Pankit Gada

[Shreenidhi P @nid_rockz]

When taxation is the only thing govt cares for

Results are self explanatory

India vs global mkts for last 2 years

Looks like so called "Shock Absorbers" need a special shock treatment

Japan,Korea, Taiwan are up between 100-200% over the last 1 year

Nasdaq up 38%
Dow up 26%

DAX almost nearing life highs

All we do is:
Keep taxing middle class every year and burden them
Increasing taxation on equity markets and make sure FIis run out of India
Give freebies to the ones who don't want to work
Periodically, do farm loan waivers for the ones who never pay tax
On top of it, govt is doing OFS in such kind of mkt 🙏🙏

[Sekhar @LearningEleven]

The six signs that can confirm whether I have arrived as an investor: What's your score?

1. The "Silo" Mindset: I can make decisions to buy, sell, add, or reduce positions without waiting for consensus or seeking validation from others’ opinions.

2. Comfort with Uncertainty: I can translate half-baked data into conviction by connecting the dots instead of waiting for 100% clarity. If there were complete certainty, the stock likely wouldn’t offer meaningful upside. In other words, once the entire village knows the story, who is left to buy?

3. Ruthless Capital Allocation: I can ruthlessly cut bad decisions (including high conviction names) via stop-losses to protect capital, while aggressively topping up your winning ideas.

4. First-Principles Thinking: I have the habit of dissecting a business or macro event down to its foundational economic realities (cash flows, unit economics, supply chains), rather than accepting management narratives or broker reports at face value.

5. Ego Zero: I have the humility to instantly flip my thesis from bullish to bearish the moment new, contradictory facts emerge, completely overriding my own biases or past public stances. On a bad news, sell first, think later! In other words, I should be able to say, "Yes, I was wrong," without embarrassment or ego getting in the way.

6. The Hungry Bird: Committing to compounding my knowledge by learning at least one new thing every day, with a relentless focus on playing the long game rather than chasing short-term noise. The art of balancing between "what's now" and "what could be tomorrow".

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@theskindoctor13 He shd in indian t20 team right away!! Throughout the tournament he has best strike rate!! Only one can achieve that in videogame but here he is doing in real world with so much ease

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@MashraniVivek PROMPTS

[Punit Gosrani @punitgosrani]

Can’t even imagine the scale that China is planning!!

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@punitgosrani You need vision and political will power to do it!! China has both

[Sekhar @LearningEleven]

Timepass talk on Sunday

1. The Macros and the Micros

There’s a popular dialogue from the movie Border:
"Ghar ki chhat tapak rahi hai… baaki sab theek hai. Bablu ki haath ki haddi toot gayi… baaki sab theek hai."

That, in many ways, sums up India’s current economic backdrop, at least from an investor’s perspective.

Brent crude is hovering above $110. The Indian rupee breached the historic 96 mark against the USD for the first time.

US inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April 2026 (chart below), the highest since May 2023.

India’s wholesale inflation surged sharply to a 3.5-year high of 8.30% (provisional YoY) in April 2026, up from 3.88% in March 2026 and just 0.9% in April 2025.

Fuel and power inflation rose to 24.71% in April 2026 from 1.05% in March 2026, while crude petroleum and natural gas inflation touched 67.2%.

In contrast, headline retail inflation saw only a marginal uptick, inching up to 3.48% (provisional YoY) in April 2026 from 3.40% in March 2026.

That -4% gap between factory-level inflation (8%) and retail inflation (4%) suggests that manufacturers have not fully passed on the increase in input costs to consumers. As a result, corporate profit margins are taking a hit.

We have already seen several companies talk about raw material cost pressures impacting profitability. Q1FY27 could turn out to be even tougher on the margins front if inflationary pressures persist or intensify further.

Some of these costs will eventually have to be passed on to consumers, while some will continue to be absorbed by manufacturers. Either way, the pressure is building on both sides.

So, stay cognizant of the macro environment and avoid going overly aggressive with allocations.

That said, it’s not all gloomy.

Corporate sales growth for the December and March quarters has moved back into double-digit territory, and several small-cap companies have reported exceptionally strong PAT growth in Q4FY26.

