Quick update on the general market...
1. This is one of the more impressive lockout rallies I've seen, at least when looking at the Nasdaq.
2. Sentiment has remained very contained, almost impressively so and still very constructive.
3. Almost no distribution, and no meaningful distribution (heavy volume selling days where NYSE or Nasdaq close down >1%)
4. Breadth. While many are saying breadth is terrible it is pretty consistent with what we've seen over the last number of years, namely that the environment is more selective. NYSE A/D line looks like it wants to confirm upon a breakout and the NYSE Comp is tracing out a pretty nice consolidation.
Conclusion: 'Well, this is a bull market, you know!'
-Mr Partridge aka 'Old Turkey'
(Reminiscences of a Stock Operator)
SI follow-up: after 2 higher lows, SI wasn't ripe to do trend reversal fm down to up on a 120-minute chart. 1) needed to trade above VolStop line, 2) then take out the high of the A B C up (green red green = a b c up). Then it could assault the single prints. bracketing markets are annoying but this is 100% pure technical.
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I’m creating the most comprehensive overview ever made on risk management and I keep on coming back to this quote from one of the greatest philosopher’s to ever live.
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” -Mike Tyson
Hearing this from a 6-year full-time pro means the world to us! Our goal at CTT is to outwork the market, do the heavy lifting on prep, and push our members to be their absolute best.
If you're tired of trading alone and want to surround yourself with a team of dedicated traders, come trade with us:
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The box on the left was "single prints", or undeveloped area on last excess markup. Beautiful repair today. That is the most extreme impulse to the downside the market has seen in weeks. Leg 1 down. Sets up a leg 2 down for next week.
APRIL ‘26 TOP OPPS
Another really active month with huge opportunities across oil, $CAR, and the all-time high breakouts in semis. $CAR and swing longs in semis were best IMO. As always these opportunities are dissected in detail as part of my course.
*$USO*
*$CAR*
*Semis*
4/2 $SBAC
4/6 $UNH
4/22 $FLYYQ
4/23 $SKLZ
4/27 $POET
Our open positions are performing well, which has me leaning more aggressive on the long side. That said, I remain quick to exit any losers as this environment is producing plenty of opportunities. $MU $SIMO $GLW $IBKR $DELL $SEI
A losing streak is nothing more than the order in which results happen.
Short term results are heavily influenced by randomness, and their order is a product of chance.
Order does not affect probability.
What determines the reliability of probability is the sample size, not the order of what is inside it.
The only thing being affected by the order is your thinking.
AMD - this island ( on todays open down) will be one for the text books! Yesterday itt gave a WRR SALE when it traded below the low of that last big bar up.