pat

providing commentary on the ups and downs of gambling

[pat @patvolkov]

Been running an advanced analytic model and doing Round Robins. Free money. $150 -> $3800

[pat @patvolkov]

+EV is rare on MGM for HRs

[+EV Dingers @EV_Dingers]

🤰💣 Players DUE for a DINGER

https://t.co/Io833PUwUn

Criteria:
1️⃣ Barrels > 0 (last 3 games)
2️⃣ Barrel % ≥ 50th percentile (season)
3️⃣ +Z-score (PA since last HR > median, in SDs)

🟢 Brighter = better metrics
🔵 Darker = Longer without HR

[pat @patvolkov]

@TheGardner20 @dutchylo It’s not. Actually one of the biggest.

[pat @patvolkov]

📈 Last 3 Days

6/1: +35.0U ✅

6/2: -0.25U ❌

6/3: -1.50U ❌

Net: +33.25U

[pat @patvolkov]

⚾️ MLB Alt Totals Card | 6/3

🎯 Main 4-Leg

🔥 Twins TT O5.5 (+155)
🔥 Royals/Reds O9.5 (+150)
🔥 Cubs TT O5.5 (+175)
🔥 Angels TT O5.5 (+155)

📊 Built from Ballpark Pal projections, contact quality, weather, bullpen usage, and recent form.

💰 Staking:

• $15 RR 2/4
• $10 RR 3/4
• $20 4-leg parlay

Total stake: $150

Looking for another profitable day. 🍀⚾️

[pat @patvolkov]

⚾️ MLB Alt Totals Card | 6/3

🎯 Main 4-Leg

🔥 Twins TT O5.5 (+155)
🔥 Royals/Reds O9.5 (+150)
🔥 Cubs TT O5.5 (+175)
🔥 Angels TT O5.5 (+155)

📊 Built from Ballpark Pal projections, contact quality, weather, bullpen usage, and recent form.

💰 Staking:

• $15 RR 2/4
• $10 RR 3/4
• $20 4-leg parlay

Total stake: $150

Looking for another profitable day. 🍀⚾️

[pat @patvolkov]

Results 📊

Finished 3/5.

✅ Brewers TT O4.5 (+110)
✅ Astros TT O5.5 (+165)
✅ COL/LAA O9.5 (+135)
❌ Rays TT O5.5 (+170)
❌ KC/CIN O10.5 (+155)

$150 risked → $130.78 returned.

Small loss on the day, but I still like the process.

Straights: +2.1U 📈

[pat @patvolkov]

🚨 Today’s MLB Alt Totals Card 🚨

⚾️ KC/CIN O10.5 (+155)
🔥 Best run environment on the slate
🏟️ Great American Ball Park + warm weather = crooked numbers

⚾️ COL/LAA O9.5 (+135)
💣 Highest HR projection of the day
📈 Sugano has been getting hit hard

⚾️ HOU TT O5.5 (+165)
🚀 Favorite team total on the board
🎯 Astros facing one of my top pitching attack spots

⚾️ TB TT O5.5 (+170)
💥 Flaherty allowing loud contact
📊 Rays bats keep showing up in the data

⚾️ MIL TT O4.5 (+110)
🍻 Pitcher attack spot
📈 Multiple Brewers grading well in EV/barrel metrics

💰 $10 RR 3/5
💰 $7.50 RR 4/5
💰 $12.50 Parlay

🎲 Total Risk: $150

🧠 Process:
🌤️ Weather + park factors for game totals
📊 Barrel rate, EV, and pitching data for team totals

[pat @patvolkov]

H+R+RBI card for tonight 📊⚾️

🎯 Yandy Diaz
🎯 Bobby Witt Jr.
🎯 William Contreras
🎯 Isaac Paredes
🎯 Jo Adell

Built around favorable game environments and pitcher matchups rather than HR upside alone.

💰 RR Staking:
• $3 on 3/5
• $2.50 on 4/5
• $7.50 on the parlay

Same process, different market. 🍀

[pat @patvolkov]

🚨 Today’s MLB Alt Totals Card 🚨

⚾️ KC/CIN O10.5 (+155)
🔥 Best run environment on the slate
🏟️ Great American Ball Park + warm weather = crooked numbers

⚾️ COL/LAA O9.5 (+135)
💣 Highest HR projection of the day
📈 Sugano has been getting hit hard

⚾️ HOU TT O5.5 (+165)
🚀 Favorite team total on the board
🎯 Astros facing one of my top pitching attack spots

⚾️ TB TT O5.5 (+170)
💥 Flaherty allowing loud contact
📊 Rays bats keep showing up in the data

⚾️ MIL TT O4.5 (+110)
🍻 Pitcher attack spot
📈 Multiple Brewers grading well in EV/barrel metrics

💰 $10 RR 3/5
💰 $7.50 RR 4/5
💰 $12.50 Parlay

🎲 Total Risk: $150

🧠 Process:
🌤️ Weather + park factors for game totals
📊 Barrel rate, EV, and pitching data for team totals

[pat @patvolkov]

@FOOL_NELSON Yeah wtf was that call

[pat @patvolkov]

@OutlawParlays Was this the first day you took him?

[pat @patvolkov]

@zaylocksRus donation

[pat @patvolkov]

@_onlyscott Fábio Coentrão

[pat @patvolkov]

@EV_Dingers same it cashed a 3/5 round robin for me

[pat @patvolkov]

@AvrgLakerFan He won’t. I laddered his points up to 35.

[pat @patvolkov]

Man City, thank you for paying for Mother’s Day.

[pat @patvolkov]

Schwarber, Harper, Garcia couldn’t get it done in the bottom of the 9th. Don’t sell Phillies.

[pat @patvolkov]

@OutlawParlays I’m also data engineer at fortune 10 company btw, saw your bio

[pat @patvolkov]

@R_mad74 @statfax yes, a laser is >110 mph

[pat @patvolkov]

@WhiteHouse -5k for me. Why is essentially every deduction, credit, and other benefit only available to the poor. Max HSA, Max 401k, Max SALT Cap deduction, mortgage interest, charitable donations and I still owe. If your AGI is over 250k you’re basically paying for welfare and Israel.