Barry Judson

I've been following the weather pretty much all of my life. I will post upcoming weather for PEI and other interesting weather tidbits here. Yes I love snow!

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

The system moving through tonight may track further to our north. This would reduce the amount of snow for PEI. Tignish and West Prince areas may see a little more. Ten to 15 cms in those areas and 5 CMS for everyone else. Only 2 to 5 CMS of new snow left on ground after tonight.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Here are the updated snowfall estimates from the latest model runs.

Souris: 25-30 CMS
Montague: 25-30 CMS
Belfast: 25-30 CMS
Charlottetown: 30-35 CMS
Summerside: 35-40 CMS
Wellington: 25-30 CMS
Tignish: 25-30 CMS

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Just some thoughts on the storm coming. Current model runs have the following snow totals:
Souris: 10-15 cms
Montague: 10-15 CMS
Belfast: 15-20 CMS
Charlottetown: 20-25 CMS
Summerside: 30-35 CMS
Wellington: 30-40 CMS
Alberton: 35-40 CMS

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

How does that equate to amounts?

Souris: 20-25 CMS
Montague: 25-30 CMS
Belfast: 15-20 CMS
Charlottetown: 25-30 CMS
Summerside: 35-40+ CMS
Wellington: 35-40 CMS
Tignish: 30-35 CMS

Watch for some frz rain possibly mixing in.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

So we could get a bit of a surprise from this storm. Many forecasters use the 10:1 ratio for predicting projected snowfall, but for this storm using the Kuchera ratio formula we could get more. The Kuchera ratio range for this storm is 16/18:1 . That's quite a bit higher.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Winds will be gusting out of NE for all of PEI with gusts potentially reaching 80+ km/h. Barometric pressure could be down around 975 MB as the storm passes.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

I really think we have missed this storm snowfall but time will tell. For me looks like just trace snow for everyone but it will be breezy so watch out for that drifting snow.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Latest update for PEI, snow totals have increased. I'd say eastern PEI is in the 25-30 range and western PEI is a little less at 20 to 25 CMS. This boils down to how far north the system tracks. Parts of NS could see 40 CMS of snow. Any hope this changes to rain is unlikely.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

So the most recent model runs have shown a bit of a deviation in the track of the storm. Currently the projected track has taken a track more southerly, offering less snow. Let's say 10 to 15 for West Prince and 15 to 20 for everyone else. Still watching track changes.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

So you don't hear from me alot, but I just wanted to give my 2 cents. How much snow will we get? Looking at the latest model outputs, it looks like PEI could get from 20 to 30 CMS by Tuesday at lunchtime. Monday will be the start and snow totals could go up as Monday gets closer.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

So how windy is it going to get?? Windy, windy, windy! Peak winds tonight I'd say will be around midnight. Peak winds could be higher than we have seen for some time. Tie down anything that could blow away. Power outages are possible. Winds will be out of the south. No snow.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

As always nothing stays the same with weather models. Snow totals for eastern PEI are going up. Temperatures will be colder by current models meaning snow totals go up. More later.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Things have changed with tentatively more snow on Monday for the east. Waiting till the next model runs run. I'll have a better idea tomorrow, but for now, tomorrow looks like 5-10 CMS for the east. Lesser amounts as you go west.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Here is my two cents regarding the weather for Sunday and Monday. Sunday I'm guessing 5-10 CMS in the east with lesser amounts as you go west. Monday is an outlier but I really don't think there will be much. Maybe 2-5 CMS. Could see some drifting Monday.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Snow totals for much of PEI have gone down a little to about 25 cms with about 10 to 12 cms left on the ground with all said and done. The east will get the most. At least what the models say atm.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

So a system is moving in tomorrow evening with substantial snow. Temperatures will hover around one degree, so snow is forecast but any deviation could bring more rain and less snow. I'd say a 50% chance of it all being snow and if that happens 40 cm is possible for east.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Haha.....I would rather it have been tomorrow. Had a Charlottetown appt and Souris appt today :( .

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

How much will remain on the ground is questionable. The air temperature will be the deciding factor. I'll post to this thread with the next model run. Be prepared cause it could be substantial.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

So for the system moving through tomorrow, some areas of PEI will see gusts around 90 km/h with 25 mms of rain. I'm also watching a system for next week that could bring heavy rain and high winds. Too far way yet for that one.

[Barry Judson @peisnowguy]

Just so everyone knows, we are not out of the woods yet for PEI. The North Atlantic may heat up again. It is too early to say whether PEI could be at risk. I will continue to watch how things develop.