I’m starting a 1000-day experiment.
Every single day I’ll buy 1 $HYPE - no matter what the price is.
Day 1 of 1000 starts today.
Why? Because I believe discipline beats prediction. And I want to prove it publicly.
Follow along if you’re curious where this ends up.
what if we face a boring, sideways bear market for the next 6 to 12 months? for my vault strategy, everything will be completely fine. we don’t need massive macro trends
as long as there is amplitude, we can keep harvesting volatility. honestly, staying at these levels longer is actually better for a long-term project. the vault thrives in a choppy, sideways range. we will make money when the trend finally breaks out, but right now, it’s a great opportunity to accumulate more tokens at a much better average entry price before that trend even begins
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 7
leader return since 26.02.26: 48.1%
annualized: 179% APR
past month return: 141% APR
$btc same period: $68,000 → $64,000 (-5.9%)
$btc annualized: -21.9% APR
wild 48 hours. saylor actually selling btc broke the “strategy only buys”paradigm, and the market needs time to digest the psychological hit. mm's used the noise to nuke the board. btc bled out much harder than the rest at night, though alts eventually caught down today
this is exactly what helps us survive: zero high leverage, a healthy cash buffer, and strict asset selection. looking at the absolute bloodbath of liquidations over the past couple of days, the vault is holding up in solid profit. performance against btc is massive. sometimes i get the itch to take on more risk, but days like this are the perfect reminder of why that's a terrible idea
sector rotation is moving fast. two weeks ago, privacy was the clear outperformer. then it cooled off and perps caught the bid with ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 rallying right behind the hyperliquid ecosystem. now they are resting, and the ai sector is shooting up ($VVV, ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 ) i hold also bittensor:native and solana:3iQL8BFS2vE7mww4ehAqQHAsbmRNCrPxizWAT2Zfyr9y in the same ai bucket, but they're completely silent for now. everything has its time.
overall, it feels like another wave of the cycle where people have lost a ton of money, gotten disappointed, and are leaving crypto. honestly, i agree with them - if you missed the few lifeboat tokens like hyperliquid:native , $VVV, and zcash:native , the timeline looks incredibly depressing. i got lucky to catch a piece of those, which directly explains the strong results of the vault.
i'm still a long-term believer in btc and even scooped a little more spot during this dump. but right now, there is zero greed. everyone is in fear or complete apathy. we are sitting comfortably on the opposite side of that fear, continuing to harvest volatility, slowly building our positions, and waiting
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 6
leader return since 26.02.26: 60%
annualized: 258% APR
$BTC same period: $68,000 → $77,400 (+13.9%)
$BTC annualized: 60% APR
choppy week for btc. the 200dma rejected price for the seventh time this month, the $76k floor got swept, and we're sitting around $77k into the close. mark cuban publicly capitulated on the hedge narrative and sold most of his bag, which felt like a fitting macro tell for the week
vault did its job. rolling 30d sits at 381% APR, TVL up to $23.4k. three names carried most of the lift
$HYPE was the biggest contributor, +37% on the week to a fresh ATH near $62. the catalysts kept stacking. bitwise launched the BHYP ETF on NYSE with native staking on may 14, a16z was spotted accumulating spot, coinbase and circle committed to stake for AQAv2, and FDV crossed solana for the first time. and there's real revenue underneath all of it, $896M over the last twelve months from a team smaller than twenty people. the inventory leg is doing exactly what it was supposed to
$ZEC was the second pillar. SEC closed the foundation probe without enforcement, multicoin disclosed accumulation, robinhood listing came through, ETF speculation is building. RSI is hot at 75, but with about 30% of supply now shielded the print reads more like adoption than a 2021-style mania
$VVV got more size last week. didn't quite fill all the targets but enough to matter. up over 1500% from december lows, now forming a double-top at $19 with $12.41 as the neckline. not taking a directional view on the break - the vault will trade what's in front of it
a few rotations this week
$UNI is out. too much ETH-ecosystem weight in the book already, and the DEX slot is covered by jupiter and aero, both of which actually move. UNI sat there as a beta-style hold without enough oscillation to earn its place
