Passive Trader

Auditor / CPA | MBA | Data Analytics | Finance Transformation | Former Big 4 Accounting | Entrepreneur | Trader

[EliteOptionsTrader @EliteOptions2]

A small loss only turns into a big one because of your ego.

Most big losses started with the same thought.

"It'll come back."
"I can't end the day red."

Sometimes the best move is accepting you were wrong.

[Passive Trader @passivetrader9]

@Dividend_Dollar In which world is it being ignored? It has the largest market cap ….one of the best returns over the past 25 years…what else does it need to do? It can’t just keep going up 5% every day

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

This is interesting:

The $MAGS Magnificent 7 etf the last couple days made a fresh 28 month low relative to $QQQ.

Is this a case of the rubber band getting a bit too stretched soon?

[Barchart @Barchart]

Gold $GLD on the brink of a Death Cross ☠️ for the first time since October 2023 🤯

[Passive Trader @passivetrader9]

@Mr_Derivatives @JT07916725 Right - instead of being a douche,Joe could’ve just kept it courteous.

[Passive Trader @passivetrader9]

@Mr_Derivatives To each their own - there are perma bears and perma bulls. Broken clock is right twice a day.

Joe K was outright disrespectful - he could’ve had a conversation but he appeared to be on full on attack mode. CNBC does look scripted at times.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Overtrading happens eventually with all-day chart watching. Too much screen time creates endless temptations.

Most traders want more willpower when they really need less stimulation. The easiest path to discipline is changing your environment.

Not being glued to the market all day is itself a real edge for most trading systems.

[OddStats @OddStats]

QQQ

▪ July
▪ After the 8 most recent Red Junes
▪ You know, just in case

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Most people do not realize how many tech giants are already deep bear market territory.

Tech Stocks From Record Highs:

1. Coinbase, $COIN: -69%
2. Oracle, $ORCL: -57%
3. Salesforce, $CRM: -57%
4. ServiceNow, $NOW: -56%
5. Netflix, $NFLX: -48%
6. Palantir, $PLTR: -48%
7. Microsoft, $MSFT: -37%
8. Meta, $META: -32%
9. Arm Holdings, $ARM: -27%
10. Broadcom, $AVGO: -26%
11. Marvell Technology, $MRVL: -20%
12. Nvidia, $NVDA: -19%
13. Amazon, $AMZN: -19%
14. Alphabet, $GOOGL: -17%
15. CrowdStrike, $CRWD: -15%
16. Apple, $AAPL: -14%
17. Taiwan Semiconductor, $TSM: -12%

The S&P 500 won't tell you this.

[Adam Mancini @AdamMancini4]

After a pure chop day in #ES_F, overnight traders finally spoiled with vol. As always, I only trade vol, I do not trade chop. Per newsletter, the Failed Breakdown of 7427 triggered long, and we are +20

Plan today: 7427=support (weak now). 7462, 7472 above. bears control<7509

[Passive Trader @passivetrader9]

@satymahajan HFD brother

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

Big CEO paydays don't bother me.

Stocks that underperform do.

[Saty @satymahajan]

Trading slows down considerably once you are right-sized for risk. It is very hard to become profitable (and keep it) with random and/or oversized positions.

Build good habits and it will translate as you naturally size up. Consistency first.

[Prof. Shamika Ravi @ShamikaRavi]

Prof Aswath Damodaran on AI bubble and why the correction would be unlike anything before.

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

dot-com bubble vs. a possible AI bubble.

From the famous "Dean of Valuation", Professor Aswath Damodaran, of NYU Stern School of Business,

“And that’s the real big difference between the dot-com boom and bust and the AI boom. We don’t know whether there’ll be a bust. History suggests there will be a bust.

The dot-com boom and bust had no huge capital expenditure in that cycle. In fact, there was very little traditional CapEx, or even R&D, driving it. People started apps. They basically started going on it.

This has been the biggest infrastructure run-up I think I’ve ever seen in business. You can go back and compare it to the automobile business 100 years ago. The amount of money that’s being put into AI CapEx is immense, which means that when the correction comes, the pain will be more intense.

And herein lies the second problem. The dot-com boom and bust was almost entirely equity-funded. You think, so what? Well, when the bust came, those shareholders lost 60%, 70%, 80%, or 90% of their money. You felt sorry for them, but the loss was restricted to the shareholders.

The problem with the AI CapEx boom is that not only is it immense, but a big chunk of it is funded with debt, and the debt is coming from private capital rather than banks. There’s a very real chance that if there’s a correction and companies start having problems, that problem is going to show up as distress and default, and that really doesn’t stay restricted. It spills over into the rest of society.

I’m not saying it’s going to be 2008, but 2008 is an example of what happens when lenders overreach, when they lend money at too low a rate, and the correction comes. The pain spills over.

So that is my concern with this big market illusion: the potential societal cost of having to deal with debt coming due that you’re unable to pay. It’s much more painful than your share price dropping 90% and you feeling the pain."

----

From "Excess Returns" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

[Passive Trader @passivetrader9]

@PerceptivTrader Various - overall account value, win rate, expected vs actual trade duration, return against risk

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

From 1980 to 2014, a JP Morgan study found:

▪️ 40% of stocks lose money
▪️ 64% of stocks underperform
▪️ ~7% of stocks accounted for nearly ALL of the gains

One reason indexing investing works so well is all of this chaos is invisible

[Cheapie13 @Cheapie13]

Well it’s about that time

[ABC News @ABC]

Fewer than 49% of Americans can afford healthcare, the lowest rate since tracking began in 2021, according to Gallup data released Thursday. https://t.co/U0BQq4QXtA

[Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi]

Warren Buffett:

How to tell the difference between a great, good, and gruesome business