John MacArthur

Reframing the energy debate. Resilient transition, low carbon ventures, efficient AI, industrial decarbonisation. FREng FEI: Shell, ADNOC, OGCI, Imperial.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

More free to read here: https://t.co/tfyVQvtDaO

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Almost every solar panel on earth depends on quartz from one small town in North Carolina. In his superb book Material World, @EdConwaySky shows that Spruce Pine supplies the near-perfect quartz for the crucibles in which the world's silicon is grown.

It is the cheapest and most convenient source. Comparative advantage, which Ed explores in his new book Trade World, explains why. That is, until you notice that all the eggs are in one basket. Hormuz is one of many potential choke points in myriad supply chains.

Three things I took away from Material World and Trade World:
1. The energy transition is a rethink of industrial processes unchanged for 200 years.
2. Better products win, not worthier ones.
3. Trade adapts faster than policy.

Substack link below for four more insights.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Full commentary, free to read:
https://t.co/LAIdOemNIK

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Keele University buys half its power from an 8.2MW clean energy park at a price fixed for 25 years. No CfD, no subsidy. Jackdaw gas stops by 2037 on its own numbers, well before net zero 2050. The UK needs both affordable energy projects. The grown-up debate is timing and cost.

Not ideology. Arithmetic.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Are We on the Brink of Ending Aging? https://t.co/0YIsO1THhJ via @NatGeo

[John MacArthur @pecten]

@AndyBurnhamGM @JamesMelville I met Andy a few months ago in a hotel foyer when he was stretching after his morning run. I found him to be completely genuine. Glad to see his football top because Andy is a real Everton fan! We joked about that. Good luck to Andy.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Free Substack analysis here :
https://t.co/243lHCE8bG

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Energy companies must hold multiple scenarios at once, iterate each position against genuine risk analysis, and be open to the evidence as it arrives. That discipline is harder than either leading or following the energy transition. It is also the only approach that is resilient to the uncertainty involved.

Expanded insights on recent energy events include:

1. The same institutional investors backing Follow This also demand quarterly returns. The tension is not between ESG and profits. It is that transition investment is long-cycle capital in a short-cycle market.

2. Prudent scenario thinking is not a planning luxury. It separates strategies that survive a changing world. The unexpected is to be expected.

3. Energy transition leader or fast-follower are both risk positions. Both require an upside thesis and a pre-planned response to downside.

4. The right answer to “lead or follow?” is “it depends”: which country, which technology, which market, which regulatory environment, and the prevailing capital cycle.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Are you a Wizard or a Prophet? A wizard views growth and development as the lot and blessing of our species; prophets regard stability and preservation as our future and our goal. It is a false choice. We breach planetary boundaries, but Artemis shows us that even the dark side of the moon can be illuminated by our ingenuity. Those astronauts also tell us how precious Earth is. We do not have to take sides, it is not a tribal debate. You can care about nature and also believe in humanity.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

@sutton1012 Many people share your view Jim. We need to ensure energy is secure and affordable. Otherwise, a backlash will derail the electrification which will power AI and other growth. Cost transparency is key.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

The UK government announced an electricity market reform that successive governments have ducked for a decade. From next year, legacy low-carbon generators will be moved, voluntarily but under Treasury pressure, onto fixed-price contracts and off the gas-linked wholesale price. This covers roughly a third of UK power and was long overdue. It is one of three reforms required. The other two are: to synchronise renewables build-out with grid expansion delivery pace; and to diversify supply with firm, dispatchable low-carbon gas power+CCS generation alongside renewables, and small modular nuclear reactors. Read more below.

https://t.co/jVcVpdi1lt

[John MacArthur @pecten]

A third of global emissions comprises <2% per country so we small emitters make a big difference if we each do our bit. The UK emits 0.9% but historically we’re responsible for 4.5% so it seems a good deal that we fix less than 1%. It is also fair to say that 6 countries are responsible for over 2% each: US, China, India, Russia, Japan, and Iran. The UK also indirectly outsources our carbon by importing from those countries,~ 300-400 MTCO2e pa.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

@JustFoo97056889 @reformparty_uk @TiceRichard Let’s steer our way to affordable and secure energy and reframe that to gain cross-party support for prosperity and jobs. Net zero is not stupid but the pace and cost to get there must be responsible and resilient.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

@MarcusTindall We have too many people taking sides rather than using common sense. We can have affordable and clean energy if we are responsible and sensible. I hope my note is balanced and is fair on progress made.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

@Marco2555473581 Agreed, this is addressed in my linked note. We need affordable energy first. That is what drives electrification and AI growth. Paying millions for stranded wind energy in Scotland does not solve climate change, it harms support and stops electrification.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Read the full commentary: https://t.co/2G6XH0XDYv

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Powerful women embrace the squiggle. My research surveyed 215 women in energy across 37 nationalities. Eight years on, their answers still hold.

1. Mentoring and sponsorship came out as the number one need, statistically significantly ahead of everything else. Yet what had actually helped most women was building self-confidence, because they had to help themselves in the absence of structured support. Needs and provision still don't match.

2. The pipeline from technical entry to executive leadership remains broken at exactly the career stages where it matters most. Women drop from 18% at entry level to just 5% at executive level in technical roles. That is not a pipeline problem. It is a culture and sponsorship problem.

3. The energy transition is creating the chance to build new structures rather than reform old ones. Roles in grid digitalisation, carbon markets, hydrogen and renewables value the cross-sector experience and systems thinking that non-linear careers produce naturally. Your career squiggle is becoming a competitive advantage, not a liability.

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Full commentary: https://t.co/bkDGgCysqD

[John MacArthur @pecten]

The energy transition just got harder.
Three shifts:
1. Both subsidies gone simultaneously — cheap money and policy tailwinds
2. Direction unchanged — motivation has shifted to security first
3. Watch: does emergency spending start to crowd out transition capital?

[John MacArthur @pecten]

Capital is still flowing into the energy transition — but the motivation has fundamentally shifted. Security, resilience and industrial policy are now driving the agenda, not climate pledges alone.

New commentary: When the energy libretto changes.
https://t.co/HBGlcRPRDo