$XMR is out for now. paying funding without printing volatility. i still like the asset, just not in this regime. will come back to it when the privacy bid spills out of ZEC into the rest of the sector
$PEPE is out. dormant, no rhythm. it will run eventually, but i'd rather not pay the carry while waiting
what came in: $SPX and $FARTCOIN took the freed-up capital. both have the oscillation profile and the community structure that mid-cap memes need to keep cycling. they actually move
and one new addition - gold, laddering in slowly
three reasons gold makes sense in the vault
first, correlation. gold-to-crypto sits near zero most days and goes negative when risk-off hits. the book is structurally long volatility on alts, so a low-correlation base is essentially free diversification. when alts compress, gold often does the opposite
second, the vol profile. annualized gold vol runs 12-18% versus 60-100% on alts. counterintuitive part is that lower-vol regimes are often the cleanest for what we do here. fewer fakeouts, tighter ATR steps, more honest cycles. consistent oscillation beats wild swings for harvest
third, the macro tape. central bank buying, de-dollarization, fiscal deficits, gold ETF AUM at records. structural bid is intact. tactically gold pulled back about 18% from the january ATH at $5,589 to around $4,560, which is a reasonable laddering zone. cuban literally rotated from BTC into this narrative this week. the institutional flow is visible
position size stays small for now. this is a probe, not a thesis trade
keep working
everyone is crying about a boring summer, with influencers claiming we must dump further. maybe we go lower, maybe we don’t - nobody actually knows. anyone giving exact dates and price targets for the short term is either clueless or straight-up lying to you. right now, the crowd is waiting for a drop below $60k to scoop up btc on a liquidation cascade. i wouldn’t be surprised if we don't even drop that low, or just catch a quick wick down before reversing. after 9 years in this market, i’ve learned one thing: short-term analysis is nothing but a guessing game
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 6
leader return since 26.02.26: 60%
annualized: 258% APR
$BTC same period: $68,000 → $77,400 (+13.9%)
$BTC annualized: 60% APR
choppy week for btc. the 200dma rejected price for the seventh time this month, the $76k floor got swept, and we're sitting around $77k into the close. mark cuban publicly capitulated on the hedge narrative and sold most of his bag, which felt like a fitting macro tell for the week
vault did its job. rolling 30d sits at 381% APR, TVL up to $23.4k. three names carried most of the lift
$HYPE was the biggest contributor, +37% on the week to a fresh ATH near $62. the catalysts kept stacking. bitwise launched the BHYP ETF on NYSE with native staking on may 14, a16z was spotted accumulating spot, coinbase and circle committed to stake for AQAv2, and FDV crossed solana for the first time. and there's real revenue underneath all of it, $896M over the last twelve months from a team smaller than twenty people. the inventory leg is doing exactly what it was supposed to
$ZEC was the second pillar. SEC closed the foundation probe without enforcement, multicoin disclosed accumulation, robinhood listing came through, ETF speculation is building. RSI is hot at 75, but with about 30% of supply now shielded the print reads more like adoption than a 2021-style mania
$VVV got more size last week. didn't quite fill all the targets but enough to matter. up over 1500% from december lows, now forming a double-top at $19 with $12.41 as the neckline. not taking a directional view on the break - the vault will trade what's in front of it
a few rotations this week
$UNI is out. too much ETH-ecosystem weight in the book already, and the DEX slot is covered by jupiter and aero, both of which actually move. UNI sat there as a beta-style hold without enough oscillation to earn its place
$XMR is out for now. paying funding without printing volatility. i still like the asset, just not in this regime. will come back to it when the privacy bid spills out of ZEC into the rest of the sector
$PEPE is out. dormant, no rhythm. it will run eventually, but i'd rather not pay the carry while waiting
what came in: $SPX and $FARTCOIN took the freed-up capital. both have the oscillation profile and the community structure that mid-cap memes need to keep cycling. they actually move
and one new addition - gold, laddering in slowly
three reasons gold makes sense in the vault
first, correlation. gold-to-crypto sits near zero most days and goes negative when risk-off hits. the book is structurally long volatility on alts, so a low-correlation base is essentially free diversification. when alts compress, gold often does the opposite
