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Global Macro

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@conksresearch wait, doesn't 2bp on gc repo drive everything else??! And TGA straight up goes into NVDA

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@nickgiva1 it is not insurance alone. The ships get paid for even when they are stranded. The major risk is if a ship is damaged in a kinetic event, then it's a equipment loss during the most profitable time for shipping.

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@JustinWolfers When institutions cant find a bid they magnanimously offer access to retail

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@WeTheBrandon @DavidBeckworth De-dollarization doesn’t need a press conference. It is already moving faster than dollar exceptionalists acknowledge, and slower than de-dollarization advocates claim. That’s precisely the range where it gets ignored — until it isn’t.

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@WeTheBrandon @DavidBeckworth Which means the dollar’s reserve dominance and US equity market depth are mutually reinforcing — but what they’re reinforcing is increasingly habit and incumbency, not underlying structural necessity. These companies could raise capital elsewhere on pure business merit.

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@Quasilocal @ObjRandom NOT Donut ☹️

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@JC_ParetsX always starts with a pitch that HF fees is too high

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@LynAldenContact Different definitions: Japan counts both government and private company-held reserves, while OECD Europe’s figure likely excludes industry-held and delegated stocks spread across member states.

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@BobEUnlimited Always found your markets views way more insightful than these. Let your numbers and AUM do the talking over time.

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@macrocephalopod JaneSt raking in 60Bs in fairly mid to low frequency

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@Trinhnomics it's the premary effect of more deficits, more bonds

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@GlobalMacroZen 1$ per 20mbpd (some of which are their own) comes to ~8bio. The rest coming from dry cargo?!

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@JackFarley96 “Decision makers who are prone to narrow framing consider each choice in isolation.” — Kahneman

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@JackFarley96 @LynAldenContact There’s still a cohort selling USD on the view that a $300bn TGA drawdown forces selling. It doesn’t. But price reflects all flows, including those driven by misplaced or illogical narratives.

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@DerivativesDon anything in eq upside went 10x..