6/6 Whether that second stage produces a durable settlement is the open question. The full analysis of the method, and of the Board, is here https://t.co/o35zgvoeGn
1/6The US–Iran negotiations offer a current test of a sequence we examined in "From Agreements to Architecture": stabilisation first, comprehensive settlement deferred. A short thread.
https://t.co/o35zgvoeGn
5/6 The US–Iran talks fit the same pattern. The near-term measures under discussion concern stabilisation — reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing the naval blockade — while the nuclear question remains unresolved, and Trump himself has said he will not rush an agreement..
The group differs from competing frameworks—Franco-Saudi Initiative, Board of Peace—in structure and approach. But two structural challenges might limit its capacity to function beyond political signaling.
The Hague Group expanded from 9 to 40 states in 14 months. We examine what kind of coalition it is, how it differs from competing frameworks, and what structural deficits limit its capacity to function beyond political signaling
https://t.co/keVpkBgwYH