second, the vol profile. annualized gold vol runs 12-18% versus 60-100% on alts. counterintuitive part is that lower-vol regimes are often the cleanest for what we do here. fewer fakeouts, tighter ATR steps, more honest cycles. consistent oscillation beats wild swings for harvest
third, the macro tape. central bank buying, de-dollarization, fiscal deficits, gold ETF AUM at records. structural bid is intact. tactically gold pulled back about 18% from the january ATH at $5,589 to around $4,560, which is a reasonable laddering zone. cuban literally rotated from BTC into this narrative this week. the institutional flow is visible
position size stays small for now. this is a probe, not a thesis trade
keep working
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 6
leader return since 26.02.26: 60%
annualized: 258% APR
$BTC same period: $68,000 → $77,400 (+13.9%)
$BTC annualized: 60% APR
choppy week for btc. the 200dma rejected price for the seventh time this month, the $76k floor got swept, and we're sitting around $77k into the close. mark cuban publicly capitulated on the hedge narrative and sold most of his bag, which felt like a fitting macro tell for the week
vault did its job. rolling 30d sits at 381% APR, TVL up to $23.4k. three names carried most of the lift
$HYPE was the biggest contributor, +37% on the week to a fresh ATH near $62. the catalysts kept stacking. bitwise launched the BHYP ETF on NYSE with native staking on may 14, a16z was spotted accumulating spot, coinbase and circle committed to stake for AQAv2, and FDV crossed solana for the first time. and there's real revenue underneath all of it, $896M over the last twelve months from a team smaller than twenty people. the inventory leg is doing exactly what it was supposed to
$ZEC was the second pillar. SEC closed the foundation probe without enforcement, multicoin disclosed accumulation, robinhood listing came through, ETF speculation is building. RSI is hot at 75, but with about 30% of supply now shielded the print reads more like adoption than a 2021-style mania
$VVV got more size last week. didn't quite fill all the targets but enough to matter. up over 1500% from december lows, now forming a double-top at $19 with $12.41 as the neckline. not taking a directional view on the break - the vault will trade what's in front of it
a few rotations this week
$UNI is out. too much ETH-ecosystem weight in the book already, and the DEX slot is covered by jupiter and aero, both of which actually move. UNI sat there as a beta-style hold without enough oscillation to earn its place
$XMR is out for now. paying funding without printing volatility. i still like the asset, just not in this regime. will come back to it when the privacy bid spills out of ZEC into the rest of the sector
$PEPE is out. dormant, no rhythm. it will run eventually, but i'd rather not pay the carry while waiting
what came in: $SPX and $FARTCOIN took the freed-up capital. both have the oscillation profile and the community structure that mid-cap memes need to keep cycling. they actually move
and one new addition - gold, laddering in slowly
three reasons gold makes sense in the vault
first, correlation. gold-to-crypto sits near zero most days and goes negative when risk-off hits. the book is structurally long volatility on alts, so a low-correlation base is essentially free diversification. when alts compress, gold often does the opposite
second, the vol profile. annualized gold vol runs 12-18% versus 60-100% on alts. counterintuitive part is that lower-vol regimes are often the cleanest for what we do here. fewer fakeouts, tighter ATR steps, more honest cycles. consistent oscillation beats wild swings for harvest
third, the macro tape. central bank buying, de-dollarization, fiscal deficits, gold ETF AUM at records. structural bid is intact. tactically gold pulled back about 18% from the january ATH at $5,589 to around $4,560, which is a reasonable laddering zone. cuban literally rotated from BTC into this narrative this week. the institutional flow is visible
position size stays small for now. this is a probe, not a thesis trade
keep working
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 5
leader return since 26.02.26: 50%
annualized: 235% APR
BTC same period: $68,000 → $79,000 (+16.2%)
BTC annualized: 75% APR
choppy week. btc punched at $82k, got rejected at the 200dma four straight times, gave it all back. -2.3% on the week, broke $80k. vault took some heat on the mark-to-market side - inventory revalued lower on the names that don’t cycle as fast - but the rolling 30d still prints 229% APR. that gap to btc is the entire point of being here
quick on construction so depositors see what they’re actually paying for
vault holds two kinds of positions running side by side
