perfect.foresight

thoughts on macro, finance, geopolitics, ...

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

The reason for all financial crises: leveraged bet on garbage.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

How to govern a society? Indoctrinate people with certain values in their childhood (e.g., nationalism, religion). When people grow up, such values cause them to forgo their actual interests and pursue the indoctrinated values that can be fabricated and manipulated.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

Capitalism: 1) China can export ideology with its open-source AI models, because they are cheaper than the U.S. counterparts; 2) the U.S. can export the dollar as a currency via stablecoins, because stablecoin issuers earns the spread between USD collateral and 0% on stablecoins.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

In the last few weeks, USD appreciated: global investors cover USD shorts and reduce USD borrowing (liability side), effectively contracting balance sheets, so the asset side must shrink as well, which pressures global risk assets.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

2 types of "liquidity" issues: 1) various spreads (e.g., SOFR-IOER, negative swap spread, CCB, etc.) widen, which the Fed can control; 2) funding currencies (e.g., USD, JPY, CHF) appreciate and leverage becomes more expensive-the Fed has limited power.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

The future is fully digital. Human brains and memory will be uploaded and live forever. Data storage and electricity generation will be on other planets and guarded by robots. The west will be a digital civilization (hoarding BTC). China lives in the old world (hoarding gold).

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

(1) AI fails to replace humans -> disaster for ROI of AI capex. (2) AI replaces humans -> humans lose jobs and income -> humans can't buy stuff -> companies' ads spending down -> disaster for ROI of AI capex. (3) AI augments humans. How likely is scenario (3)???

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

Narrative slop of 2025: AI agents, humanoid robots. What's the problem? Too fixated on making AI human-like. It's counterproductive and unnecessary.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

@JamesWynnReal What a man can do for love...

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

Inflation is the only constraint on both fiscal and monetary policies.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

How to build an exchange? Spend money on marketing to retail ("non-toxic" or uninformed flows) and invite professionals (e.g., SIC, Jump ...) to "provide liquidity" (aka bet against uninformed retail). No? @Kalshi @Polymarket @HyperliquidX @Aster_DEX

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

$MSTR $MARA $BMNR $SBET $ETHM $BTBT $ETHZ $BTCS #FGNX $FORD $STSS $DFDV $UPXI $TDTH $VVPR $BNC $GLXY $BTOG $TRON $LGHL $NAKA $ZOOZ $BMNU $LMFA $CEP $XXI $ABTC $BRR $ZONE $SQNS $CEPO $COIN

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

#DAT If a DAT, digital asset treasury, is traded at a premium, you either believe the manager can time market of the underlying crypto or can time market of its own shares (when to issue/repurchase). There is NO other value proposition. What's your thought? @saylor @fundstrat

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

@pmarca Don't worry. Financial repression and yield curve control are coming.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

Deregulating the existing financial system is more challenging than building a new system on blockchain. Maybe that's another value proposition of crypto and blockchain.

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

The debt cycle should be overlaid with regulation/deregulation cycle. From 1980s to early 2000s, we had deregulation in the advanced economy, and then after the GFC, regulations tightened. We are entering into a new round of deregulation. The next crisis will come.

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

Change is coming. The current debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are unsustainable. To avoid bad geopolitical outcomes, we must negotiate in a calm, analytical way to get this debt to money problem under control.

Learn more how the big debt cycle works and my proposed solutions in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, available to order here: https://t.co/6vxQS8BFTM

#principles #raydalio #economics #debt

[perfect.foresight @perfect4sight]

The wealth accumulated by some world leaders and their cronies is moving onto blockchains to evade retaliation that will come after future elections. Anti-KYC, anonymous blockchains are the future, the new Switzerland. They serve the elite.