Pablo Feden

Amateur trading

[Holiness @F1BigData]

Drivers who have finished all races this season:
🇦🇷 Franco Colapinto

End of the list

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@MuyCAI puede haber sido casualidad, pero la cancha de rafaela era una gaver la verdad

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@agusaldazz bue lpm..

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@agusaldazz Agus te iba a consultar por qué Medina no es tenido en cuenta p primera, es el 8 polifuncional que podría jugar por PC o con él. Cómo quedó de la lesión de hoy?

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@brujodegalileo completando la reversion del gasoducto norte, la obra de puna, un poco de rigi para realizar la interconexion neuquen cordoba, pasaria de los 60mm de m3 diarios a casi 100 (2030 aprox, no el siglo q viene). es un papelazo de 6 dol, pero sin flujo va a seguir ahi donde está

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@KloppDeJurgen @agusaldazz Comiéndose goleadas en laferrere

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@NieveJuancito Pienso en cómo esta productividad hubiera contrarrestado mi vagancia para hacer la tesis de la facultad, y se me cae una lagrima

[Crémieux @cremieuxrecueil]

This is a super cool website.

You can scroll around and look at any country's population pyramid, fertility rate, and mortality rate by year.

Check this out:

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@AJonatanPerez acabadisimo

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@Sebas_Neman Que lastima q no se anime a q jueguen los dos y marcono se quede en el banco. Lograría un medio equilibrado y dinámico
Y si me apuras de punta dejo a naboldo y Guti. Ávalos los guardo p el "como sea".

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@Promiedos @FotMob dejen de poner al machuca (falso) malayo en el banco de suplentes de Independiente, el que juega es Matheo Benítez Machuca 😘

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@BartuUras @Vincent_Vega_00 @Satellogic https://t.co/Fk5HUhwAkp

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@TootsieSilvers "RDW today (July 30, 2026) announced that it will report financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, after market close on Wednesday, August 5, 2026.
Management will also conduct a conference call starting at 9 a.m. ET on Thursday, August 6, 2026..."

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@earnings_guy $SATL Satellogic (NASDAQ: SATL) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, after the market close.
Make some room for the lady 😄

[Nelson Lafit @nelsonlafit]

Gracias.

[🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🇪🇺 Dylan Thomas 🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 @dylanthomas91]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Cymru 🤝 Argentina 🇦🇷

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@AJonatanPerez jugador mas util que vistoso, y mas recambio que starting5

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@juegosimple__ https://t.co/cwSbUMXx90

[Diego Basch @dbasch]

Last week there was a flawed (and now deleted) analysis that claimed that Messi was 5.9 sigma above other players. I decided to redo it properly, asking the following questions:

1) what data should we use?
2) what is the relevant population?
3) What distribution does it fit?

I scraped FBref from 1995-96 through 2024-25. I decided to keep only players who are categorized as forward first (position starts with FW). No goalies, no defenders, no midfielders. For the final analysis I used seasons from 2014-15 onward, because FBref’s assist data is incomplete in many older seasons.

The metric I used is non-penalty goals + assists per 90. Penalties are valuable, but penalty-taking is partly a team assignment. Sometimes a defender is in charge of them (Argentines might remember Daniel Passarella, an amazing defender whose left leg fired missiles). The distribution is obviously not normal, so I tried several to see which fits best. Normal, gamma, exponential, weibull, lognormal. Which one do you think works best? It's gamma.

The top aggregate players by non-penalty G+A/90 were:

1. Lionel Messi
2. Kylian Mbappe
3. Luis Suarez
4. Erling Haaland
5. Robert Lewandowski
6. Cristiano Ronaldo (!)
7. Sergio Aguero

The qualified striker-season sample has mean non-penalty G+A/90 of 0.508 and standard deviation of 0.230. Messi’s aggregate rate across his qualified seasons is
1.238.

So if we compare Messi’s sustained career rate to the striker-season distribution:

(1.238 - 0.508) / 0.230 ≈ 3.18

That puts Messi about 3.2 standard deviations above the qualified striker-season mean. Under the fitted Gamma distribution, his aggregate rate is around the 99.31st percentile. This is way more reasonable than the crazy 5.9 standard deviations claim that went viral.

We know that Messi is the GOAT. There hasn't been anyone like him. HOWEVER, he is not a miracle Jesus Christ asteroid-kills-dinosaurs phenomenon. Among long-career qualified forwards, there are 102 players with at least 100 total 90s, after only counting individual striker seasons with at least 20 90s played. Messi is the only one at or above his aggregate rate. If 1/102 were the true base rate (huge assumption) then the chance of seeing at least one Messi-level career among the next 25 comparable careers is about 22%, among the next 100, about 63%. Will that take 25 years? 100 years? I don't know. The young among you will probably see another Messi in their lifetimes, those of us in our 50s might not, and we're lucky to have witnessed him.

If there's interest I'll make a github repo with everything I did (with a ton of help from Codex, of course).

[Pablo Feden @pablofeden]

@dbasch @aguerosergiokun apareces vos papá!