nightingale ⚓

Stock market & Business Analytics professional | Agnostic | Arsenal Fan | I don't suffer fools gladly | Lover of books

[nightingale ⚓ @oyecima]

@Tony1giggs Congratulations Tony 🎊🎉, wishing all the best in your next endeavours

[Ed Conway @EdConwaySky]

📽️My primer on the UK's much-hyped Defence Investment Plan.
A plan literally no-one's very happy with.
Least of all the Burnham camp, who have been left with two black holes to fill. The one everyone's talking about... and then the (even bigger) one at the end of the vid.

[nightingale ⚓ @oyecima]

@Rotankwot @Nairametrics Congratulations Rotus 🎊🎉

[Ewgi @Ssaasquatch]

This is the Part 1 of a series I am doing on Kelvin Ayebaefie Emmanuel. A rather interesting figure with a well-documented track record of misrepresentation, intimidation, and obtaining money under false pretense.

What’s particularly troubling is the role media companies like @ARISEtv and @channelstv continues to play in amplifying his voice. Repeatedly platforming him on key issues and, in the process, lending him a sense of credibility he arguably hasn’t earned making it easy for him to scheme his next set of victims.

The goal of this series is simple: to put the information out there, in one place, so people can make informed decisions and avoid becoming victims of whatever comes next.

Happy reading!

https://t.co/iTnvwtJQjA

[Habyb @eta_habyb]

If you can, read the comments also.

It is a gift article. Enjoy.

African governments turn to complex derivatives as debt costs rise - https://t.co/0IE7HzRPwm via @FT

[Arsenal @Arsenal]

Landing soon ⚡

[Olufemi AWOYEMI @OlufemiAwoyemi]

Ellah Lakes N235bn Public Offer: A Capital Market Calibration Moment

INTRO
The closure of the @ellahlakesplc N235bn Public Offer without achieving its minimum allotment threshold is a precise market signal. It is not a governance scandal, a regulatory failure, or a corporate collapse. It is the pricing mechanism functioning as designed, signaling that the terms of the offer, its size relative to the issuer's capital base and earnings profile, its yield proposition relative to prevailing sovereign rates, and its absorption requirement relative to the structural depth of the NGX, did not align with investor demand at the time of execution. Understanding why that misalignment occurred is more instructive than cataloguing its outcome.

At a moment when the @DMONigeria is clearing FGN bonds at marginal rates of 15.50% to 15.74% and investment-grade commercial paper is available at premium short-duration yields, any equity offering that cannot immediately articulate a risk-adjusted return premium faces a structural headwind that no amount of market communication can override. Ellah Lakes encountered exactly that headwind.

This analyst update is a market inquest, a structural analysis, a regulatory inquiry, and an examination of the mechanics, which tests the company's formal response, assesses @SECNigeria's formal reply to our enquiry, and draws the structural lessons that issuers, advisors, and regulators will need to internalise.

Read the analysis for context.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS: A CAPITAL MARKET CALIBRATION MOMENT
The Ellah Lakes N235bn Public Offer did not fail. It was declined by the market on terms that were not aligned with the demand, yield, and liquidity conditions prevailing at the time of execution.

That distinction matters because it shapes the appropriate response. The appropriate response is not remediation of a governance failure. It is a recalibration of offer design, timing, pricing, and sequencing in the next capital raise attempt.

The SEC's formal response adds an important institutional dimension to this assessment. The Commission has confirmed that it operates a disclosure-based regulatory framework, that Ellah Lakes met all disclosure requirements, that the market's rejection of the offer is evidence of investor protection working as designed, and that all subscribers will receive their full capital plus accrued interest. These are four substantive confirmations that elevate the quality of market information available to investors and analysts.

@ellahlakesplc has confirmed its strategic direction is unchanged, that its operating business is intact, and that its ARPN acquisition strategy is proceeding through alternative financing. These are executable commitments that the market will now assess against delivery.

For the broader market, the more important signal remains structural. Nigeria's @ngxgrp will not realise its potential as a primary capital formation venue for the agricultural sector without progress on three fronts simultaneously: sovereign yields must compress sufficiently to restore equity's relative attractiveness; institutional market-making and book-building infrastructure must deepen; and the SEC should consider introducing pre-offer demand verification mechanisms, consistent with its disclosure-based mandate, that help issuers and advisors calibrate offer terms to realistic market demand before public commitments are made.

The Commission's own responses suggest it sees room for continuous evolution, even if not imminent change. That openness is itself constructive.

THE ANALYSIS >>>> https://t.co/gPFRcg8lrq via @proshare @TheAnalystNG

cc: @ngxregco @cisnigeria @CiiaNigeria @BusinessDayNg @FrontierAFR

[nightingale ⚓ @oyecima]

@OlufemiAwoyemi @proshare @SECNigeria @ngxgrp @cisnigeria Probably assumed the market was blind and forgetful. Reminiscing of the era pre the 2010 market meltdown...

[Arojinle @arojinle1]

Trust Yorùbá women to throw in some shouting commentaries when a seemingly dangerous event is averted. The rock python is very big though.

[nightingale ⚓ @oyecima]

@Rufyb Thanks for this YoY comparison analysis. It will be nice to see the chart for the PFAs allocation to equities plotted against MPR rates for same period. Furthermore, are there any emperical evidence of a causal r/ship btw the two.

Once again thanks 4 ur analytical insights here

[nightingale ⚓ @oyecima]

@OlufemiAwoyemi @Nedu64 @proshare Evidence based analysis> sentimental & biased conclusion

[Arsenal @Arsenal]

WHOSE HOUSE?

[nightingale ⚓ @oyecima]

@StateDept @threadreaderapp unroll

[England @England]

Wishing @IanWright0 a very happy birthday! 🦁🥳

[Rufybaba @Rufyb]

Mecure Industries Q3 2025 Results

Mecure's stellar run extends in Q3, supported by capacity expansion done in previous quarters. The coy had always operated at full capacity, leaving a lot of money on the table. And so investments were made, and the results are evident.

The growth numbers are insane.

[AlexanderOneal @Ogbovoh90]

You go Dey cheat on a ghetto girl😂

[nightingale ⚓ @oyecima]

@Rufyb @threadreaderapp unroll

[IRUOMA❤️🥳 @FluffyAmaka]

Good morning oo!
If e reach your turn, call Burna boy🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Ifedayo (JIMCRUZ) @ifedayo_johnson]

The day Saheed Osupa proved himself as the GOAT of Fuji music! 🐐❤️

Ogo’badan.

[Ethan 🇨🇲 @tebzafc]

Arsenal 2025/26 - All Goals (so far)