Just some Geopolitics Nerd

Security Nerd - Russia/NATO. Currently focusing Terrorism & Mercenaries

[Critical Threats @criticalthreats]

NEW | Benin is working to increase counterinsurgency coordination with its neighbors, including joint operations with Nigeria and diplomatic efforts to repair frayed ties with Alliance of Sahel States members Burkina Faso and Niger. 1/5

[Brant @BrantPhilip_]

The United States donated $2.3 million worth of military equipment to the ruling junta in Niger, the US is steadily rebuilding its influence and posture with the states surrounding the Lake Chad (Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger and Chad), and consequently surrounding the Islamic State's strongest province: ISWAP.

[Phil Gurski @borealissaves]

Libyan Weapons Fueling Extremist Groups in Nigeria and Sahel #terrorism https://t.co/T3ns4hRRhs

[Lawfare @lawfare]

Where returnees face humanitarian shortfalls, armed groups see opportunities, write Liya Khan and @mines_andrew. https://t.co/Q9RWqKEQrD

[Mahfil @mahfildijital]

🔴 Gazeteci Wassim Nasr:

Malili muhaliflerin ele geçirdiği Kidal şehri, potansiyel olarak İdlib'in Suriye'de oynadığı role benzer bir rol oynayabilir.

Kidal'i yönetim uygulamaları için bir test sahası ve dış dünya için bir vitrin olarak kullanacaklardır.

Bu uzak çöl şehrinin kazanabileceği siyasi önemin tamamen farkında olan Bamako (cunta rejimi) ve Rusya, şehrin altyapısını ve binalarını havadan bombalamaya devam ediyor.

[Jacob Boswall @Boswall_Jacob]

The new territorial map of #Mali shows how #JNIM and the FLA have consolidated their presence in the northern Kidal Region, and some parts of Gao and Timbuktu regions 1/4

[War Mapper @War_Mapper]

It can feel like bases in Mali are captured by insurgents fairly regularly, but very little progress is made overall.
Here's why that is👇

[Lawfare @lawfare]

With multiple jihadist groups gaining ground in West Africa, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin’s offensive in Mali could be just the beginning, warns @CSIS’ Alexander Palmer.

[D.Radka, #NAFO 🇨🇿🤝🇺🇦 @DakdaR22]

🇺🇦Ukraine is increasing pressure🫡🙌

Russia’s offensive in the Donbas is showing less momentum, while Ukraine is increasing pressure through drone warfare and localized counterattacks.
Recent Ukrainian advances near Komar demonstrate Kyiv’s ability to exploit terrain, disrupt Russian logistics, and regain previously lost positions.

Fingers crossed

[CTC at West Point @CTCWP]

May Feature Article: “Developments in the Sahel: An Interview with Wassim Nasr, Journalist, France24; Senior Research Fellow, Soufan Center” by Don Rassler and Kristina Hummel https://t.co/glyInunbEw
@SimNasr

[Critical Threats @criticalthreats]

NEW | Amhara ethno-nationalist Fano militias have sustained offensives across northern Ethiopia’s Amhara region since March 2026, disrupting the federal government’s efforts to organize upcoming June 1 federal elections in affected areas.

Fano’s offensives could also be constraining any federal government plans to respond to the TPLF’s power grab in the neighboring Tigray region. 🧵⬇️

[Middle East Institute @MiddleEastInst]

"Hezbollah is not a resistance movement, and it is not just an Iranian proxy. It is an occupation of Lebanon," MEI Senior Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar (@dr_nickfn) tells @BBCBreaking.

Watch the full interview below.

[C/O Futures, LLC @CO_Futures_LLC]

Lisa J. Campbell, C/O Futures Senior Associate: "Drones in the African Battlespaces." C/O Futures Book Review. 22 May 2026, https://t.co/7jxcZXP3oi

[War Studies @warstudies]

Has #terrorism turned into something that can be outsourced?
Prof Peter Neumann says we are now entering an era of “terrorism as a service”. He questions whether “radicalisation” still applies when people are simply paid.
🔗https://t.co/xqvzkW194n

[Nadwa Dawsari @Ndawsari]

#Houthis have faced persistent tribal resistance in Aljawf & AlBayda since 2015. Despite military campaigns, coercion, heavy mobilization efforts, & cooperation attempts, the group continues to struggle to fully consolidate control in both governorates.

[James Barnett @jh_barnett]

Big news, not entirely out of the blue

I don't think, contra Brant, we can definitely say al-Mainoki was just no. 2 of ISWAP

The UN assessed al-Mainoki possibly elevated to IS global shura, and I'd heard he might be GDP head. It's plausible, tho def not confirmed...

(1/5 ..)

[Paweł Wójcik 🦋 @SaladinAlDronni]

Tinariwening this morning again, new stuff released recently. They have a knack for this. Amid all slop, good to take care of true culture works.

[Small Wars Journal @smallwars]

"Delegated Violence: Jihadist Organizations and the Strategic Logic of Small Wars"

Sami Daoud (@NantesUniv) explores how jihadist organizations evolved from insurgent movements into functional instruments of indirect state power.

https://t.co/c2Ysyrx97L #SWJEssay @UN_OCT @StateDeptCT

[Brant @BrantPhilip_]

🤓

[Harold Chambers @chambersharold8]

After closing the I'lam Foundation, Islamic State translators have struggled to return en masse. This year, they aim to do so.

Resurgent languages lead the way, with translators from new regions also growing quickly.

My latest for @MilitantWire:

https://t.co/EPGoSFTfLt