Thomas Parg

Doing my best to be on the right side of the market.
Playing the imperfect game since 2020.
Higher time frame trading.
BTC - SPX - NDX.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

Just how bad were 2024 and 2025 for the #altcoin market compared to the 2020–2021 bull market? In short, they were absolutely awful—and this data can’t be ignored.

This is the "OTHERS" chart on TradingView (crypto total market cap excluding the top 10). In the last cycle, altcoins topped out at 36X (+3606%). This cycle, they topped out at just 1X (111%)!!

In my opinion, this marks a historical turning point for the #crypto altcoin market. The usual rotations and #altseason from the last two cycles that we all got used to are no more. As I’ve said many times before, crypto needs to grow up and start delivering ACTUAL VALUE IN THE REAL WORLD if it wants to survive and thrive long-term. Relying on hopium, memes, and pump-and-dump projects isn’t sustainable—and the current cycle proved it.

Is the altcoin market dead and not coming back? No.
I believe crypto will develop its own Magnificent 7 (or Mag 5) projects, similar to the US stock market, which will dominate cryptos future. Time will tell which projects they’ll be. The rest will be laggards like most stocks in the S&P500 or the small-cap Russell2000 index. So if you’re still wasting time "diamond handing" garbage, maybe it’s finally time to reevaluate the situation and move on.

Could I be wrong about all this, and QE and the possibility of "helicopter money" change everything (like in 2020), sending the entire altcoin market to new all-time highs? Possible, but highly unlikely from my point of view.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

@itsme_urstruly This is your vibe in two weeks when you switch off all media, including social media.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

@benjamincowen One of the best out there!

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

And we’re back under the line in the sand for bitcoin:native. Thought it would hold better, to be honest. It looks like 98% of the #crypto sector is in no-man’s-land, not really finding its place in this new AI, memory, and robotics-oriented market. But the cream will rise to the top sooner or later, and crypto will have its shining stars, just like the stock market.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

This looks better. We have a clear bull/bear line in the sand for $Bitcoin going forward. (weekly chart)

[Dr. Alex Wissner-Gross @alexwg]

FAANG was the Internet era.

MAGNA MOBSTA is the AI era's Innermost Loop:

Microsoft
Apple
Google
Nvidia
Amazon

Meta
OpenAI
Broadcom
SpaceX
Tesla
Anthropic

The 11 companies closest to the recursive core of compute, AI, chips, cloud, devices, autonomy, and space. Needs an ETF ticker.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

It's hard enough to predict these markets one week into the future, let alone 7 years. A good lesson for all the technical traders out there, new and old. As for myself, because these markets have become so irrational and hard to trade (at least for me), after 6 years it's time to move on to automated, rules-based bot trading.

#SPX #stocks #trading #stockmarket #btc #crytpto

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

@aiedge_ And robotics.

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Great chart on bull and bear markets from Charles Schwab.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

Interesting to see how many #crypto OGs still can't drop their bearish biases. I added the Nasdaq 100 chart and asked a question: Is this a good time to be bearish on risk-on assets? I don't think so.
$Bitcoin is still hovering above my line in the sand. Hasn't really done much compared to stocks. But at least for me, this is not the time to go heavy on the shorts. Even if there is a pullback, I doubt it will be a deep one.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

So far so good for $Bitcoin. Key resistance levels going forward:
0.5 Fib at 78,935
80,000
0.618 Fib at 83,420
Yearly open at 87,493
The US stock market couldn't be any more bullish, so if #BTC wants to push higher, now is the time to do it.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

@NaomiSeibt I see elderly people searching trash bins for empty bottles here in Estonia as well. The pension they get after working their entire lives is a joke.

[Joe Rogan Podcast News @joeroganhq]

Look at how happy they were back then.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

So far so good for $Bitcoin. Key resistance levels going forward:
0.5 Fib at 78,935
80,000
0.618 Fib at 83,420
Yearly open at 87,493
The US stock market couldn't be any more bullish, so if #BTC wants to push higher, now is the time to do it.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

$Bitcoin is very close to clearing my line in the sand to the upside. The price for that is 73,794. Once it does that, I'm looking for longs in crypto. Everything from the US stock indices side is showing a green light for risk-on assets. But my gut feeling is telling me that this dump ain't over.
#BTC #stocks

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

$Bitcoin is very close to clearing my line in the sand to the upside. The price for that is 73,794. Once it does that, I'm looking for longs in crypto. Everything from the US stock indices side is showing a green light for risk-on assets. But my gut feeling is telling me that this dump ain't over.
#BTC #stocks

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

This looks better. We have a clear bull/bear line in the sand for $Bitcoin going forward. (weekly chart)

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

Global markets and crypto overview. Strong green across the board following the two-week ceasefire
news from Trump.

#stocks #crypto #gold #silver #XLK #MAG7 #SPX #EU50 #nasdaq #nikkei225 #uk100 #BTC #ETH

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

Last bear flag took 69 days to play out. The current one has been forming for 62 days. The boring phase will likely be over soon for $Bitcoin #BTC.

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

Global markets overview — Friday before US market open. Red across the board again.

#stocks #crypto #gold #silver #XLK #MAG7 #SPX #EU50 #nasdaq #nikkei225 #uk100

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

This looks better. We have a clear bull/bear line in the sand for $Bitcoin going forward. (weekly chart)

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

The key support/resistance level for $Bitcoin in this bear market (weekly chart).

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

Some signs of a global markets bounce, with crypto majors leading the way. The S&P 500 , Nasdaq 100 and gold are still in the red zone on both the daily and 4-hour charts.
#stocks #crypto #gold #silver #XLK #MAG7 #SPX #EU50 #nasdaq

[Thomas Parg @PargThomas]

@HumanityChad Coolest thing I've seen in a while!

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

“About once every two years the market falls 10%. Every six years the market’s going to have a 25% decline. That’s all you need to know. You need to know that the market’s going to go down sometimes. If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks.” – Peter Lynch