutional adoption.
I believe it's still a trade that takes time to play out as current upside is absorb by equity holders that retail can't access:
Circle's IPO is a clear example where retail was left behind. Securitized SPAC is another.
Tokens like $STABLE (scam) or Canton's $CC shows appetite for the narrative.
$TEMPO & $ARC TGEs will be the ones to watch.
Also, $FLUID just announced partnership with Kinetic to build a permissioned, KYC'd instance of Fluid for institutions is unique as Kinetic will acquire 10% of $FLUID on the open market.
Tokenization is big part of institutional adoption and I like Backpack's $BP here despite the recent pump.
Need more ideas for institutional adoption.
5. Airdrop farming...
... has become industrialized for a while now.
Still, I bet on successful TGE of Variational's $VAR
Major catalyst for airdrop revival would be Polymarket. Their TGE could spread beyond CT and juicy airdrops could bring a new retail wave to crypto.
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Any other strategies I missed?
This tested us like never before.
Late evening, while most of us were with family, some at hospitals with loved ones even!
An unauthorised withdrawal hit us.
In minutes, the Flash team dropped everything. We paused the entire protocol almost immediately. No hesitation. Back at our desks, digging through the exploit, tracing every detail, and locking it down.
We worked through the night until 7-8am. No sleep. No breaks. Just pure focus to protect every single user.
Proud to say under 24hr:
✅ Trading was back live
✅ The lost funds were fully covered by the team
✅ Deposits & withdrawals resumed
✅ Systems hardened with the fix deployed
This wasn’t just code. This was everyone on the team choosing the community over everything else. The Flash team showed up when it mattered most.
Super honoured to build Flash with @XohebS@Mabrehan@allinbitcoin_@AlchemizeOne@MightieMags@Crypt0Panda@Frost_8bit@m_a_zeeshan and the @magicblock team
We built Flash for transparent, fast, reliable perps on Solana, and yesterday proved we’ll always put safety and users first, no matter the personal cost.
Huge thanks to every beast who stayed calm and trusted us. We’re stronger because of you.
Welcome back. Let’s trade.
We're fully back online. Trading, deposits, and withdrawals have all resumed as normal.
The exploited amount has been fully replenished, and as promised, no user was affected.
All funds are safu.
Thank you for your patience and trust throughout this. We're coming out of this stronger, with hardened systems and lessons learned. Back to building.