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December 4, 2025 Extended Cycle Thesis
(Update)
That's the day this went out. Back then, calling an extended cycle put you alone in the room. Everyone had the four year chart out, marking the top. The case was simple. A debt wall is coming that forces liquidity back into the system whether the Fed likes it or not, and Bitcoin is the most liquidity sensitive asset alive. It moves first and hardest.
That's @Michael Howell's read too, the man who's tracked global liquidity for 35 years and called the big turns. The debt wall forces the printer back on. This cycle doesn't top until liquidity tops. The four-year chart doesn't get a vote.
Watch what's happened since. Powell's term ended and Kevin Warsh took the Fed chair in May, the exact pivot I called. Inflation hit 4.2% this morning, almost all of it energy. And there's a bill in Congress to revalue the nation's gold and route it into a federal Bitcoin reserve. Gold parity is becoming policy, and it's closer than anyone thinks.
This isn't a bear. We're about half off the October high. Real bears bleed 80% and go quiet for years. This one's liquid and loud. When I recorded this, Saylor held around 650,000 Bitcoin. Today it's near 845,000, on pace for a million by year end. Last month he sold 32 coins to cover a dividend and the timeline lost it. That's 0.0038% of his stack. Then he bought 1,550 more.
And it isn't just him. Tether kept buying every quarter. Metaplanet stacked while deep underwater. El Salvador never sold a single coin and bought the dip. So ask yourself why every serious holder owns more than they did six months ago, right through the scariest stretch of the year. How obvious does it need to get?
The tariff checks I called for got knocked sideways when the Supreme Court struck the tariffs funding them. The debt wall never needed them anyway.
So we did the boring thing. Kept large bags of USDC dry and DCA'd through the months. Conviction over panic.
Could it slide further from here? Of course. Probably one more nasty flush left in it. But timing the exact day is a loser's game. The cycle is the only clock that matters. So if it bleeds lower, that's just more dip to buy.
The peak comes when liquidity peaks, and we're nowhere near it.
The cycle isn't over. It's barely lit
It's Calm 👁️
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EnTu4xYmd49b6drs6FwTodxcJW1sHFurbvueyk9Kpump
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The time is NOW. Lock in 👁️https://t.co/s0xa4KG2X8
They have to print. Keep that front and center.
Governmental debt and the AI race both end the same way. Printing bigger than covid. You're looking at over 10 to 12 trillion. Whatever gets deemed necessary goes parabolic this time. More violent than anything you saw in 2021, because the dollar is even more debased now.
So you stay on offense. Keep your liquidity in your vault ready to deploy, because those flash dumps will happen and open up opportunity. That's them liquidating weak hands. They have no choice. Time is not on their side, and it keeps building day by day. How long can these assets stay low? The jig is up.
But what you buy matters. Can't skip over that part. AI. SoV. Metals. DeFi. Privacy. And a really strong brand always wins in the turbulence.
Extended Cycle Thesis premiered Dec 4th, 2025
@kisra_fistya This project has been proven to everyone that it’s dedicated to mission. Just bcuz the price is not where it’s supposed, doesn’t mean that it’s not going to get there. Fistya and is team are cracked devs that are not going to make any obstacles get there way.
6 months ago we mapped this out in the Extended Cycle. We just checked the math. It's worse.
Global debt then: $318 trillion.
Today: a record $348 trillion.
That's $30 trillion borrowed into existence in six months. The fastest build since COVID.
Nothing about the trap changed. $10 trillion in US debt still has to roll this year, so they can't raise rates without lighting the interest bill on fire. And they can't slow the economy either, not with China deploying more than half the world's industrial robots while America can't catch up.
So there's only one move left, and they make it every single time.
They print to stay in the race. Then they print to survive winning it.
We told you where this goes. The only update is the speed.