2. Compressed Bio-Gas (CBG) theme picking up

VA Tech Wabag & PEAK Sustainability Ventures: Back in 2024, VA Tech Wabag and PEAK Sustainability Ventures signed an MoU with a shared vision to establish 100 Bio-CNG plants across sewage treatment facilities in India and other global markets.

On May 14, 2026, they officially launched the first commercial Bio-CNG project in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh. The project is being developed at a 70 MLD (Million Litres per Day) Sewage Treatment Plant (STP), where raw methane generated during municipal sewage treatment is captured and upgraded into commercial-grade Bio-CNG. The story is just getting started!

Reliance Industries: After perfecting pilot plants in Jamnagar and its first commercial-scale plant in Barabanki, UP, Reliance has moved into absolute mega-scale deployment, heavily targeting Andhra Pradesh. RIL signed an MoU with the Andhra Pradesh government committing ₹65,000 crore to establish 500 CBG plants over the next 4 to 5 years. Reliance focuses on Agricultural Residues (Paddy Straw, Press Mud, Napier Grass, and Cow Dung) as the feedstock.

PlanET Biogas India & Delta Bio Gas: PlanET Biogas (a subsidiary of Germany’s PlanET Biogas Group) partnered with Hyderabad-based Delta Bio Gas to establish a 12 Tons Per Day (TPD) CBG facility in Andhra Pradesh.

Mahindra Waste to Energy Solutions: Mahindra has also silently commercialized its waste-to-energy footprint in Andhra Pradesh.

Here is where it gets more interesting.

Public Sector OMCs (IOCL, HPCL, BPCL): Under the central policy framework, state-run Oil Marketing Companies have eliminated market risk for private developers by issuing long-term Letters of Intent (LOIs). OMCs are entering 10-to-15-year assured offtake contracts to purchase retail CBG at fixed commercial rates (typically around ₹45–55 per kg), ensuring predictable cash flow models for incoming plants

3. Suven Life Sciences: Key Clinical Milestones on the Horizon

Suven has historically positioned itself as a specialty CNS-focused discovery company, working on therapies related to Alzheimer’s disease, Depression Schizophrenia, Sleep disorders, Cognitive impairment, and Other neuropsychiatric conditions.

CNS drug development has one of the highest clinical failure rates in pharma but carry huge rewards if successful.

Key Pipeline Updates

Masupirdine (SUVN-502) – Alzheimer’s agitation & depression

• Around 75% patient enrollment for the Phase 3 trial is complete.
• Final trial data is expected by Q2/Q3FY28, opening up potential licensing or partnership opportunities.

Samilisand (SUVN-3031)

• Phase 3 trials have commenced.
• Data is expected by end-2027 or early-2028.

SUVN-911

• Phase 2 trials have been completed.
• Data is expected within a month. If positive, the company may move into Phase 3 with a co-development partner to share R&D costs.

Other Pipeline Molecules

• SUVN-G4010 is expected to enter Phase 2 by year-end.
• SUVN-D4010 has completed Phase 1 and is progressing toward Phase 2.

Some of the deals in CNS space:

Eli Lilly announced a definitive agreement to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals in a deal valued up to $7.8 billion

Johnson & Johnson acquired Intra-Cellular Therapies in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $14.6 billion

Neurocrine Biosciences announced an agreement to acquire Soleno Therapeutics in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.9 billion

I am not suggesting that Suven will necessarily be acquired by someone. The intention is only to highlight the kind of value successful CNS molecules can potentially generate. Management also hinted at potential commercial partnerships at a later stage.

That said, the success rate in CNS drug development is extremely low. No one can predict the future or guarantee clinical success, which is why these opportunities also come with very high risk.

4. RBZ Jewellers

I had touched upon this in one of the earlier editions of “Timepass Talk on Sunday,” and here’s the follow-up update.

The company remains on track to launch two large-format stores in Surat and Rajkot by Q2FY27. In addition, management is planning to open two mid-format stores in Gandhinagar and Eastern Ahmedabad within the current calendar year.

Naturally, inventory levels are expected to rise in the near term, which could put some pressure on the balance sheet. However, the company is gradually transforming itself into a larger organized retail jewellery franchise.

There are near-term headwinds due to the import duty hike and ongoing volatility in gold prices, but this could potentially evolve into a very interesting business by the end of FY27.

