Pankaj Kumar

Plant today, grow for life. 🌱 Nifty, AI & money explained with real data and a little sarcasm. Not SEBI-registered | Views personal

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

Most Indian market content is one of two things:

→ Jargon you can't use
→ Tips you shouldn't use

I do neither.

What you'll get here:
📊 Results scorecards: actual vs Street estimate, the same day
📈 What really moved Nifty & Bank Nifty, in plain words
🤖 AI × money: what's hype, what's real
💸 Rupee maths on SIPs, tax & loans, no fluff

Real data. Zero jargon. A little sarcasm.

Follow if you'd rather understand the market than be told what to buy.

Not SEBI-registered | Views personal

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@dmuthuk Fair warning, but the data isn't showing panic yet. September SIP inflows hit a record ₹32,490 cr, and the stoppage ratio has fallen 5 months in a row to 78.5%.

Retail is holding up better than the mood suggests.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@BaluGorade Fair ask, but scale is the catch. The US has ~7.2 crore kids; India has 40 crore+. At ₹1,211 a share, one Reliance share each = ₹50,000 crore+.

Even Mota Bhai would ask for no-cost EMI.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@elonmusk "First of many" is the most bullish phrase a shareholder can hear. 73 million kids just became the youngest SpaceX investor base on Earth. On Earth, for now.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@REDBOXINDIA Meanwhile Indian kids next year: ₹501 in a Diwali envelope and a free lecture on why FD is the safest investment.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@darshitpatel84 Markets are stable. Stably going down. Nifty 10%+ off its August high, and somehow the only thing rising is crude.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@BaluGorade Fair point on AI. India barely has AI stocks, which is exactly why FPIs left for Korea and Taiwan. If that trade cools, analysts expect some money to rotate back here. The bust could be our refund.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@Asan_research Worth noting the goalpost moved: in April 2025, the IMF had India passing Germany in 2028. Now it's 2031, mostly due to rupee moves and GDP revisions. Rank #3 is still a forecast, not a done deal.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

"Easy to exit" is a compliment and a warning in the same sentence.

Crude, fertiliser, global capital flows: 2 of these 3 are outside India's control.

Real question: are FIIs leaving India, or leaving emerging markets in general?

Big difference. What's your take?

[CNBC-TV18 @CNBCTV18Live]

#FromCNBC | ‘Ease Of Liquidity Is Making It Easier For Investors To Exit’: FM #NirmalaSitharaman Exclusively To CNBC

FM Says India’s Deep & Liquid Markets Allow Investors To Exit Easily, But Stresses That There Is No Fundamental Weakness In The Indian Economy

Flags Crude Prices, Fertiliser Availability And Global Capital Flows As Key Challenges, While Maintaining That India’s Economic Fundamentals Remain Strong

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

Bajaj Finance declares Q2 results today.

The loan book is already out. The profit is the real exam.

What's already known (company update, 3 Oct):
• Loans managed: ₹5.85 lakh cr, up 26.5% in a year
• Customers: 12.9 crore. Roughly 1 in 11 Indians.
• New loans: 1.35 crore in one quarter

What the Street expects today:
• Net profit: ₹6,400–6,550 cr (vs ₹4,948 cr last year, +29–32%)
• Net interest income: ~₹13,300–13,400 cr (+23–24%)

But the headline profit is the easy part. Three numbers will decide the stock's mood tomorrow:

1️⃣ Margin (NIM): seen at ~9.4–9.6%. Borrowing got costlier, so even a 0.1% dip gets noticed.
2️⃣ Credit cost: seen at ~1.55–1.6%, down from ~2.05% a year ago. If bad loans stop falling, the 26% growth story gets awkward.
3️⃣ MSME and unsecured loans: last year's problem child. Is it actually fixed?

Results land after the board meeting. Analyst call at 6 PM.

Your guess? 👇
Beat / In line / Miss

Not investment advice.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@InvestorOfJAMMU Nifty after reading this: stays at 23,146 for the next six sessions just to annoy both camps 🤞

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@REDBOXINDIA Liquidity explains how they exit, not why. Earnings and the rupee explain why. Nifty fell 14.6% in USD while MSCI EM rose 39.3% (Jul '25–Sep '26). That's not a plumbing problem.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@elonmusk Over the first 60 mph it's closer to a tie. 0.81s to 60 works out to about 3.4g, and carrier pilots feel 3–4g on a catapult launch. The jet just doesn't stop at 60, it hits ~165 mph in 2–3 seconds.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@clashreport True on the UK, but "Europe" isn't one bloc here. The EU brought in its own ban on fuel refined from Russian crude in January. And the US extended its Russian-oil-at-sea waiver that same week.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@REDBOXINDIA One catch in the "value unlocking" story: Jio's ₹30,213 cr issue is 100% fresh. The cash goes to Jio and RIL sells nothing. RIL's 66% stake gets a price tag, not a payout.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@EricLDaugh Quiet winner here: Indian refiners. India took ~1.82M barrels/day of Russian crude in Sept (Kpler), and some of it sails to the UK as diesel. Sanctions on paper, arbitrage in practice.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@Vivek_Investor That's the ultimate compounding challenge. The next 5 years will lay the foundation, but scaling past $6–7T by 2030 is the immediate milestone to watch.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@Prakashplutus The triple threat of 5% yields, $110 oil, and AI credit jitters is taking a heavy toll. All eyes on the October 28 CPI and midterm elections

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@BMTheEquityDesk Safe travels! Keep a close eye on local updates and take care given the current situation. Enjoy the Alps!

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@beatsinbrief 12,700 came back, but 14,500 went out in the same nine months. Net, India still sent ~1,800 more tech workers to the US. Reverse brain drain is trending; the scoreboard says not yet.

[Pankaj Kumar @pankajkumar68]

@cryptowalax Small correction: it's a pause, not a ban. 17 AMCs stopped fresh lumpsum and new SIPs in gold FoFs from Oct 16. SIPs registered earlier continue and redemptions work. The exit door is open; only the entry is shut.