Today the 2-year note yield declined 61 bps. This was the biggest one-day decline since Oct 1, 1982 (the first discount rate cut following the Sept 1981 all-time peak in yields).
To emphasize, today's decline in the 2-year was larger than any one day seen during the 2007 - 2009 financial crisis, following 9/11 ,and the 1987 stock market crash.
If markets signal ... what is the 2-year telling us???
US banks have roughly $620bn of unrealised losses. Their overall equity is $2.2tn. That is 28% of equity & includes banks like JPM or Citi where the ratio is much lower. For many smaller banks the ratio is close to 50%. So if a run were to occur they will be near dead like SVB!
The 2-year is down 44 bps over the last two days (since Wed's close).
Only four other days in the last 40 years have seen larger two-day moves.
Oct 20, 1987 = the day after the largest stock market crash in history (-22%, Oct 19, 1987)
Sept 14, 2001 = two days after the 9/11 terror attack
Sept 15, 2008 = the day Lehman failed
Sept 29, 2008 = two days after the failed TARP vote.
These are all epically important days in market history.
Is today really in their league?