Paul Gennett

carpe’n those diems! Interested in the business, tech, and policy of space

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

I have not been able to locate a Firefly investor presentation but I am looking forward to adding $FLY when I do! Curious what investors are projecting for an $8B valuation…

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@christiantfong Super interesting. Is a potential narrative then that market-wide COE declined greatly since the 1980’s but regulated ROE did not fall in kind, increasing utilities’ equity value/valuations? Interesting policy implications if true, could index ROE to COE

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@christiantfong Historically, has the spread between regulated ROE and COE shifted? If so, is this spread correlated with this graph?

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

Check out the full post here: https://t.co/LNvgGPUmId
TLDR: AI will supercharge demand for human labor, and claims to the contrary are marketing rather than truth. Both economic principle and numerous past examples prove this. Curious to hear your thoughts!

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

There’s been a lot of chatter about Jevon’s Paradox, but little discussion of the crazy unique period of history (the Industrial Revolution) that spawned it. I read all 168 pages of Jevons’ 1865 book to better understand it, and the implications for AI and labor are fascinating…

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@lymanstoneky Jevons

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@JackKuhr I always wondered the ~n on those polls

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@JackKuhr This seems valid. If they are to further prioritize internal vs customer, I wonder if and when antitrust becomes an issue

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@ZoharAtkins I will say I'm currently reading The Coal Question, and what we now know as Jevons Paradox (his Ch. 7) is a relatively minor aspect of a far-ranging work on industrialization, human development, and British hegemony; Jevons establishes/defends the paradox in 1 chapter of 18

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@JackKuhr Surprised by the 1% pushback to Starship noise/pollution… if Starship is actually launching daily burning 1000+ tons of methane per flight, it could easily become a political lightning rod under a left-wing administration, especially given its ownership…

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@KenKirtland17 Difficult to hate SLS/Orion enough.. “deep space” hardware to nowhere

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

Astra today announced they are pitching Rocket 4 as a target for missile defense intercept tests… This tracks, looking more and more like there are two routes for small-lift, missile defense (ABL/Long Wall, Astra), and medium/heavy-lift (Rocket Lab, Firefly, Relativity).

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@RCScience @SciGuySpace “No longer are politics or funding the real hurdles” aged well

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@LionnetPierre @SciGuySpace Agreed. One caveat: most in 2020 assumed starship would race to orbit rather than focus on suborbital flights to test reentry mechanics. If you were to ask those who took the 2020 poll, I’d guess many would count IFT-3 (Mar ‘24) as “orbital flight” for the purpose of this poll

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@JackKuhr What does NASA get out of ISS/CLD that it couldn’t get from crewed or unscrewed free-flying missions (Varda, Dragon/Starship, future lunar tugs, others) and a robust moon base? Many detractors claim ISS research to be ~worthless, maybe that $2-4B is better spent elsewhere

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@SciGuySpace Now do Orion

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@SciGuySpace Let’s remember that ULA paid Jim almost $1M in 2025

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@sdamico Obviously it’s to combine the European primes into one nimble and innovative SpaceX competitor

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

@Lori_Garver What do you think his chances are of being confirmed?

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

(5/5) My personal favorite section is in his draft first day speech. I agree with this wholeheartedly, but this view is the polar opposite that most legislators take. This is an attack on congressional corruption that I doubt the Senate will allow. I hope he gets the job.

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

Project Athena thread! Trump has finally nominated Isaacman, but not before political opponents leaked his confidential NASA memo. After reviewing the memo, I see why this leak could hurt...

[Paul Gennett @paul_gennett_]

(4/5) Elsewhere in the memo, Isaacman attacks wasteful spending. Here, he writes "Cost Plus Contracts are prohibited without a waiver by the Administrator." Cost plus contracts are the life blood of SLS/Orion cost overruns... without cost plus, wasteful pork is on life support.