owen

#ncfc fan | Maths PhD Student @ Imperial & Oxford

[owen @owenfutter]

What an unbelievable night. Roll on the QF in Miami

[owen @owenfutter]

@fc_mossman Would love to see more instances of the biggest over-performers (over a large enough number of samples?)

[owen @owenfutter]

@sertalpbilal Ouch! I did similar last week, missed the deadline for my bench boost & transfers to doublers. Probably lost about 30pts but not as bad this 😭

[owen @owenfutter]

@fc_mossman Exactly what I would have expected! Hopefully Anderson and Wharton cement themselves in the England setup

[owen @owenfutter]

@quantymacro Would love to read!

[David__Osland @David__Osland]

If VAT on private school fees is 'class war', what's the right term for 8% compound interest on student loans?

[owen @owenfutter]

@Alice_Jane92 Hi Alice, ill take it 😊 follow back so i can DM

[owen @owenfutter]

@katefutter Looks like the city of roundabouts!

[Jesse Livermore @Jesse_Livermore]

"Nature abhors an undiversified bet"

Related to Kris' poll results below, here's a talk from MIT's Andrew Lo in which he elegantly works through an evolutionary explanation for the puzzle of probability matching. Technical at certain points, but he goes on to make it intuitive.

[owen @owenfutter]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England 1-2 Spain 🇪🇸

Sixth and final match. What a journey, thank you Gareth for the memories 🙏🏼

[owen @owenfutter]

Paying just to watch Jude at this point

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England 1-0 Serbia🇷🇸

[owen @owenfutter]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England (5) 1-1 (3) Switzerland 🇨🇭

Only just got round to adding this one. One more in Berlin tomorrow 🤞🏼

[owen @owenfutter]

@England @KLONEuk

[owen @owenfutter]

@elFreddy22_ @Schadenfreud1st So assuming you currently have Grimaldo at 8, then I get:

Grimaldo (C) Threshold:
- With Mbappe: 8.69
- With Simons: 8.38

Thats still quite tight and depends on your risk preferences.. if Mbappe plays then I would twist.

[owen @owenfutter]

This is a nice mathematical problem that faces us in #EUROfantasy. Do we stick with our current captain or twist and move it onto the next one?

I am on the train to Germany 🇩🇪 for the euros so got some free time to dig in and solve this problem.

[Sam @FPLSportScience]

It is perceived to be subjective but an objectively correct answer to captaincy stick or twist in fantasy games exists.

What equation do you input the xPoints/EV (subjective element) of your remaining captains into, to get a value that you should stick with?

Cc: Analytics FC

[owen @owenfutter]

@Raghy78d Great question actually, I think it is quite different across positions too. The upside of a defender is probably lower than that of an attacker too. I’ll try have a think and look into it!