Oyster Analytics

Two former college ballplayers modeling the next generation of MLB Talent.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

1/5: Here's an explanation of our prospect modeling! Our models use minor league performance, biographical, and draft data to predict prospects' likelihood of making MLB, becoming a "regular" (at least 2 fWAR total, 1 per 600 PA) and a "star" (5 fWAR total, 2.5 per 600 PA).

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

Emerson's high K rate in MLB was as expected, but we didn't foresee his jump in power! He has been elevating well in the bigs, upping his overall power output. He's still vastly outperforming his xwOBA, but this is a welcome change for the typically GB-happy Emerson.

[Down on the Farm @downonthefarm12]

With managers often getting stick for pitching change decisions that go wrong, we set out to evaluate these managerial calls. Splitting the Napoleons (those who let pitchers ride till the end) from the quick hook McClellans and Grants, we evaluate each manager's decision-making!

[Down on the Farm @downonthefarm12]

This week, for the Down on the Farm Podcast, we'd like to do a mailbag segment! Have questions on our rankings, prospects in general, in-game strategy, our past articles, or anything else? Now is the time to ask! We'll get to as many questions as we can on next Tuesday's pod!

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

@BesartsMind @WiscoGrant @ONABAMfan The issue is he doesn’t really have that good of an eye, he just never swings! He also just hits tons of grounders too.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

Dave Roberts sounds like us on the pod: it’s all about age/level and position plays a massive role in projectability!

[Chuy 🏃🏽‍♂️💨🆙 @LethalCashChuy]

Dave Roberts got hit with the uno reverse card 🤣

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

@IRLhandshake @mnolangray State flagship was 3x cheaper than the private school I went to, but after aid, the private was cheaper.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

We were surprised when Arroyo cracked our preseason top 30, but he's torn up Triple-A this season! His power is the best it has ever been, his contact rates are stellar, and he's elevating at a high rate. His lone fear is high chase rates, but his contact helps compensate!

[Francys Romero @francysromeroFR]

The Cincinnati Reds plan to promote infielder prospect Edwin Arroyo in the coming hours, per sources.

Arroyo, 22, a native of Puerto Rico, is the Reds' No. 3 prospect according to @MLBPipeline.

Elly De La Cruz is expected to be placed on the injured list.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

We talked about Gonzalez in a few pieces, he’s been one of 2026’s breakout stars! He may be set to debut, and with his new power, he’s ready.

[FutureSox @FutureSox]

Jacob Gonzalez called out on an inside slider. He has now been pulled from the game.

He went to SS, and was called back. #Knights

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

Arias has been Keith Law's guy since day one, and we concur with his aggressive projection! Very few SS show plus power without K issues, but Arias is that guy. As he's gained strength, the power has fully surfaced, and he's shot up our model. A future star!

[The Athletic MLB @TheAthleticMLB]

We’ve already seen a plethora of players from @keithlaw’s preseason top 100 MLB prospect rankings reach or appear in the majors this year, including the top two prospects, five of the top 10, four of the next 10 and 18 from the top 50.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

@tacoandrover Not yet! But that's a good idea. Here is Wood's card from an old tweet in April of 2024. I think he ended just in the top 10 for us.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

@tsutton94 @BenVerlander Machado may possibly be the worst contract in baseball to take on right now. I don't think a single team would even consider taking him for free. You don't get any of the good years, just the bad ones.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

@tangotiger @MinSub4 In theory, yes, but this assumes that catchers are both aware of this and challenging optimally. If a C is unwisely being too stingy with their challenges, a P challenge may not be so bad. Ideally, C are locked in on the value of their challenges, and P are told to step aside.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

Was away during Ramírez's debut, but better late than never! Ramírez made our preseason top 100 as a young player with elite contact skills, but this year, he's added high-end power to the mix. If there's one under-the-radar 2026 debut that hits it big, we think it's him!

[Down on the Farm @downonthefarm12]

The industry is settled on the Jesús Mades of the world, but what about guys fresh to the fold? First-full-year prospects tend to be polarizing, and we take a look at these "engmas" and others who have yo-yoed in our model to see if their surges are worth paying attention to!

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

Podcast Link:
https://t.co/JpXBeBoCeY

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

If you're as obsessed with minor league baseball as we are, the Down on the Farm podcast might seem AI-targeted for your listening pleasure! Check out this week's version (and others) at the link in the comments.

[The Hollywood Reporter @THR]

Spotify Introduces AI-Generated Personal Podcasts https://t.co/NSHw1C6OWW

[Down on the Farm @downonthefarm12]

This week's podcast is out! We talk Devin Fitz-Gerald's McGonigle-esque High-A run, how teams can target underrated players in trades, and why we're okay with newly modeled talent "yo-yoing" in our rankings. Tune in on our Substack or your favorite podcast streaming outlet.

[Oyster Analytics @oysteranalytics]

@Seth_3773 I mean, college baseball in the portal era has gotten complicated enough where these positions are required. Gone is the linear HS/JUCO-to-Vandy-to-pro early-if-good-enough pathway. It's like the pros, and big-time college teams need a pseudo GM figure.

[Down on the Farm @downonthefarm12]

Devin Fitz-Gerald headlines this week's hottest prospects with his banner 5 HR outburst! We write about him, Kane Kepley, Joshua Kuroda-Grauer, and more in this week's Weekly Pearls piece. Link in comments.