The stock is currently available at around 0.78x P/S and could offer even better value if sentiment around gold jewellery players remains weak.

At present, market liquidity is largely chasing themes such as AI/Data Centers, Electrification, and CDMO. However, value-oriented stories like these tend to get their due sooner or later.

5. EMS Companies, CCL, PCB, Ratnaveer

This past week, Thanks to @Vedansh_Ag, I came across an interesting development in the electronics manufacturing ecosystem, there is currently a shortage of Copper Clad Laminate (CCL), a critical raw material used in Printed Circuit Boards (PCBs).

At present, India is heavily dependent on imports for CCL requirements. Typically, CCL accounts for nearly 30–45% of the total PCB manufacturing cost. As a result, any sharp increase in CCL prices can significantly impact the margins of EMS and PCB players. In a prolonged shortage scenario, it could even lead to supply-chain disruptions and delivery delays.

Against this backdrop, Ratnaveer Precision Engineering is entering the Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) segment. Management believes this offers a first-mover advantage and could emerge as a meaningful long-term growth driver for the company.

The initial CapEx for one production line is around INR 45 crores. Management expects this line to generate approximately INR 108 crores in annual revenue, with EBITDA margins of around 20% and PAT margins of nearly 12%.

The project is expected to be commissioned by July 2026, with commercial sales likely to commence from September 2026.

While the contribution may initially account for only about 10% of the company’s annual revenue, and therefore may not materially impact near-term financials, it could become a strategically valuable asset over the longer term.

Importantly, the company also has plans to set up four additional production lines in the future.

That's all for this edition. Have a great Sunday!

Disclaimer: None or buy or sell recommendations. This publicly available information is shared for learning and education purposes.

[Sonal Bhutra @sonalbhutra]

Kudos to her.

We are frustrated with unnecessary political rallies, protests with no substance blocking roads, political banners. Stop behaving as if you own the city, you do not.

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

When to Start Buying in the Current Market

1. Don't buy the dip. The stock can dip further 50%.

2. Don't buy low P/E. Q4 Earnings will be bad (so P/E will rise).

3. Buy when liquidity wave turns. Follow the speed of FII outflows, not just the volume.

How to Follow Liquidity:

Don’t Buy Stocks Till FII “Selling Intensity” Is High

a. Selling intensity is a measure of the speed at which capital is exiting the market, rather than just the total volume of exit.

b. “Net FII Outflow” tells you how much money has left the building. “Selling Intensity” tells you how fast everyone tried to escape through the exit door at the same time.

c. DIIs can absorb FII exits only if FII selling intensity is low. SIP money comes in slowly every month. But FIIs have mountains of ready stock holdings. If they decide to sell fast, DIIs have no defence.

Liquidity Impact on the Markets

FII Selling Intensity Per Trading Hour = (Total Outflows in a Month) ÷ (Number of Trading Days in the Month x 6.25 Trading Hours Per Day)

JAN-JUNE 2024

FII Selling Intensity:
₹18 cr per hour

FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹14,000 cr

Nifty 50 Return: 10.4%
(1 Jan to 30 June, 2024)

NOTE: Low FII selling intensity; High Nifty returns.

JULY-DEC 2024

FII Selling Intensity:
₹84 cr per hour

FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹66,000 cr

Nifty 50 Return: 1.2%
(1 July to 31 Dec, 2024)

NOTE: High FII selling intensity; Low Nifty returns

JAN-JUNE 2025

FII Selling Intensity:
₹152 cr per hour

FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹1.14 lakh cr

Nifty 50 Return: 8.2%
(1 Jan to 30 June, 2025)

NOTE: High FII selling intensity. DIIs aggressively pushed up Nifty 50 to hold sentiment, but could not defend midcaps & smallcaps against this intensity. By early 2025, 70% of all midcaps & smallcaps were trading below their 200-day moving averages.

JULY-DEC 2025

FII Selling Intensity:
₹115 cr per hour

FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹86,000 cr

Nifty 50 Return: 2.4%
(1 July to 31 Dec, 2025)

NOTE: Moderate FII selling intensity; DIIs once again managed to defend Nifty 50, but could not stop the bloodbath in midcaps & smallcaps in the second half of 2025.

