Patrick Schneider

Macroeconomist, Assistant Professor at Imperial Business School

Formerly @LSE, @bankofengland, @Uniofoxford, & @UNSW

[Gabriel Leite Mariante @LeiteMariante]

Thrilled to see my study on cash transfers and women's employment featuring in @vox_dev!

In the paper, I show that Bolsa Família, Brazil's main transfer programme, increases mother's employment, and the effect is complemented by better local services👇

https://t.co/CAEjCuG5IF

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

@mattnomics In their culture it means they don’t have to wash up

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

@JosephNWalker @John_Hempton Really great episode, thanks!

You might find this interesting, on competition for the consumer AI market in the uk

https://t.co/NltuQL0n62

[Peter John Lambert @pj_lambert]

Who pays for AI? In a new working paper, we study this using banking data covering billions of transactions to see who pays for tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc. We find that 1-in-20 UK adults now pay for AI, representing a $1.4 billion market annually. (1/N)

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

Who pays for AI? This was a lot of fun to work on with @pj_lambert and @Nik_Datta.

A couple of results I found particularly interesting... 1/N

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

Election swings look better as weather maps than dartboards.

e.g. here's 2024 Pres ->2026 House swing, relative to national average

Check out the interactive map at
https://t.co/YaiFvT7aZj

[Nikhil Datta @Nik_Datta]

New paper from Peter, @patricksecon and myself. Check out the website here: https://t.co/jAWaMCxFw8

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

Occupational exposure could be the main thing driving consumer subscriptions.

The cuts by age, income, gender, and region that we find get a lot weaker once controlling for occupation

3/N

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

Who pays for AI? This was a lot of fun to work on with @pj_lambert and @Nik_Datta.

A couple of results I found particularly interesting... 1/N

[Peter John Lambert @pj_lambert]

Who pays for AI? In a new working paper, we study this using banking data covering billions of transactions to see who pays for tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc. We find that 1-in-20 UK adults now pay for AI, representing a $1.4 billion market annually. (1/N)

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

The gender gap is narrowing: others have observed men seem to be more into AI than women. While we do see this in our data, we also see that the trend is slowing down.

The ratio of male to female first-time adopters dropped from over 3 in 2023 to 1 in this year

2/N

[Peter John Lambert @pj_lambert]

Who pays for AI? In a new working paper, we study this using banking data covering billions of transactions to see who pays for tools like ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, etc. We find that 1-in-20 UK adults now pay for AI, representing a $1.4 billion market annually. (1/N)

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

@arindube All the way back to LBJ

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

Another exhibit of AI driving the cost of public goods below the private benefit to the maker

[Arin Dube @arindube]

Built my dashboard for the evening ... Starting from my model predictions (based on polls) as priors, it will update and rerun the model as county level returns start coming in, based on a factor-model for polling error. Also reports updated betting market numbers all under one roof. [Did a simulation of the 2022 evening, seemed to work pretty well.] I'll post some updates over the course of the evening, provided it doesn't crash out.

[Arin Dube @arindube]

OK folks, here is my public dashboard. Those who want to follow it, here it is available for free!

https://t.co/SCiT8SnV7N

[Nikhil Datta @Nik_Datta]

1/ After three years processing 19 million planning applications and 120 terabytes of documents, @edoardo_badii, @AmritaKulka and I are releasing the first findings from our Housing Pipeline dataset.

Fewer distinct proposed homes. A much stronger rebound in 2025. 🧵

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

@HeracleanVision @gbrl_dick True enough. But there’s a tier of the food scene in London that’s dominated by fast casuals and chains that, in other places (pSydney eg), has good quality and variety

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

@gbrl_dick @HeracleanVision This is right. Everything in London is great if you can afford the top end of the curve. But the median of every curve is very...mid.

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

Are they useful though, or are we filibustering ourselves and each other? Does it matter? I like the things I've made, you might too 🤷‍♂️

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

It's pretty interesting how AI is reducing costs of this kind of thing - way more public goods become viable purely for their private benefit.

[Jason Furman @jasonfurman]

I asked Claude how much it would have taken to develop Econvitals pre-coding agents. It's answer: a team of about 50 people working for three years with a budget of $20 million.

Is this correct or too high? I'm not sure.

https://t.co/eu9k5HxEHo

[Patrick Schneider @patricksecon]

For my own part, I've made dashboards to help me quickly contextualise UK fiscal and monetary news:
- Fiscal space: https://t.co/zaKXLXQV9U
- Monetary space: https://t.co/1g5TblG4RR

[Adam Nash @adamnash]

Turns out that if everyone was paid the same, saved the same amount, made the same on their investments, and worked & lived the same amount of time…

… people 65+ would have 74% of the wealth.

Surprised? Welcome to Equal Land.

https://t.co/wqCd6ABowf