workhorses - vol-harvesters. liquid names with stable oscillation profiles. these exist to close cycles. choppier the regime, more they print. they don’t post the screenshots. they do the compounding
inventory plays - slower names with structural setups. these aren’t here to cycle. they sit. accumulated through the boring middle, sold into fear & greed 70+. one trade done right, larger size, less frequency. the runner from a real cycle pays for ten flat weeks
both run inside the same system. i measure ATR per asset and size positions and grid spacing off that. higher ATR = wider grid, smaller chunks per leg. lower ATR = tighter grid, larger chunks. nothing here is vibes. every order has a reason and a place in the ladder. when a name’s ATR changes, the grid changes with it
why does any of this matter
if you trade crypto, in 90% of cases the honest move is to buy btc and hold. that’s the index. that’s the bar. anything else - your fund, your bot, your discretionary calls - has to clear that bar net of fees, slippage, taxes, and the hours you spend on it. most of active crypto underperforms a btc bag by a wide margin and never admits it
the vault’s whole job is to beat that index for me and for everyone in here. so far the gap is real (235% vs 75% APR) and i intend to keep it real. the rule that lets me keep it real is defense first. positions get protected before they get scaled. cash sits in reserve so when a real drawdown comes i’m a buyer with dry powder, not a forced seller with a margin call. low leverage, high discipline, target 50-70% APR
i’d rather miss upside than blow up a structure that compounds
keep working
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 5
leader return since 26.02.26: 50%
annualized: 235% APR
BTC same period: $68,000 → $79,000 (+16.2%)
BTC annualized: 75% APR
choppy week. btc punched at $82k, got rejected at the 200dma four straight times, gave it all back. -2.3% on the week, broke $80k. vault took some heat on the mark-to-market side - inventory revalued lower on the names that don’t cycle as fast - but the rolling 30d still prints 229% APR. that gap to btc is the entire point of being here
quick on construction so depositors see what they’re actually paying for
vault holds two kinds of positions running side by side
workhorses - vol-harvesters. liquid names with stable oscillation profiles. these exist to close cycles. choppier the regime, more they print. they don’t post the screenshots. they do the compounding
inventory plays - slower names with structural setups. these aren’t here to cycle. they sit. accumulated through the boring middle, sold into fear & greed 70+. one trade done right, larger size, less frequency. the runner from a real cycle pays for ten flat weeks
both run inside the same system. i measure ATR per asset and size positions and grid spacing off that. higher ATR = wider grid, smaller chunks per leg. lower ATR = tighter grid, larger chunks. nothing here is vibes. every order has a reason and a place in the ladder. when a name’s ATR changes, the grid changes with it
why does any of this matter
if you trade crypto, in 90% of cases the honest move is to buy btc and hold. that’s the index. that’s the bar. anything else - your fund, your bot, your discretionary calls - has to clear that bar net of fees, slippage, taxes, and the hours you spend on it. most of active crypto underperforms a btc bag by a wide margin and never admits it
the vault’s whole job is to beat that index for me and for everyone in here. so far the gap is real (235% vs 75% APR) and i intend to keep it real. the rule that lets me keep it real is defense first. positions get protected before they get scaled. cash sits in reserve so when a real drawdown comes i’m a buyer with dry powder, not a forced seller with a margin call. low leverage, high discipline, target 50-70% APR
i’d rather miss upside than blow up a structure that compounds
keep working
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 4
leader return since 26.02.26: +55%
annualized: 289% APR
BTC same period: $68,000 → $81,000 (+19.1%)
BTC annualized: 100% APR
vault widened the gap on btc this epoch. market went up then back down which is exactly the regime we want - the strategy earns in two places: long exposure on the assets we picked, and grid harvesting on volatility. choppy weeks compound better than clean trends for the second leg, so we take what the market gives us
rotation thesis worked as designed. privacy coins fired first - $ZEC did 3x from vault start, profit fixed, runner left on the table. then ondo ran on news. point is - we don't try to call which narrative fires next, that's a coin flip and the cost of being wrong is sitting in one bag while the others move without you. we hold a basket of names we'd be ok holding through a drawdown and let rotation come to us. one fires, we trim. next fires, we trim. that's the edge - not stock picking