JAN-MAR 2026
(Only 3 months)

FII Selling Intensity:
₹339 cr per hour

FII Net Outflow:
(-) ₹1.27 lakh cr

Nifty 50 Return: (-) 14.7%
(1 Jan to 30 Mar, 2026)

NOTE: This was the FII velocity shock (high-speed capital exit in a very short period), which DIIs were unable to absorb. Nifty 50 finally capitulated.

When to Start Buying Stocks

a. Stage 1 – High Intensity: Till FII selling intensity remains high, the stock prices may only go down further. So, stay out.

b. Stage 2 – Moderate Intensity: When FII selling intensity moderates, stock prices may stagnate (further declines may be halted). It may still not be worth deploying your hard-earned cash in risky assets if there is stagnation (= no visible upside.)

c. Stage 3 – Low Intensity: Once FII selling intensity reduces significantly, then don’t wait for FIIs to become net positive buyers. You cannot wait for 100% safety. When there is 70-80% visibility, go all-in before the entry door closes.

d. Remember, there are 4 risks at present: (1) Global AI crash (2) Demand destruction in India due to IT job losses (3) Indian rupee depreciates further, triggering FII capital flight (4) SIP inflows slow down due to poor or no returns

Against these 4 risks, you need to at least see a clear visible upside (better than FD returns) to deploy your life's savings in market-linked assets. What happens if any one of these 4 risks materializes? So, go slow, respect risk, and watch the liquidity.

ENDQUOTE

“Earnings don’t move markets. Liquidity moves markets.” – Stanley Druckenmiller, Legendary Investor

@arabicatrader

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

Hidden Fragility of the Stock Market

1. FIIs are selling, but MF/SIP inflows are unchanged.

2. Liquidity is a fair-weather friend. Have you priced in the risk of momentum exhaustion by MF/SIP investors?

3. A slowdown in SIPs could expose the market's fragility

Stay Defensive:

System Fragility Rating: "Critical"

a. Just the way a hydraulic system lifts heavy loads, MF/SIP inflows have become a “structural bid” to support stock prices in India. What happens if this support breaks? Vested interests will never tell you to price in this risk.

b. The market is now addicted to ₹30,000 cr monthly SIP liquidity drug (to borrow Dr. Raghuram Rajan’s phrase.) Reduce the drug dosage and the addict goes into trauma.

c. With FIIs rejecting India’s high P/E valuations, DII support is like a single-engine aircraft. Even a mild wave of mutual fund redemptions could trigger chaos.

MF/SIPs are Going Strong

Monthly SIP Inflows:

2023: 14,000 cr p.m.
2024: 23,000 cr p.m.
2025: 31,000 cr p.m.
Jan 2026: 31,000 cr
Feb 2026: 30,000 cr

SIP + Lump-Sum MF AUM:

2023: 22 lakh cr
2024: 35 lakh cr
2025: 47 lakh cr
As of Feb 2026: 51 lakh cr

Smallcap & Midcap Indexes are Still Overvalued

a. Current P/E vs. Historical P/E (10-Yr Avg)

Nifty 50:
20.2 vs. 20.5 (Fair Value)

Nifty Midcap 100:
30.5 vs. 24.8 (Expensive)

Nifty Smallcap 100:
28.3 vs. 19.5 (High-Risk)

b. Small-Cap Distortion: Hundreds of small-cap stocks have fallen 50% from their highs, yet the index P/E remains dangerously high. Why? Small-cap leaders are owned by MFs, where SIP inflows are working as the “hydraulic lift,” while non-MF owned small-caps are getting wiped out.

c. Mid-Cap Danger: Current mid-cap P/E of 30.5 is dangerous because it is at a 50% premium to large-caps. Historically, this premium is closer to 20%. Stocks like BSE (P/E 52x) and Solar Industries (P/E 72x) are keeping the index level high.

d. Momentum Bias: AMFI data shows that Feb 2026 inflows into small-cap MFs jumped 32% and mid-cap funds jumped 26%. Even as both these segments are crashing, retail investors have doubled down. That’s the natural retail mentality to “buy the dip.” So, MFs currently have enough liquidity to maintain the price floor.

