Patrick Flynn

Senior Data Journalist @focaldataHQ. Also on 🦋. (he/him) 🏳️‍🌈 [email protected]

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.

The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.

On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Expecting Lula to get ~64 million votes once the count is over. His margin of victory will be around double what it was in 2022, at ~4.4 million votes. A remarkable few weeks.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

‼️ We've reached the crossover in counted votes, and I'm confident enough to call the election.

Lula will be RE-ELECTED as president of Brazil (>99% chance).

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

🚨 Getting very close to calling it now. Lula remains at 51.4%, and up to a *99%* chance of winning in this live model.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:23 BRT, 3.2% counted

Lula 52.1% (95% CI: 48.6-55.6)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.9% (44.4-51.4)

Lula wins: 88%
Count so far: Lula 51.3%, Flávio 48.7%

#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Lula's advance looks more like vote switching than a turnout effect. Turnout *is* up, but has actually risen more in Bolsonaro areas.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

@a_darling_tom I managed to update it this evening with about 5 mins before votes closed - wasn't planning on running it tonight, so didn't publish it live.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

A pretty remarkable turnaround if this holds.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:23 BRT, 3.2% counted

Lula 52.1% (95% CI: 48.6-55.6)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.9% (44.4-51.4)

Lula wins: 88%
Count so far: Lula 51.3%, Flávio 48.7%

#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:17 BRT, 2.2% counted

Lula 51.7% (95% CI: 47.9-55.5)
Flávio Bolsonaro 48.3% (44.5-52.1)

Lula wins: 83%
Count so far: Lula 51.7%, Flávio 48.3%

#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Quite shocked, but Lula clear favourite.

🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:10 BRT, 1.6% counted

Lula 52.7% (95% CI: 49.7-55.7)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.3% (44.3-50.3)

Count so far: Lula 52.1%, Flávio 47.9%

#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

PLEASE NOTE: Take this with an extreme pinch of salt - built v quickly, but

🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 1.5% counted

Lula 52.2% (95% CI: 48.7-55.6)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.8% (44.4-51.3)

Count so far: Lula 52.2%, Flávio 47.8%

#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Lula probably the favourite here now, but VERY early. Will post model updates shortly.

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

@SteveAkehurst On my way home atm - wasn’t planning to but this 2 hour extension means it may be possible!

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

Model has predicted it for 2 hours but I've seen enough: Bolsonaro will win 47-45. See you in 2 weeks.

🇧🇷 Brazil 1st round projection - 19:30 BRT, 81.5% counted

Lula 44.9% (95% CI: 44.6-45.2)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.2% (46.9-47.5)

#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro

[Sam Freedman @Samfr]

New post:

We have exclusive new polling from @focaldataHQ - looking at how views of AI are developing and how it's affecting voting.

They look at why the US debate is so much more polarised by party than here - and whether we could go the same way.

https://t.co/toV0L5HB1Q

[Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl]

@LaurenFedor @politico Congrats!