updates: started accumulating $TON. price isn't great rn after the pump - entry isn't ideal - but the structural setup is real. durov pulling telegram back in as largest validator, fees cut 6x, MTONGA roadmap visibly executing step by step. this isn't a vibes pick, it's a serious play with telegram's distribution funnel behind it. starting size is small, scaling in on retracements
keep working
pakhom vault report - every Thursday epoch 5
leader return since 26.02.26: 50%
annualized: 235% APR
BTC same period: $68,000 → $79,000 (+16.2%)
BTC annualized: 75% APR
choppy week. btc punched at $82k, got rejected at the 200dma four straight times, gave it all back. -2.3% on the week, broke $80k. vault took some heat on the mark-to-market side - inventory revalued lower on the names that don’t cycle as fast - but the rolling 30d still prints 229% APR. that gap to btc is the entire point of being here
quick on construction so depositors see what they’re actually paying for
vault holds two kinds of positions running side by side
workhorses - vol-harvesters. liquid names with stable oscillation profiles. these exist to close cycles. choppier the regime, more they print. they don’t post the screenshots. they do the compounding
inventory plays - slower names with structural setups. these aren’t here to cycle. they sit. accumulated through the boring middle, sold into fear & greed 70+. one trade done right, larger size, less frequency. the runner from a real cycle pays for ten flat weeks
both run inside the same system. i measure ATR per asset and size positions and grid spacing off that. higher ATR = wider grid, smaller chunks per leg. lower ATR = tighter grid, larger chunks. nothing here is vibes. every order has a reason and a place in the ladder. when a name’s ATR changes, the grid changes with it
why does any of this matter
if you trade crypto, in 90% of cases the honest move is to buy btc and hold. that’s the index. that’s the bar. anything else - your fund, your bot, your discretionary calls - has to clear that bar net of fees, slippage, taxes, and the hours you spend on it. most of active crypto underperforms a btc bag by a wide margin and never admits it
the vault’s whole job is to beat that index for me and for everyone in here. so far the gap is real (235% vs 75% APR) and i intend to keep it real. the rule that lets me keep it real is defense first. positions get protected before they get scaled. cash sits in reserve so when a real drawdown comes i’m a buyer with dry powder, not a forced seller with a margin call. low leverage, high discipline, target 50-70% APR
i’d rather miss upside than blow up a structure that compounds
keep working
quick add: started laddering into $TON and $VVV on retracements this week
both are inventory plays not workhorses. TON has telegram’s distribution funnel finally turning on - durov back as largest validator, fees cut 6x, MTONGA executing step by step. VVV is the private-inference angle on the AI stack, real revenue, parallel narrative to the chip race
i don’t buy full size on day one. ladder in, sized off ATR, defend the position before scaling. the cost of being early is averaging down a few legs. the cost of being all-in at the wrong moment is sitting in one bag for 6 months while the market rotates without you
cant overstate how much experience matters in this game
ive been in crypto since 2017 and ive had both the wins and the punches in the face
and honestly losses teach you more than wins ever will
wins make you feel smart
losses make you actually competent
heres what they actually teach you:
risk management isnt a theory you read in a book its a scar
keeping cash for black swans is not «missing the move» its survival
sometimes not earning is the better trade than taking the risk to earn
because survived capital compounds
blown capital just becomes a lesson
someone else profits from
cycles are real
when everyone capitulates you scale in
when everyone believes “this time is different” you trim and start scaling into shorts slowly
you cant learn this from a thread or a book
you only feel it after enough bruises
this is exactly why i love the combo of twitter + a public vault on hyperliquid
everything is transparent everything is on chain
no hindsight edits no fake screenshots
my vault runs moderate risk no leverage above 3x ever
right now im not shorting yet
market still looks symmetric to me
when i see the specific signals im watching for ill start layering shorts in
not before
patience is also a position
friend asked to deposit $1k in my vault last month
told him to dca, market doesn’t owe anyone perfect entry
he put in $200 to «test»
$200 → $270
he hasn’t said a word but i can feel the regret through the screen
dca works exactly as designed and it still hurts