🐧

full time larp

[🐧 @pentosh1private]

Your Pride is on the Line. Can You Handle the Weekly Humiliation?

Forget the overall rank for a minute—that's for COWARDS. The TRUE TEST of a manager is a HEAD-TO-HEAD battle, where you get to spend the entire week talking trash, only to lose by a single point on Monday night.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

We've all had to top blast if we wanted entries in things. But I do believe there is a high probability that dip buyers finally get their shot in the near future. So the intent of this is to see *IF* given, where I'd like to take some trades. This is a shift from continually top blasting. To switching gears and looking for things to discount.

I have not made any bearish equity posts in a very very long time. Just bc in general it's extremely hard to be bearish equities when they have so many tailwinds.

Am I macro bearish? No. This is simply a, hey I think we finally are going to get a pullback so please don't read into it more than that

A few things I'm looking at that are raising a bit of a red flag for me short term.

These small doji's at the top end here followed by closing below. It's typically a pattern that gets me a little antsy in an uptrend like this bc at least from my experience a bit of downside tends to follow.

There's froth, and a lot of leverage. So a little panic to me would be a great buy. There are a few other small red flags that the market has largely ignored in part bc it's had to. Like the SPR/Iran, and various things affected by that which if it's not resolved asap. Will be consequential. There actually hasn't been a choice but to ignore those bc the right tail risk has been higher. Locally, i think the left tail risk is now slightly elevated.

In saying that. Again, I'd like to prepare for that scenario vs looking to chase for now. Just a switch in tactics. My plan is to mark out some levels I'd like to buy on various stocks and see if we get some fills on those. Vs chasing momentum here

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

kinda feel like we will get some pretty nice pullbacks in equities for the first time in history

i'll share a few things im looking at and for at least

hopefully the entries are given, i like the odds.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

https://t.co/azRsKK2cEE

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

He also said “I don’t know when. It could be 5 years, 10, or 20. But I know it will happen one day so I don’t plan to invest in it. At that point the SPX could drop from 20k to 16k and I’ll say. I told you so”

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

twaps up
fees up
circle buybacks (pending)

hyperliquid:native up (pending)

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

despite the trades i've posted, i've largely been under-allocated as well as a whole. Pains me to think of what it would be had I taken bigger swings but also just have to be happy with the outcomes of those trades and investments

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

Suggest reading this, and I myself will be farming the airdrop

This isn't a competitor to HL either, in many cases liq will even be sourced there so it can actually complement it. It's a completely different model that sources liq from cex's dex's and tradfi.

I have no affiliation with them or anything, but saw the recent funding round, did some research, and believe the airdrop will be pretty decent. It is invite only. You get paid to try things.

https://t.co/QwOPUclIFW

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

One thing that is difficult is, some of these charts never dip. They just go 20x without a pullback. and you think there's no way this shit co is going to go up today. then it does. you wait for a dip that doesn't come. it might dip 3-5%. maybe. i've been sidelined on many trades too fwiw. just to watch it go in a straight line to infinity. i typically dont chase things so much and that also costs a lot. even in crypto i dont remember charts like some of these have bc at least we had 20-30% pullbacks in the uptrends lmao

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

If i've made a bad trade, i've made sure to point it out too. like hims was awful. vs just selecting the good ones. The difference is that when I've made a bad trade, I've tried to identify it quickly and cut it, while letting runners win and/or adding to them.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

Recent positions and losses.

$BB: 5.79 current 9.76
$USAR: $17 current 30.32
$UUUU: cut this around BE
$DGXX: $8 avg now current 8.33
$HYPE: average has moved up a lot $42 current $73
$HIMS was cut after earnings at a loss
$Peng: $37 current 72. Sold $44 😭

In a few sub 1B caps but don’t really feel comfortable sharing those due to market cap.

And in a lot of others but mostly for very short term trades. Days. Week. . Like some high profile momentum plays. I probably only share 10% of what I do. Most I don’t share bc there’s just been big moves and think if you don’t know how to trade them the risk is quite high chasing late.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

There are trades to be had with recent 13f filings we’ve seen but they just get so crowded that it’s uncomfortable to share bc of the initial vol etc. but there are great short term plays out there if you’re quick

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

the fact that you can just yeet into a stock bc someone said "the saudi's are bidding" as their FA and then be up 10% in 2 hours is pretty crazy. let's just agree to enjoy it while it lasts, for however long that is.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

every day is the same as the last

asian stocks limit up, US stocks hit new all time highs, trump says Iran wants a deal so badly, the dumbest person you know is up another 10x on some "bottleneck" stock that his LLM told him to buy

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

$BB Im not a seller anywhere at least for the next year or two unless something crazy happens, but am a dip buyer. Last add was at $8 on top of the $5.79 buys as shared, and I will just continue to look for places to add a little more.

If we see a broader sell off in the market this month, then that will be the time for me. It's fun to watch, but outside of that not taking any actions.

I expect that a lot of people will have borrowed conviction and at various times that will get tested. But I'm more focused on what the company is becoming, and where that road leads vs a quick flip. I am saying this while price is up. I never advise chasing price either fwiw. And just look for good places to deploy along the way with enough patience on each end of the PA

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

I don't net short with leverage. Nothing against people who do it well, and there are some that do and are very talented. It's just not my strength and not my style. If I'm bearish I go to cash, or hedge spot a little bit. You will see me disappear during those times bc I'm just not trading.

The math is why. Longs can go to infinity, they are uncapped on upside where as shorts are capped. Essentially best case it goes to 0 and you make a 2x.

SNDK did 60x or so in the past year. 50% fall pays you 50% whether you nailed a parabolic top or shorted something like ETH which has already been cut in half if it fell in half now. The short doesn't care how extended the move was. People who've been trying to call tops with levered shorts, well, it's typically an ego thing. More often than not. it's better to short the thing that has been performing like crap anyways. idk what the obsession is with shorting strength repeatedly

Then in equities you have other things that go against you. It's carry. Shorts bleed, you pay the borrow, pay the dividend, fighting stock buybacks, inflation, etc. The timing has to be pretty precise. And then there are naked shorts, where you end up shorting something and end up losing 3-4x the amount you invested. Short MU at $250, it goes to 1k. It happens all the time.

It is so much better to just have a few good plays, and then every once in awhile you find a high conviction bet to really just push to the max. Even for me, most trades I take are pretty consistent, and once a year I hit a trade that makes up like 70% of my years gains bc I knew it was the one. But that's just my style.

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

Another Friday night after market hours escalation before another Sunday night and Monday morning peace deal

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

hyperliquid:native has now surpassed $8 billion in USDC

That's a lot of future yield from the circle deal in regards to AQAv2 for the AF buybacks.

That's potentially an additional 700k+ per day in future buybacks coming on top of what it's doing today. Assuming no further growth.

Big dips if given, are for adding to the winners

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

" $HYPE token is used to facilitate purchases where fiat is not available or accessible and is used for loyalty programs. Over time hype will overtake fiat as it will become the dominant currency on hype products at which point people will use fiat only to load up on more hype"

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

See!