TLDR on BLP's $HYPE supply cap:
June 23: Vote to set the cap at 10M
https://t.co/LZdQvLrsQo
July 22: Vote to set the cap at 25M
https://t.co/zmHu34iazA
October 1: Vote to set the cap at 35M
https://t.co/hvEkgmZvxb
Why rush to raise the cap from 25M $HYPE ($2.2B) to 35M $HYPE ($3B) when less than 13M $HYPE ($1.14B) is currently supplied?
Supply has grown from 10M to almost 13M $HYPE since September 17, so it’s growing fast.
But at the current pace, they could’ve waited another month or so until it was closer to 20M, before raising the cap from 25M to 35M.
Maybe they expect a lot of $HYPE to be supplied soon?🫣
If I had to sketch a scenario for another $HYPE airdrop, I’d lean toward:
- an announcement in Singapore on Oct 5, 2026
- a distribution on Nov 29, two years after Genesis
- an initial selloff followed by a recovery stronger than people expect.
I’m treating this as a thought exercise. I can’t claim to know more than anyone else.
My rough guess is 4% of the total (1bn) supply, or 40m HYPE. Against roughly 298.7m circulating, that would add 13.4% if the whole allocation enters circulation, before other supply changes. Meaningful supply, but much smaller than Genesis.
If traders are pricing in a larger drop, less supply than expected could become the bullish surprise.
And the ecosystem worth rewarding has changed massively.
Approaching two years since Genesis, users who missed the first drop have kept generating activity and fees.
New traders, deployers, markets and apps have opened entire new verticals. Nobody is owed anything, but I’d expect another distribution to recognise contributions around HIP-3, HIP-4, Portfolio Margin and apps using builder codes, alongside a small allocation for independent builders.
Rewarding the users and doers making HL useful would fit its ethos.
The capacity to absorb a distribution has evolved too.
Portfolio margin accommodates eligible accounts <$25m in account value, and global supply and borrowing caps have increased... a LOT.
With HYPE usable as collateral, it gives recipients another reason to retain tokens while trading. That could help absorb part of a drop this year.
Then there’s the reported plan for a roughly $320m OTC sale of team tokens.
My buyer guesses would include Coinbase or ICE, NYSE’s parent. BlackRock sourcing HYPE to seed its own ETF is another possibility.
Coinbase’s announced USDC treasury deployer role and ICE CEO Jeff Sprecher’s meetings with the team and praise for the build give the first two names some context, although Sprecher also raised regulatory concerns (I think these are behind us now at least in US?). A completed deal would show serious appetite.
The Oct 5 event leaves 55 days before Nov 29. That gives HSI, other DATs and institutions time to raise capital and position, plus room for another registration or acceptance-of-terms window if required.
The community’s NFT #62 interpretation around Hypurr’s Sept 28 post fits that date too
Exactly 62 days before Nov 29. I can see a possible hint if the interpretation is right, although the collection’s anniversary already explains the post.
What could really drive the recovery is anticipation of what comes next.
Further rewards could bring a huge wave of activity. If that translates into sustained fee-paying usage, I’d expect revenue ATHs. More revenue reaching the Assistance Fund means more HYPE buybacks.
The market could price that growth before or during the drop, with activity and buybacks continuing afterward.
Further distributions could also help decentralise token ownership which I believe the team value a lot.
That doesn’t require a predictable points season.
Given Jeff’s focus on real users and limiting farmers’ share of rewards, I could see further retroactive airdrops without another formal season ever being announced.
Unpublished dates and criteria would leave the team free to adjust around markets, HYPE’s price and platform growth.
Avoiding explicit promises could also reflect legal or regulatory caution. That’s my read of a possible approach.
Put those factors together and I can see the initial selling being absorbed faster than expected.
If traders heavily short to hedge allocations while institutional bids, collateral demand and buybacks show up, covering could accelerate the recovery.
Whatever happens, I don’t think I could really be disappointed.
My appreciation for HL doesn’t depend on an airdrop or getting this call right. I’m forever grateful to Jeff, the team and everyone building it for what they’ve already done for the industry, the ecosystem and the community.
What do you think chat?
So you’re telling me $HYPE dipped below $90 just 5 days before AF receives its first ~$15M payout from Circle, which will be used for buybacks?
I don’t believe the additional ~$500K in daily revenue is priced in yet.
That’s roughly $185M in annualized revenue, and these numbers will only keep growing as the ecosystem expands.
There can’t be a bigger winner than Hyperliquid over the next few years.
And its success will be reflected in the price of only 3 assets across the entire market:
$HYPE, $PURR (dat) and $PURR (meme).
Let that sink in.
C’est désormais possible d’utiliser Hyperliquid en lending / borrowing sur ton $HYPE et ton $BTC
En gros, c’est comme le Portfolio Margin, sauf que là, c’est toi qui choisis combien tu empruntes
J’ai pas testé, mais de ce que j’ai compris, tu peux également retirer les USDC que tu empruntes de la plateforme pour faire mumuse ailleurs avec
L’option est dispo directement dans l’onglet « Earn », avec les boutons « Borrow »