Pedro Schicchi

Agriculture research analyst. Opinions are my own.

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

Big shift in crop condition trend over the last two weeks. Some damage has already been done, but corn is looking a lot better overall

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

Conab increased Brazil's corn crop to by only 0.2Mt, while market was expecting +5Mt. I personally think the actual number is closer to ~127, but I think 130+ is a bit much, everyone got carried away with USDA posting higher and higher numbers

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

I fully agree that trend yield will not be achieved in the US, but in price terms I keep getting back to this chart.
Corn futures are already reflecting a tighter crop, ~10% stock/use. With curr demand and area, yield would have to drop to 172.7, I don't think it's that bad yet

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

Que gol do Marrocos

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

Testando algumas formas de visualização para o período crítica da safra de soja brasileria que se aproxima.

Nos próx 3 meses o Sul deverá ver chuvas consistentemente abaixo da média. A seca pode ser considerada de média a forte, já que a mínima (desde 2000) foi de -5mm/dia

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

@HeitorPaiv o cara ta tão famosos que tem até fake

[Pro Farmer @profarmer]

2022 National Corn & Soybean Production Estimates.

#pfnews #corn #soybeans

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

Production cost estimates published this month by #Conab show BR #soybean prod cost rising by almost 85% YoY (an overage), while forward export prices are up by "only" 8%. Although margins will still be attractive, this increased costs mean higher risks for farmers

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

@vmartinnss Thanks, @vmartinnss. But just to give proper credit, the timeline was actually developed by my teammate @SilbigerDavid!

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

NOPA results today, crush continues strong in the US.

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

@JaspervdKloof @vmartinnss As for the inverse correlation, there is some. But again, fundamentals are the main reason behind prices moving, the move on interest rates is secondary when fundamentals strongly point the other way

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

#WASDE: CBOT #soybeans are pricing a much tighter s/u than US balance sheet justifies

Further cuts to BR are due and this is likely to affect US. But, with interest rates rising in the US and China's import demand decreasing, there is a risk of downside that must be watched

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

@JaspervdKloof @vmartinnss When this happens, speculators can decide to sell their positions on riskier assets, such as ag futures, to put money on bonds. In turn, this selling pressure can make futures fall in the short term. However, fundamentals are still the main force behind prices moving up or down

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

@JaspervdKloof @vmartinnss it could add further selling pressure

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

@JaspervdKloof @vmartinnss it has little to do with soybean demand itself, but with rates rising, speculators now have better options to put their money (safer US govt. bonds) than the riskier commodities futures market

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

@vmartinnss Thanks @vmartinnss!

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

With such high oilshare in crush margin as we had been seeing everywhere, but particularly in Brazil + yesterday's news on the cut to the expected mandates, we could end up with an undersupplied meal market

#soybean #oatt

[Pedro Schicchi @pedro_schicchi]

the geography of #meat #trade around the globe.

Only US and Brazil have are among the top exporters of all 3 (#beef, #pork and #chicken)