The Trap of Low-Float Mid-Caps

a. When MFs own over 70% of a mid-cap stock’s free float (current examples: Trent, Solar Ind, Mazagaon Dock), they are essentially trading with each other only.

b. Pact of Silence: If Fund A sells a low-float stock, the price drops, hurting the NAV of Fund B, C, and D (who all own the same stock.) This creates a “pact of silence” where no one sells because every MF’s performance is tied to the stock price staying high.

c. In this situation, if the SIP inflow slows down by even 20%, there are no other buyers. When the only reason a stock is rising is that an SIP is programmed to buy it every month, the absence of that SIP creates a liquidity vacuum. That’s when the stock suffers a vertical price drop.

d. MF managers don’t do value buying. They simply buy what others are buying. Every fund manager knows that survival means moving with the herd: succeed together and fail together. This “collective blindness” distorts price discovery, leads to abnormal P/E ratios, and creates systemic fragility.

Stress Test: Hypothetical Scenario (March 2026)

a. Assume that due to momentum exhaustion or some external factors, monthly SIP inflows drop 20% and there is a corresponding increase in MF redemptions too.

b. Going by the standard market models, every ₹1 of outflow in a low free-float mid-cap segment will lead to a ₹10 impact on the stock’s market cap. Based on this multiplier (1:10), the price of Mazagaon Dock will drop by 35%, Solar Ind by 42%, and Trent by 28% from their current levels (if SIP inflow drops 20%).

c. Forced Liquidation of Large Caps: If a small-cap or mid-cap fund faces redemptions, the manager needs cash today. But if his small or mid-cap stocks are hitting lower circuits, time is not on his side. He is forced to liquidate his large-cap winners (HDFC, Reliance, ICICI) to raise cash. There is always a buyer for these stocks.

Defensive Strategies: Rebalance Your Portfolio

a. Look for "boring" companies with a solid earnings growth trajectory, but whose stocks are down 50% because they were ignored by the smallcap and midcap funds (not protected by them).

b. Consider dividend stocks. They won’t fall beyond a point because dividend yield will create a price floor.

c. Consider companies where at least 75% of revenue is from exports. Domestic consumption is still broken. Plus, in a crash, the rupee may weaken further, providing support to exports.

d. Keep Dry Powder Ready: If the “hydraulic lift” of MF/SIP inflows breaks, quality stocks will become collateral damage. You want to be the guy buying diamonds at a clearance sale.

ENDQUOTE

"Liquidity is like oxygen. You don't notice it until it's gone. Then it's the only thing you notice." – Legendary Investor Stanley Druckenmiller

@arabicatrader

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@blitzkreigm PM Modi should visit every part of Mumbai

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

Bulls of indian stock market
Ghayal hoon isliye ghatak hoon!!
#Dhurandhar #Sensex #Nifty500

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

Badi #gambhir samasya hai!!! Losing test match with biggest margin ever for india.
Can we different coach for test matches pls!!

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@niveyshak Isnt world bank debarring them is an issue?
Lower circuit might be result of it

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

💙What a moment to cherish forever!
Our Women in Blue hv nt just won the World Cup they’ve won every Indian heart. The passion, the courage, the unshakable belief you’ve shown what dreams look like when chased with heart.Proud beyond words❤️#WomenInBlue #WorldChampions #TeamIndia

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@VodafoneIN my dad is travelling international,had activated international roaming on his postpaid no but his incoming & outgoing call is not working.I have already complain but no solution yet. Kindly resolve it asap or else you lose one more loyal customer

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@VishalBhargava5 Take 1 night stay at same venue as you will not be able to reach back home after shooting the episode. Bhiwandi has worst traffic situation in the country and due to poor infra, real estate is cheap!!

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

#faberindia when will you start resolving issue? Stop cooking stories on email. Mr rahul from mumbai service center was suppose to send dinesh technician to resolve the issue but he is yet to visit. Feels like we have been cheated by sales guy, installtion guy & after sales team

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

Facing problem with #fabergasstove since last 3 days but no one from faber india visited our home to resolve the issue, hv written multiple email to faber team but they have std reply that they hv given top priority to resolve it. Worst after sales service ever

[Pankit Gada @pankit_gada]

@8Sapience Wabag and vprpl both have same company detail. I think copy paste has gone wrong